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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Bacanora Lithi. LSE:BCN London Ordinary Share GB00BD20C246 ORDS 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -3.00p -12.37% 21.25p 748,008 13:42:02
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
21.00p 21.50p 24.00p 21.25p 24.00p
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Mining -9.73 -6.81 28.6

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Date Time Title Posts
17/12/201813:18Bacanora Minerals4,043
13/9/201813:37Bacanora Minerals to head back to 60p36
24/10/201710:24BCN 70p to 33p?213

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Bacanora Lithi. Daily Update: Bacanora Lithi. is listed in the Mining sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker BCN. The last closing price for Bacanora Lithi. was 24.25p.
Bacanora Lithi. has a 4 week average price of 21.25p and a 12 week average price of 21.25p.
The 1 year high share price is 157p while the 1 year low share price is currently 21.25p.
There are currently 134,364,872 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 2,221,650 shares. The market capitalisation of Bacanora Lithi. is £28,552,535.30.
pugugly: Numis lowers target to 25p - suggests this on basis that need to raise $240M at say 25p However recent price action (assuming a fund raising going on in the background - (NO not inside)but reading trading tea leaves hints may be at a substantially lower price and therefore far more dilutitive. Also Black Rock disposal appears to be lending? See B1 of notice Could this be the source of the short - That is if it is shorting? However no shorting noted at Nor at So confused - Thoughts?
marvelman: No statement as to "know no reason for the share price increase", clearly they do know a reason and negotiations not allowing them to clarify...yet
fqr714bhp: They will have to do an RNS very shortly about the sharp rise in the share price.
steeplejack: The book build process will determine the placing price.Institutions will be approached to signal their interest. The placing price will be determined by the level of interest.The higher the interest the smaller the discount to the current share price. Subsequently,existing holders will be offered stock at the determined placing price in an open offer.
compnews1: Wood Mackenzie is a well known company whom I have dealt with for many years. They are very good at their work. We can't ignore lithium but at what share price?. I am happy to wait for the outcome of getting financing for the project. Recap - they evaluated the project based 100% equity finance and NPV post tax at 8% discount rate, $11000 lithium price is US$802 million. I have just found a Feasibility Study done by Ausenco for the Sonora Lithium project and on page 10 of the actual report(link below)it said price is the most sensitive variable (as I have previously said on this forum) and that 30% change in price would change the NPV by aprroximately $600 million. In light with this new information done by Wmac, it makes me more vigilant on the share price As they said in the report that NPV is based on 100 equity finance, it seems to me that they fail to get financing at 8% hence their recent decision to go for debt & equity financing. I am no expert on this corporate financing but putting the information gather from various source, I would stay away until their success in getting financing. Ok, share price may go up 5%-10% but it is a safe bet then loosing 30%. Food for thought hxxp://
waccybaccy: At least TW likes this.... If you want to invest in lithium, don't ignore Bacanora By Gary Newman | Sunday 11 February 2018 If you like this, please share this article using the buttons below Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Lithium has been all the rage amongst AIM investors over the past few years, but the reality is that many of the projects which people have been getting excited about will fail to ever actually produce anything. Some of these small outfits have seen crazy increases to their market caps as private investors were driven into a buying frenzy by very early stage exploration results, and then have fallen just as fast when people have woken up to the fact that actually extracting any lithium is many years down the line, if ever. However, there seems to be no doubt that lithium has an important part to play in the future and its use will become even more widespread in batteries, with the potential for high levels of growth in demand – assuming of course that the price stays at a level which makes it viable for people to switch (such as in the case of electric/hybrid cars). I personally don’t see prices for the commodity reaching the highs that some have talked about, as few would be willing to, or could afford to, buy products containing lithium if that became the case. What has surprised me with the ‘lithium rush’ on AIM is that many seem to have ignored the one company which is already at a fairly advanced stage and which is actually likely to reach full-scale production any time soon, that being Bacanora Minerals (BCN). Fair enough, at a share price of 106p to buy and a market cap of £136 million odd it isn’t going to see the potentially huge overnight fluctuations in share price of the tiny outfits (nor can it be as easily manipulated by some of the characters who’ve been involved with pumping other companies). But at the same time a fair bit of risk has already been removed, and if the project turns out to be as good, and valuable, as it looks on paper, then there is still plenty of potential to make a large return by investing longer term and seeing it through to fruition. Bacanora has already proven up the Sonora lithium project in Mexico, where it holds 100% of La Ventana, and 70% interests in Mexilit