Bahamas Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[specialistslegion] 08/2/2020 18:33

You see - 1lovejoy is another one of the idiots here. These guys cannot accept the reality of share trading - you must be blindly positive on all events irrespective of the facts or you will be mocked. SAD but that is a result of a lack of knowledge and experience in markets.

Individuals are irrelevant over the long term (technicals and flows only move a stock in the very short term - only fundamentals make a long term difference to valuation) - If i keep on saying this stock will go BUST it will have Zero impact on the share price the same way that a muppet who says it will be 50p tomorrow will have a Zilch impact on the price. Therefore instead of fooling yourself by talking the stock up try to understand the fundamentals and the levers needed to move the shares. At this stage only the actual release of the CLN will have a positive impact as it further increases the chance of a drill and hence has a positive impact on valuations by decreasing the implied cost of capital of the project. In my view if the CLN is released we will hit +4.5p.

On the question of selling 13.5M shares in one go or in 1M batches the answer is simple. This stock is illiquid and you donot want to keep hitting the bid so the best idea is to leave the whole lot with one house - they will never show the whole sell volume on the book but if there was a big buyer out there (evident from frequent offers appearing on the same price) then the MM (selling) can contact the relevant MM (buying) in the other house and offer them more stock. That way the price decline is better managed and the market will not think there is an endless volume of selling coming (at that time MMs will mark the price down if it becomes clear that there is continuous selling with no end in sight).

Again at this stage I remain significantly long - however I have said it before (in a moment of sanity) on this board - that I do not punt -most of you guys do - I invest. The Friday sales is an adjustment of the book only. On release of CLN (I put the chance at +80% - hence my adjustment was to reflect the 20% risk of it not happening) I expect BPC to hit 4.5p+ and we should move upwards towards 6p by the time of the drill, but remember on the day drilling starts we will be down around 10-15% (that is just a normal market behaviour of travel and arrive). However I expect the stock to remain firm throughout the drill period but I will be adjusting positions again in that period and most of you will do well to do so as well.

Have to go out for dinner but I wish you all a great weekend

[1lovejoy] 08/2/2020 17:49

I wish you would sell all you're shares so I stop reading you're drivel.

[bunz3] 08/2/2020 16:41

interesting to see how after 13.500.000. trade some prices moved upwards with trades showing at 3.50 .when drilling starts be interesting to see level share price be at

[bigsi2] 08/2/2020 16:18

Stewart-I think there could be a few nasty "surprises" ahead over securing necessary funds.and even with major contracts confirmed I don't think it will be all plain sailing up to higher share price at spud - not with the sword of Damocles CLN hanging overhead.Each to there own but for me it's all about timing - locking in profits on gains and buying the dips -I don't plan to have anywhere near the size of holding I accumulated at OO for TD - not a fan of binary outcomes on 30-35% COS Hopefully a good result at TD for the many long term holders ... they deserve it

[dhb368] 08/2/2020 16:13

SpecialistsLegion: If I may ask a question to which the answer seems obvious, do you get a significantly better average price selling that way rather than dropping 1M 13 times? Or perhaps the question should be how much better would you expect to get?

[stewart4990] 08/2/2020 16:09

BigSi2,Just off for a pint, hope you are buoyant for next week, still wonder about flippers with the MF at 2p no one seems to have an opinion we'll see.Regarding that 13.5M trade it must have been a worked sell through the day which is why the price fell and moved up after the trade shown. No expert but seems obvious to me.IMHO.

[robwalsh25] 08/2/2020 16:00

Well u must be a Dutchman’s uncle then because it was a Buy.

[bigsi2] 08/2/2020 15:52

Read the threads properly and you will understand the "weak holder" taunt- for the rest if that wasn't a sell then I'm a Dutchman's uncle -price dropped from open and continued to fall on high buying volume - then once the sell order filled the price rebounded- textbook

[man1] 08/2/2020 14:47

Update Mon / Tues no doubt ...

[robwalsh25] 08/2/2020 14:44

It was a Buy.

[thatsmart1] 08/2/2020 11:50

From the RNS.

'To the extent that the initial subscription proceeds of the Fund exceed this predefined amount, the Fund may either request to acquire additional new shares directly from the Company (should the Company agree to issue such shares), or the Fund may seek to purchase existing shares openly on AIM, making the required market disclosure in either scenario.'

Only the outstanding amount up to 7th Feb can be bought and then only with the permission of the company. They may give permission for say 13.5m or thereabouts but 500m??? Pigs may fly.

