Balanced Commercial Prop... Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 26/9/2022 07:25

Bought a few more this morning but very much catching a falling knife. Have a tiny few in an a/c that I bought at just over 70p during Covid, held all the way up to 120p's, now they're back at 82p - surely they won't revisit 70p? Never say never in this market.

(The foreign shopper VAT change, and chronic pound, will surely help London/St Chris's, but clutching at straws).

[nickrl] 21/9/2022 13:59

BCPT H1 results out which add a little more background from the NAV report and the numbers of course.

Void rate up 2% to 6.5% mainly down to and office in Uxbridge. They also report that all remaining vacancies at Newbury & Solihull retail pks are under offer or have an AFL is a positive.

21% of the portfolio has some "partial inflationary" protection (Specto you should approve of the language!!)

As you would expect they report the most positive asset mgt events including St Chris place but given they are all at least 3mths old now its not really a guide to where things are now so lets see what they say at next NAV but this comment gives the tone

"However, no further acquisitions have been made during the during the period as relative pricing throughout H1 2022 has made investment for long-term performance increasingly challenging"

and

"Recently we have seen a marked shift in sentiment, as economic headwinds have led to a cooling in investment activity and consequent pricing uncertainty"

Rental i/c down nearly 10% or £3m - have they sold much?

Running costs are up £1.2m over H1/21 and that was flattered by 0.5m of rent recoveries mainly gone on property running costs.

So at cash level they haven't covered the current dividend rate and whilst they have plenty of cash in the bank to get through the lean times coming you can see they are exposed now to any further decline in rental income although of course the more shares they buyback the less the dividend will cost.

[hindsight] 14/9/2022 14:02

Thanks, you sum it up perfectly
Land reg will expediate if have good reason, have used that lately

[spectoacc] 14/9/2022 10:27

@hindsight - 3 months is the new 1 month, when it comes to completions.

Land Reg still hasn't caught up from 2020 Covid disruption - some things are taking a year plus (particularly minor title changes).

Solicitors are indeed worse than ever - a combination of WFH, and a preposterous increase in workload. Logically, if things that used to get out the door in 4-6 weeks are now taking 12-15 weeks, that's a lot of extra files piling up.

Good luck - enormously frustrating when the buyer is keen, the seller is keen, but nothing gets done for months.

[hindsight] 14/9/2022 08:31

Here trying to sell a empty BTL to buy property via trusts. All I know, is one is wrong or maybe they both are, but in theory capture the spread one day
Use the word trying as solicitors on a different planet these days. Was never a fan but now .......

[nickrl] 13/9/2022 20:28

Specto logically your absolutely correct in #320 but we are seeing selling across the board with plenty of volume even with a willing buyer yet we get no RNS's suggesting big holders are the sellers. Bit perplexing really.

[spectoacc] 13/9/2022 14:23

Not ruling out lower first!

[cwa1] 13/9/2022 14:07

LOL, you know I'm going to quote you on that if push comes to shove, right? ;-)

[spectoacc] 13/9/2022 14:02

NAV 148.6p, I think you'll be OK :)

Good luck.

[cwa1] 13/9/2022 13:54

Sack it. Took a few at 93.8p. Gulp. Wonder how expensive that will look in a few days/weeks time...

[spectoacc] 13/9/2022 13:51

The buy-back's gone a bit quiet, last was 2m at 104.5p. Looks a better value now!

BCPT's cheap IMO, but sentiment is against it.

[cwa1] 13/9/2022 13:48

Mildly, slightly. tempted here. Should I just go and have a lie down instead?

[spectoacc] 07/9/2022 17:18

Suspect the "willing buyer" isn't active on all days - but will find out tomorrow. Also suspect it sometimes gets filled very early in day, at high prices, & then heavily sold beyond.

Truss - am reserving judgement on the mooted energy cap, but if she persists with reversing the NI rise, and cutting taxes, that's going to force interest rates higher than they'd otherwise have been.

However, can't see anything new today to justify these further falls. And might well be saying the same thing tomorrow & beyond too.

[nickrl] 07/9/2022 16:00

So Truss is doing big energy announcement tomorrow which looks like it will neutralise anymore unit increase for domestic and business consumers as well as knocking 4-5% off the CPI increase. So in the short term people keep spending and maybe takes the peak off IR rise although in the long run the money has to come from somewhere. Thus short terms things don't feel anywhere as bad but market says otherwise and bizarre that BCPT got forced down so much today given there is a willing buyer in the market.

[cwa1] 07/9/2022 15:22

The key dates for this interim dividend are as follows:

Ex-Dividend Date
Record Date
Pay Date 15 September 2022
16 September 2022
30 September 2022

Apologies for formatting!

[spectoacc] 07/9/2022 14:59

Trying to sit on hands when there's so much downside on the charts, but couldn't resist a few today.

[spectoacc] 05/9/2022 06:52

2m bought back at c.1.04 on Friday, good to see they're doing decent size now it's fallen back, albeit they're still over-paying.

Should have a decent offsetting effect on any future NAV falls.

Hope they're paying no more than a pound today. Meanwhile, last NAV 148.6p.

[danny500] 26/8/2022 19:32

@vacendak

Thanks for your reply, very informative as I wasn't aware the NAV ignored the treasury shares.

[vacendak] 26/8/2022 07:49

@Specto

Yep, forgot to mention the index linked rents. I am sure the info is buried somewhere in the ARs but it is not something we read about much in the RNS or other news articles.

[vacendak] 26/8/2022 07:46

@danny500



My take is that the published NAV already ignores the treasury shares, since they are ignored for the EPS calculations.
As for "how much would this increase the NAV by"? I would put the question upside down. The NAV is increased intrisically at the time of the repurchase. When they repurchase they issue an RNS with the share numbers that are involved and the total share number to consider for voting rights/income distribution. One can work out the resulting increase in NAV from that as a ratio if not already stated in the RNS.

Keeping or cancelling the treasury shares afterwards would not affect the NAV.
ITs mention the amounts of shares repurchased (or released from treasury or even created) in their annual and interim reports, and give the effects on NAV: Increase for a repurchase, dilution on emission.

Companies are limited in the percentage of treasury shares they can hold (I have read it somewhere), but share cancellations are rare. Not sure if there are any cost of holding shares in treasury, but if there were these would still be less that paying fees for a placement of new shares.

[spectoacc] 26/8/2022 07:29

Thanks, interesting read - must admit I didn't know 21% of the rent roll was index-linked (no doubt subject to the usual collar/cap caveats).

They've been "robust" on Industrial eh - hmm.

Positive comments on retail parks & St Chris's footfall, I still see this as being where the upside is.

[vacendak] 26/8/2022 07:23

BCPT in The Telegraph today:



Nothing we did not already know beyond the motivation on why they bought logistics near the top.

[danny500] 25/8/2022 12:12

93 million shares held in treasury is saving about £372k per month in divi payments or £4.4m per year.

If the treasury shares were cancelled how much would this increase the NAV by? Anyone

[hindsight] 05/8/2022 17:43

Yes not good, especially as I would rather they battened the hatches for now.

[vacendak] 05/8/2022 16:59

True.
They'd better show strong NAV growth at the next update to make that 118.66p look like insider trading.