and Megalit, which all come under this area. A feasibility study has already been carried out which gives the project a net present value (8% discount factor) of in excess of $1.2 billion, and with life of mine operating costs of $3,910/t it is well insulated against fluctuations in lithium carbonate prices – especially given that the study was carried out based upon a flat commodity price of $11,000/t over the life of the mine. At the end of 2017 typical prices in South America were around $14,000/t, significantly higher than the level the study was carried out at, and although I am far less bullish than some on where prices are going, I still certainly see them higher during the life of this mine. There is also potential for further upside to its reserves, which currently stand at nearly 3.7 million tonnes on a proven and probable basis net to Bacanora, via the conversion of lithium still classed in the resources category. Like any major mining project, actually getting it to the production stage won’t be cheap, and a staged development is going to see 17,500tpa produced for the first four years, at a cost of $420 million. Then stage two will see that increased to 35,000tpa, at a cost of a further $380 million. Given that Japanese company Hanwa has already agreed to take between 70% and 100% of stage one production, and has acquired 10% of Bacanora, I would expect that some form of debt funding will be secured for the project. As part of this the company is looking to re-domicile from Canada to the UK, where access to funding is easier to secure, subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals. Additionally, the company is also in the process of taking on another major investor, NextView Capital, which agreed in December to purchase 33 million shares at 94.53p to raise over £31 million, and to take this holding as a long term investment. That is yet to be completed, but the date for doing so has now been extended and it is on track. Bacanora is making a loss – although it does generate some revenue from its Sonora pilot processing plant which has been operating for over two years – and burns through quite a bit of cash, but that is to be expected from a company at this stage. In addition to Sonora, it does also have the Magdalena borate project, also in Mexico, but for the time being the company has decided not to invest any further capital into this project. It also has a 50% interest in Zinnwald in Germany, and although at an earlier stage and with further drilling required, it does already have measured and indicated resources, and Bacanora do have the option to acquire the remaining 50% following the completion of a feasibility study over the next 18 months or so. There is still plenty of risk here, but I think that the upside potential is worth that, especially given that the shares have dropped back recently, having hit highs of 157p in early January, and I would be surprised to see them drop as low as the 94p placing price. This is one to buy and hold for the long term, as it has the potential to be big.
compnews1: Becareful with the valuation of $1.2billion as Investor Chronicle made mistake in their writing - see below which I cut and paste from the subscribed website. The link is posted below if you are subcribed and go in to read it directly otherwise see below. "Bacanora Minerals - Valuation clarification by IC please Thanks for replying to my post and the link. I had a look at the link you replied to my comment. The $1.25 Bn is actually the PRE-TAX at 8% discount, the POST-TAX is $802.4 MM, ie 2/3 worth. Based on these post tax $802MM, IC please give us your view as to the share price is still worth that much? Thanks 11:57 AM on 3/1/2018 Yes, sorry, and thanks for the correction. Our view is as above in the article, that 106p is about fair value given the upcoming financing. Thanks." "Bacano Economics - Here is my take on the project economics 1) the discounting rate of 8% nominal for an AIM company is light - I would expect 10%, based on their economics, the interpolated NPv@10% post tax as a guess is ~ $600MM (vs US$800) 2) Their presentation Dec 2017 is very lack of key impact on NPV for changes in capital expenditures (hyperinflation over the last 10 years in mining & oil industries) and volume is key too as technical risks are high in this kind of project 3)Mexico has a greater political and fiscal risks 4) ok they have low operating costs but these could go up like in the oil industry when oil price was in their high. They did provide some sensitivities but not good enough when compare to the like of Sirius Minerals! . The CAPEX hyperinflation can knock off a hundred million off NPV. and 20% lower volume could easily wipe of a couple of hundred million. Note their CAPEX estimate contingency is lless 10% - boys this is low! Everyone is racing for Lithium extraction so expect costs go up. On the positive sign lithium is on demand over the next 20-30 yrs but there may be alternative! So I think IC is very optimistic on the share price. Financing is important but many banks have lost their shirts for carelessly ignoring all of this costs, volume .ect.. risks. I would NOT rush into this share price - have a look at Sirius Minerals to see how transparent and wide cover their evaluations. Good luck to those who is comfortatable with this level of risks"
simonsaid1: Shares are often sold at negotiated rates, that doesn't mean the market has to follow for some weird unwritten magic reason! Rather it suggests that Cadence needed cash and the buyer had some power in the negotiation. It's possible that they'll instantly dump the shares on the market and harm the BCN share price, but seems unlikely that a 'strategic investor' would go to all this trouble to accumulate for an immediate sale. Easier ways to make a living!
