Ballarat Gold Share Discussion Threads

[12vic] 16/5/2005 15:04

I fluttered in RTM extremely briefly but I sold out as soon as I heard the managing director had resigned - it stank of bad news ! I think I held the shares for 2 days max , fortunately I only lost a very small sum - I feel sorry for people still over on that thread they must be sitting on some heavy losses .

I'm much more confident about this one , look at the holders , mostly large institutions like Rambutan points out . BGF is not a traders share but one to hold for growth , my hope is that as the project progresses interest will develop and then people will start jumping onboard . If this happens then people who hold patiently now will benefit . I'm figuring on some more drilling results being released soon ..

[tonystringy] 15/5/2005 01:32

12vic....

Nearly bought into RTM myself but chose BGF instead. Glad I did now......didn't 'feel' right re RTM, don't trust their management at all now after recent events.

[rambutan2] 14/5/2005 17:51

they a holder...

[mbthedude] 10/5/2005 11:18

Take a look at OVG, RNS just out re major acquistion and additional 900,000 ounces of gold reserves along with other mineral tagets. Current market cap only £5.4m will shoot up when this hits the radar.

Looks very promising imo DYOR.

[12vic] 03/5/2005 20:40

This share doesn't seem to have much following over here which I find strange when you consider the stage this company has got to . I think the main thing about this which appeals to me though is that it hasn't turned into a day traders share , the shares are held very tightly which is evident by the lack of trading , people seem very happy to hold and wait until the next news releases come along . There is large institutional holding as well which provides confidence . My gut feeling is that when we get news of further mine development , commencement of ore mining and the build up to plant commissioning the price will begin to rise with increased interest . If we get a lot of people suddenly jumping on board it won't be long before market makers struggle to find shares . When I compare this to some of the other asx listed miners that people have been throwing there money at like RTM for instance this one looks like an even safer investment !

[latifs100] 28/4/2005 23:05

180k bought at 9.5 p.. and no movement.. tight mms.
not much interest shown here in uk.. its doing great in oz.

[latifs100] 28/4/2005 23:03

180k bought at 9.5 p.. and no movement.. tight mms.
not much interest shown here in uk.. its doing great in oz.

[12vic] 14/4/2005 14:22

Taken from the RTM site

The Second-Best Time to Buy Mining Stocks
By Albert J. Matter
April 11, 2005

The absolute best time to buy a mining stock is just prior to the drilling of the 'discovery' drill hole which makes the nightly news and sends the penny stock soaring to extraordinary highs! (see Fig 1, Item 1-3, Discovery hole) This is a difficult task as statistics show that over 600 properties have to be drilled for each ore body that is discovered and subsequently made into a mine. It can be a daunting and expensive proposition trying to cover your bets by speculating in all the penny dreadfuls.

The experience we have enjoyed over the past 30 years suggests there is a second best time to buy mining equities. That is when a qualified management team is preparing to convert/construct a single 'ore body' mining company into a producing mine. A purchase of mining stocks during this development/construction period has produced significant gains with a favorable risk/reward ratio.

Mines are Not Discovered, They are Made!

Ore bodies are usually "discovered" during an "up-cycle" in metal prices as the mining industry and the speculative publics enthusiastically spend money on exploratory drilling. One or two discoveries are made and the enthusiasm spills over into all the penny exploration companies. It can take two to four years to fully "prove" a discovery while the short-term "up-cycles" in metals prices are often as brief as one to three years. Thus discoveries are often brought into production, made into mines, in the following (or possibly later) up-cycle in metals prices.

The difference between the real discoveries and the promotional clones is not always signaled by their price action in the stock market. They both go up during the general enthusiasm for the shares of any companies nearby the
'discovery' (Fig 1, Item 2, Anticipatory/discovery rise) and down when metal prices recede (Fig 1, Item 4, Confirmation/disinterest slide).


Model of Classic Mining Company Share Price Cycle

Figure 1.

.





Companies with bona fide discoveries (those that will ultimately be 'made' into mines) identify themselves by continuing to spend money on their property when metal prices are cyclically weak, (Fig 1, Item 6, Development
/construction period) and when funds are not as readily available from a now less-enthusiastic public, but rather largely from management and longer-term investors.

Buying discoveries can be fun and profitable, and is largely speculation. Buying qualified 'mine making' is investing that can yield significant returns with a favorable risk/reward ratio.

Investing in a 'single' ore body mining stock when it is being readied to go into production (Fig 1, Item 6) provides some of the lowest risk/highest reward mining industry investment opportunities. And results are even better if this period of pre-production/construction coincides with the trough in a market cycle for the stocks of the particular metal.

Low metal prices and disinterest from the speculator community (who often drive the prices of stocks to excess during the discovery period) combine to produce a very depressed price for a mining stock during the confirmation/disinterest slide (Fig 1, Item 4). This is precisely when a good ore body, financed by knowledgeable long-term investors and operated by qualified management, can be bought in anticipation of substantial gains during the pre-production and production period, compounded when metal prices recover from cyclical weakness.

The Big Payoff

There is significant capital gain potential as the market begins to anticipate and discount the production of metal and the consequent earnings (Figure 1, Items 6 through 8). The maximum appreciation is recorded if the mine is being readied for production during a period of metal prices weakness and begins pouring metal and generating earnings as prices are trending up again.