[themexicanone] 08/2/2020 11:35

Wow. Great post Specialist

[dhb368] 08/2/2020 10:45

That is a very, very good post SpecialistsLegion.

It is not the first time that I have read a post like that, however it is rare that a knowledgeable poster devotes much time to 'education' as it is often shouted at in response. eg 'showing off' etc.

Good advice and my trading would be much much better if I could do more than appreciate good advice but actually act on it! Especially 'remove emotions' from my trades.

I can see from your trades that you have taken a lot of profit and are probably now running 10M shares at very low or even zero cost. Whatever anyone's opinion you cannot argue with that.

I was watching BPC, didn't have free cash (in reality prioritised adding a less well performing stock as I didn't think that the placing would move the stock so fast!) when the time was right so don't hold, but good luck to all that do.

[pro_s2009] 08/2/2020 02:28

hairballradical (I allow myself one post)........

The BMF can request more shares at 2p over and above the 100m agreed (this is as per the RNS from BPC), if they, in effect, have (via certain Bahamian financial entities) been forward selling at average say 3.25p.... forward sell 300m shares makes circa 10m GBP......then they request 500m shares for the BMF at 2p a share. Company says wow...great, yes we agree, you can have 500m share at 2p and its great to see such massive interest from the Bahamas themselves.......

Company gets its 10m GBP all from the BMF at 2p a share. As the BMF is non-UK domiciled - well - you know.

All hypothetical of course...........

[specialistslegion] 07/2/2020 23:00

Sure. It must hurt you though 😢 but on the other side of this trade I still believe that the risk is on the upside.

It is OK to hold stocks for a long time as when funds and trading experience is limited it is the safer bet. Trading would kill you so keep to your position but follow the data points. Also remember people like me are obviously not always right - no one is. A good trader gets around 55-60% of the trades right. A star trader rarely passes 65-70%.

The point however is to keep an open mind. The more input you take as long as it is reasonable and that does not exist either on the bull or bear side here the better your decision making ability. Also remember that fundamentals change - be ready to change with it.

A few months ago when the stock tanked it was right to sell and go short as they could have gone bust. After they tapped the shareholders successfully the chance of a drill increased exponentially and hence it was right to go long and to stay long.

Did I lose money in October when the stock tanked - of course I did! Did I make it back and more after buying back around 2.1p - of course I did. Did the SELL today had anything to do with the fundamentals. NO. It was squaring the book and managing the risk only. I still remain significantly long as I believe they will drill and we will see 5-6p.

Therefore I unlike you am ready to change positions as 1) I can 2) I play on a different rule book. That does not make you wrong though as there are many different investment strategies.

You guys however only know one - buy and hold and you think you will make a huge amount and retire😢. No. It does not work that way. Unless you adapt like evolution eventually you will lose - if not here then somewhere else.

At least try to listen to other points of view to make an informed decision. I understand why people like ”11 percent” put you off but then identify who makes sense. BigSi doesnot know everything but amongst you lot seems the most balanced. Identify who makes sense and remove emotions from your investments. I guarantee you that way you will make better decisions.

Meanwhile I remain net long but this stock is going nowhere until the next datapoint which is the CLN and confirmation of the exact drill date.

[linton78] 07/2/2020 22:12

Showing off is the fools idea of glory.

[specialistslegion] 07/2/2020 19:57

... and no BIGSI - it was not a weak holder. Balancing the book and managing risk. Please don’t talk like them because you are long.

[specialistslegion] 07/2/2020 19:55

Just to make idiots feel better. The price will recover next week to around 3.5p until the CLN news.

[specialistslegion] 07/2/2020 19:53

The level of knowledge here in finance is lower than a village in Mozambique trying to speak Chinese having never heard a word of it in their lives. IDIOTS. I executed the SELL.

Still long over 10M.

[specialistslegion] 07/2/2020 19:49

THIS WHOPPY MUST BE A TOTAL IDIOT. If you see a lot of buy orders during the day and the price is falling there must be a big SELLER somewhere and I told you earlier that it will be reported late. Now you have it. It is a Sell but it does not change the fundamentals of the company - IDIOT.

[mistt] 07/2/2020 18:03

@Nsm_107 same feeling here, so I've 75% cashed out. Could go either way. Fair play to those who've stayed all in.

[mistt] 07/2/2020 17:55

My bets are on 3b. TW may not alway be bang on the money but he is close to the talk. My money on a Monday or Tuesday morning RNS on the MF and update on the CLN.