mr j ahmed: i find very strange that lenis doesnt have any bcn shares and few days before she move to the bcn board she force the bcn price up with rem shareholders monies. something is feel wrong with this junks and maybe is warning sign that she pumped the bcn share price before she move to the bcn board for certain reasons.
gilbly: Good evening from Boston. Here for 4 days then move to New York, Philadelphia, then Washington and home. Posted this on REM as Seanywauny requested it. I meant to add a piece on the Magdelena Borate Project but have only managed to do a summary comment re the share price. I have updated the post 11717 but left the REM interest at 12.19% after the 25 July placing rather than make the small change to 11.90% without much impact. DL will no doubt be adding to this in the future. BCN shares also need updating to the latest figure but this is a small change also. These comments are not intended as investment advice; they are only my opinion and take on the potential value of the Sonora Lithium Project. Briefly the RNS news was not that bad, the indications are that the 4 holes south of the El Sauz and the single hole to the East are trending towards the end of the basin of the lithium bearing clay. However it is encouraging that mineralisation is still in evidence. Also there are great indications from the Buenavista surface sampling, with up to 1700ppm lithium values being found. So as we move forward they are planning a larger drilling program to determine the detailed open pit design information and to expand the lithium resource base into the Megalit. No word of whether they are hoping to progress to complete any PFS or a PEA and on to a BFS, but there now appears to be more urgency to increase the resource base which is encouraging and money is available for this. DL has stepped down from two posts and presumably this is to allow more focus on his main interests, so perhaps things may start to motor from now. SONORA LITHIUM PROJECT VENTURE OF BCN AND REM - CURRENT & POTENTIAL RESOURCES, NET PRESENT VALUE (NPV) AND SHARE PRICE ESTIMATE This estimate and guesstimate attempt is based on post 11717 on the REM b/board which was drafted from a REM viewpoint The size of this concession still continues to creep into my thoughts as I still cannot believe the massive potential of the Sonora Lithium Project. REM (19/8/2014) have now exercised their ‘earn in’ option by accelerating the settling of the $1 million exploration costs and have increased their interest to 30% in the JV#2 and have a first refusal to increase this to 49.9% on both JVs. (respective deadline dates are 30th September for JV1 and December 2015 for JV2). This is likely to cost more than the previously agreed arrangement with BCN. However I am unsure if the Canadian rules will apply re any negotiations on this and therefore the timescales involved. With the new funding available to BCN and REM we should be able to advance the required drilling to put the size of the concessions on the map. No doubt that REM will continue to increase their strategic holding in BCN. The estimate reflects the fact we now have battery grade which increases the price from $6,000 / t to $6,500 / t. Also a further increase for LCE to $7,000 / t may be likely in the future and any price increase adds leverage to the mine valuation and eventual share price. Additional leverage to the mine value may also be possible as CO-E has suggested that operational costs may reduced to about $900 / tonne, which would give the net resource value a great boost, however the more conservative costing of $2000 / tone has been used here, which is close to the $1958 / tonne used in the BCN’s documented PEA. The respective resources for LV and JV#1 have been upgraded from 2.413mt to 3.283mt with JV#1 now also in the ‘indicated' category (4/6/2014). Regarding these current resources on LV and JV#1 (3.283mt) we have enough to supply 3 Tesla factories for 20 years and it is likely this resource is going to increase in the future. This just needs the future relevant studies to confirm and fully define and declare the grades and no doubt the FS and BFS will deliver. BCN have their Borate projects and REM have their Austrailian (Yangibana) and Greenland projects. The post covers the following sections: 1. Simple calculations on the CURRENT resource valuation (La Ventana and JV#1) 2. The POTENTIAL resource valuation of the Megalit concession (JV#2) and is based on GUESSWORK and yes it is a big guess which will only be determined with drilling. 