In thirty years of identifying ten such companies, all but one have equaled or exceeded their discovery highs by more than 100%! The price rises from their confirmation/disinterest lows to their production/cash flow highs have produced 300-1000% gains.

Conclusion

One of the best times to invest in a mining stock is during the construction – pre-production period when a qualified 'single' ore body mining management team is going about the work of 'making mines'.


This article was originally published in The Oxford Club Communique. The Oxford Club, founded in 1984, has become one of the largest financial organization of its kind with over 65,000 members in over 110 countries.

[12vic] 08/4/2005 10:21

That's interesting Ken and seems to support my feelings that people are looking at this as a medium term rather than a short term play , holding for something significant rather than a quick gain . I agree that this is the kind of exploration share that might normally be treated as speculative - but I see Ballarat as in different class to your average small/medium size explorer mining company . Their project is viable and now fully funded , some $ 50 million Aus have already been invested in infrastructure and there is now an investment bank in position willing to open additional credit facilities if necessary - all of these in my mind underline the current share price and confidence going forward .

[kayp] 08/4/2005 08:34

As I mentioned a lot earlier on this bb I purchased my stock through an Australian broker before they floated on Aim. The brother of the broker I use is the MD of the company, and although this does not enable me to get additional information I do know the broker has a large holding which he has recently added to, and that he is very enthusiastic about the stock. Normally I would be a little nervous of investing in this situation but having spent some time researching the stock before buying I feel it is well managed and will shortly be a profitable producer.

Ken

[12vic] 07/4/2005 20:12

Thanks for joining in Ken , I was starting to wonder if I really was the only person looking at this .
There's several things about this share that make me think it will do well .
1. It appears to be entering the final most significant stages of mine development .
2. Unusually for a mining exploration company they have no obvious financial problems and actually look very strong .
3. In terms of inferred resource there is probably more to come as the project moves on .
4. People appear to be keen to keep hold of their shares rather than trade them on price increase . Since end of March price has moved up from 7.5 p to 10 p on very low volume , approx 300,000 trades of which only 30,000 have been sells . There have been 2 very positive rns's in this short time and normally I'd have expected to see some profit taking into strength but this hasn't happened which I take as a fairly positive sign that people are holding as they are confident of far more in the future . Although the trading patterns are different in Oz (much higher volume ) , I believe there is much the same underlying feeling over there .

I think we can expect a period of slow steady growth as the mine production work continues , then like you say a build up of interest towards the end of the year .

Jon

[kayp] 07/4/2005 18:50

12vic,

Still reading,watching and holding. I agree with your comments about the potential which becomes more obvious with each piece of news. I think the lead up to September will see a little more interest and by then the buyers will be paying more for their shares.

Ken

[12vic] 07/4/2005 14:37

I think there may be a bit of a stock shortage building . Just checked comdirect max buy volume 7,500 / max sell volume 75,000 , they're obviously keener to get hold of these than sell them . Notice that a 100,000 buy went through this morning .

[12vic] 06/4/2005 23:21

And price up here again as a result today ! I get the impression this must be one of those hidden gem shares nobody knows much about . A small mining company thats got a 1 million + inferred resource ( with potential for much more ) , loads of money in the bank , a project beyond pre-feasability study , a major bank trying to throw money at it , mine currently under construction , and plenty more money due in in September from a maturing rights issue . Initial production expected 100,000 rising to 200,000 ounces a year , a projected mine life of 21 years . I can't think of a much better scenario to be in at this stage of a companys development . Hopefully somebody's reading this ?

[12vic] 06/4/2005 06:22

Up 2.5 cents in Australia at the moment - still only me watching ?

[12vic] 05/4/2005 20:45

This is worth a look - bit dated but explains the project .

[12vic] 05/4/2005 18:41

Large amounts of money in the bank , recent institutional placement 2.5 times oversubscribed , Investec bank offering further credit facilities , great drilling results . All main projects fully funded moving forward ahead of schedule - am I the only one interested in this share ?

22/12/05 - AND NOW PRODUCING GOLD !!!!

Predicted initial mine life 21 years at 200,000 ounces per Annum . Not to mention 3 further large projects fully funded and under development .

Ballarat Goldfields does not Hedge production !!!

www.Ballarat-goldfields.com.au

[latifs100] 14/3/2005 10:53

spread too big here in uk.. better to buy in oz. 10p arrived

[latifs100] 04/3/2005 08:41

moved up in australia.. now 21 cents.. mms being tight shud be around 10p..wdik?

[sawbones] 23/2/2005 13:18

It does but it seems that the recent 'gold fever' has taken too many casualties and hence the apparent lack of interest!I am researching it as we speak!

[rambutan2] 23/2/2005 13:00

drilling report reads well.

[sawbones] 23/2/2005 12:52

for more info-

[rambutan2] 07/2/2005 11:40

interesting that they a holder. baker steel v respected players...

[kayp] 26/1/2005 20:19

I am interested and following. Purchased my holding on the ASX prior to the flotation on aim. The broker I use happens to be the brother of the MD and holds a lot of stock himself. As the story unfolds I think we will see this attract a few more investors as the company appears to be moving nicely towards completing the mine development plan.

Ken

[latifs100] 26/1/2005 14:55

up another 7% today.. anyone not following this or not interested