Baillie Gifford China Gr... Share Discussion Threads

[vacendak] 25/11/2020 09:38

The October factsheet is out:


The format is the same as before, only the numbers, no running commentary or any more information on the holdings beyond the top ten.

Odd thing is that by the end of October the total assets had shrunk by £35mils (£240.44 mils in September, £205.88mils end of October). It may have been due to the stocks churning (moving from WPC to BGCG). Then again, the NAV was duly up from September 30th. Maybe I am missing something.

The premium was only 6% back then.

Alibaba now represents 13.1% of assets, up from 9.4%.

[ali47fish] 24/11/2020 18:17

Vacendak-so you bought the oiec/ unit trust- analysts including the AIC have always found that over the long term trusts always outperform- i am happy to stay in the latter in spite of the premium

[gp1948] 23/11/2020 09:14

vacendak - thanks for posting that clip. Baillie Gifford certainly sound very enthusiastic for this unit trust, but the premium to the NAV (25% with the latest figures) puts me off buying.
As an alternative, I have bought into the Baillie Gifford China fund which has a similar set of constituents to the BG China Growth trust, but excludes the unlisted companies. The price for the fund is quoted daily at the NAV of the fund and there's no stamp duty to pay.

[vacendak] 22/11/2020 10:33

Got this from a weekly news round-up email:

[vacendak] 20/11/2020 19:36

BoJo should threaten to nationalise it. :)
It scared people away from investing in Heathrow, this could work here.

I am also surprised at the decision to stop the treasury shares issueance. Maybe they have run out of investment ideas, or do not want to add too much to a position to avoid concentration?
Not that offloading the shares did much to cool down the premium to be fair.

[ali47fish] 20/11/2020 18:24

ivenever heard of an investment being shorted- dont knowhattomake of this- why doesnt the board take action to moderate the premium?


Trust Watch: ‘Eye-watering’ China Growth attracts short-seller; Peel Hunt bargains
By Gavin Lumsden 20 Nov, 2020 at 17:52
Metage shorts China Growth

This week in a break with tradition we start with the expensive table where there are several interesting stories.

Baillie Gifford China Growth (BGCG) remains a stock to watch - if not to buy - with its shares reverting to a 34% premium over net asset value, double what it was last week, a level that Peel Hunt analysts called ‘eye-watering’ and earned it a high 4.9 Z-score to put it at the top our list.

Data from the Financial Conduct Authority shows that Metage Capital, the multi-asset investor that has backed the board of Gabelli Value Plus (GVP) in its attempt to wind up against the opposition of its largest shareholder, has taken a short position in BGCG shares, hoping to profit if the share price bubble bursts.

According to the FCA, on 5 November Metage raised its bearish position in the trust from 0.8% to 1.15%. The bet against the share price has had little effect so far with the shares soaring to a 33% premium to NAV on 9 November. As I reported last week, this prompted analysts at JPMorgan Cazenove, the trust’s broker, to cut their recommendation from ‘overweight217; to ‘neutral’; and flag up Fidelity China Special Situations as a cheaper alternative. The shares - up over 55% in the past three months after Baillie Gifford took over what was formerly Witan Pacific - have been volatile this week dropping to an 11% premium, only to return to 34% at yesterday’s close. They have tumbled 7% today, underlining Baillie Gifford’s own discreet caution on its website that ‘shares bought at a high premium to net asset value can quickly lose substantial value if the premium is eroded.’

The spike in the share price comes as Baillie Gifford has promoted the trust’s relaunch to investors, including an online event this month with Citywire. Interestingly, the trust appears to have paused the issuance of new shares which might have fed investor demand and moderated the premium. It last issued shares a week ago despite having over 16m left in treasury to sell if it wished to. By yesterday the red-hot stock had posted a one week gain of 15% (see third side), although they have tumbled 7% today.

[vacendak] 20/11/2020 11:16

Weeee!!!!!
We are going down the slide again at break neck speed.

Someone must have noticed that "sp up and NAV down" was not a sustainable investment prospect after all.

[gp1948] 19/11/2020 13:32

Share price now at a 34% premium to NAV - madness!

[vacendak] 19/11/2020 09:11

Still a while to retirement, so this can safely be a ten year hold for me. I expect some rollercoaster slide at some point indeed.

[uapatel] 19/11/2020 08:08

Decided to sell up and watch the price/NAV. Was waiting on the full list of holdings but the premium does feel a bit heavy. Good luck all still holding.

Will step back in when things feel a bit more rational, as exposure to China growth is a definite for me.

[gp1948] 18/11/2020 09:06

Metage Capital have been shorting this share from 5th Nov - I suspect because of the premium to NAV which is due for a correction.

[montynj] 18/11/2020 08:20

24% premium to NAV..crazy

[vacendak] 18/11/2020 07:52

Momentum? Irrationality?
People have been thinking this of Tesla, my humble self included, for quite a while now. Then again, this is a relatively small specialist IT (couple of hundred mils), so those who pour their money in have at least made the effort of looking for it.
There must be some ounces of reason behind this, we still do not know much about what is in it. The latest factsheet is getting old now (September 30).

[pjw956] 17/11/2020 22:21

todays rns shows nav at 442p, yes its at least a day out,
but todays closing price of 542p
shows a premium of 100p , sooner or later that gap has to fall.

[vacendak] 16/11/2020 13:32

Back to +9.28% at pixel time.
The magic beans are sprouting again!

It seems well traded too, relatively small spread, so the volatility is mostly powered up by the silly premium. The next sneeze will lead to a sharp drop like last week.

There is no gearing, but the premium acts as gearing/multiplier.

[montynj] 16/11/2020 10:50

Still ridiculously high premium to NAV...more downside risk to shares

[vacendak] 16/11/2020 10:50

@ali47fish
I have not had an account with the FT for years. I use NoScript with Firefox, but I have checked in Bing/Edge on my mobile and they seem to work.

Not all tickers/stocks have the same available information for some reasons. So, changing the ticker in the URL may not always work indeed.
Not every stock is followed by financial analysts for instance, or not often, so the FT entry can be missing or seriously out of date.

[ali47fish] 16/11/2020 10:01

vacendak-many thanks- you have to be subscribed tothe ft site-are you? your links gives a page that is different from the one when you put a ticker in the search box the latter has also a frorecast page which i cant access not being subscribed!-i am puzzled

[uapatel] 16/11/2020 09:38

China-Rest of Asia trade deal seems to have focused attention on China growth again.

[vacendak] 16/11/2020 09:32

Going back up a bit today at market opening.

Phew... I was getting concerned. :)

[vacendak] 15/11/2020 19:29

Good place for basic info:


Discount/premium graph:


They put it at 14.19%.

At last Thursday close with Thursday's NAV: 15.8% premium.

The latest published NAV was up a bit, so with the share price drop, the premium should indeed go down a bit.

[ali47fish] 15/11/2020 16:57

pjw do you mind indicating the premium/discount please!

[pjw956] 12/11/2020 21:06

nav is circa 422, time to get real

[pjw956] 12/11/2020 21:03

if fcss and jcgi trade at or just below nav then there is no reason for this one to trade so far positive. Much further to fall imho.