3. An estimate at the Net Present Value (NPV) and Share Prices over the concessions based on the current and potential resources for each of: a) La Ventana ('Indicated' resource) b) JV#1 - Fleur / El Sauz ('Indicated' resource) c) JV#2 - Megalit, Buenavista and San Gabriel. NPV calculation is for only one of the 4 parallel trending structures and is based on a GUESS of the resources 4. Estimate of the Neodymium Oxide at Yangibana and a rough estimate of the TREO resource valuation (from a previous exploration). 5. Summary of the calculations 1. CURRENT RESOURCE VALUATION (considering La Ventana and JV#1) mt - is a million tonnes bn - is a billon - JV#1 (Fleur/ El Sauz) - REM own 30% and BCN own 70%. - La Ventana (LV) - BCN own 100%. - REM has now increased their interest in BCN from 11.85% to 12.19%. - (Need to update to 11.9%) - LV had 930K tonnes of LCE or 0.93mt indicated resource, which has now increased to 1.273 mt. - JV#1 had a 1.48mt LCE inferred resource, which is now an INDICATED resource of 2.01mt. - Battery grade confirmed, so rather than $6,000/tonne for LCE it is now $6,500/tonne. - Operating costs of $2,000/tonne as per BCN giving a resource value of $4,500 / tonne. - Possibility of adding leverage to the mine value with a potential increase in LCE price to $7,000 / t or higher and a possible reduction in Op. Costs to $900 / t. - REM shares in issue 5,453,375,717 on 12/6/14. - BCN new shares in issue after placing is 78,174,752 - (Need to update to 78,690,661). - Assume exchange rate USD to £ is 0.595. a) BCN's La Ventana resource is worth 1.273mt x $6,500 /t = $8.2745bn Op. cost is $2,000/t x 1.273mt = $2.546bn. So allowing for Op. Costs, the La Ventana resource worth = $5.7285bn b) JV#1 resource is worth 2.01mt x $6500/t = $13.065bn Op. cost is $2,000/t x 2.01mt = $4.02bn So allowing for Op. Costs the JV#1 resource worth = $9.045bn c) Thus the combined current resource gross value for La Ventana and JV#1 is $21.34bn. with Op cost of $6.57 gives a combined current net resource value for La Ventana and JV#1 of $14.7735bn. d) Current resource values for REM and BCN from LV and JV#1 above are: BCN is worth (0.7 x $9.045bn) + $5.7285bn = $12.060bn = £7.176bn (GBP). REM is worth (0.3 x $9.045bn) + (0.1219 x $12.060) = $4.1836bn = £2.4892bn (GBP) allowing for REM interest in BCN. So BCN is worth about 3 times REM’s resource value for LV and JV#1. e) So REM current resource value per share is £2.4892 bn / 5.454bn = £0.4564 = 45.64 pence. (Resource value per share, not share price) BCN current resource value per share is (£7.176 bn) / 78,174,752 = £91.79. (Excludes the warrents) So that is the estimate of the current resource values based on the resources which are presently defined at the ‘indicatedR17; stage of grading for the LV and JV#1 concessions. However there is significantly more resource potential in the ground if you check out all the news and we are obviously not finished exploring. However this is still very speculative as the drilling has just started and the results are just coming through. COST NOTES / COMMENTS Regarding any additional costs I assume that all costs are attributed to the mining operational cost of approx $2,000 / tonne. The actual operating costs of $1,958 / tonne stated by BCN in their PEA include all costs attributed to the mining process in the table 13 of Key Operating Cost Assumptions. So in fact no additional costs need to be considered. Further these cost may reduce, as the cost of the Metallurgical process in the PEA was for Pugging with acid, whilst the confirmed Roast Leaching process, which gave battery grade, is thought to cost slightly less, so in fact the cost may come down. In their April 2014 presentation notes REM refer to possible lower costs of about $1,500 / tonne for Fleur and El Sauz, if I read this correctly it was because of the higher grades, so the metallurgy is important. This means any reduction in costs will add leverage to the mine resource value. In a recent interview Colin Orr-Ewing suggests $900 / tonne is possible but it does seem on the low side. However he should know as BCN have built and commissioned a workable pilot plant and have already proved that ‘battery grade’ is possible and has also been independently verified. Therefore if this is the case it will increase the resource value after op costs by 23% and this would be another boost to the company’s potential as we can be more competitive and supply cheaper Lithium thus helping to reduce the price of batteries and cars. The pilot plant has also been utilised to produce Li samples for potential buyers to assess and we await news on this front as presumably the companies are in discussions with potential customers. In the recent interview CO-E also stated they had 40 years supply and it was scalable, however I think the current ‘indicatedR17; resources as defined for the LV and JV#2 concessions and last upgraded to 1.273 + 2.01 = 3.238mt is more than enough to keep battery producers supplied for many years. The JV#2 is just starting to be explored but we have a few subtle hints that it will be large and Section 2 guesstimates the resource potential. As the lithium is at the surface the mining will be open cast and easy and inexpensive to mine. There will be local labour available as we are close to a town and this is likely to be fairly cheap The operating costs in BCN report (PEA) include the following: mining at $2.50 / tonne, mechanisation, trucking, supplying water from the river, natural gas, buildings, electricity, transportation, staff and labour and presumably other overhead costs. Roads were not listed and capital, which is listed, would have to be raised to build the mine and the processing. INVESTMENT NOTES So what investment options are open to BCN and REM? On the question of the concessions, REM have stated they are an investment company and their original intention was not to mine the site but to fully explore the ventures and prove and declare the extent of the resource value, then sell it on. This appears to be different to the BCN approach where it looks as if they are in it for the long haul. However REM may have second thoughts given the massive potential of the Sonora project. More recently DL has in fact tweeted he has a ‘mine to start’ and maybe REM will stay invested up to the start stage then sell once in production when the potential is then immediately apparent to one and all. BCN and REM may receive an attractive contract offers for the ore and stay invested for the duration, which may be for many years to come. In this regard they may negotiate a contract with a financial arrangement to allow implementation of the design and manufacturing to facilitate production and at the same time enable them to extend the Megalit exploration work. In the future they may decide to sell part of the Sonora ventures if the price is attractive enough, retaining a part investment for the future, as it is sure to be a big earner in the years to come. This will help to develop other alternative opportunities and investments etc. It may depend on the level of enticement which may lead to a straight purchase of REM or BCN or a part purchase. If BCN are proceeding to production REM may sell to them or sell to another miner or Tesla, Ford or a Mexican Co. Again it may depend on the enticement to strike a deal. Despite the fact REM are an investment Co, I would like to see the REM and BCN venture go ahead and come to production and realise the full potential of this claim. Although REM may not be a miner they may well retain their investment strategy and add stability to the partnership in the medium term. There is nothing wrong staying invested, when and if, BCN eventually start production, as they have worked together and can possibly reach a further agreement on progressing the mine etc. Sonora after all is a large and valuable resource that does not come along every day. Based on the potential resource value the companies should certainly have no problem raising finance to progress the mining or for REM to make purchases or fund a merger deal with BCN. REM must know where they are going with this and probably BCN too, I'm sure, as DL doesn't positively tweet for nothing or invest in a 12% interest in BCN for nothing. Moneyweek ‘s Bengt thinks nobody has spotted this opportunity and some, excluding myself, have been invested in this for well over a year. It just shows how long it takes to be identified as a potential opportunity and highlights the massive difference between being an explorer and a producer. It all takes time and relatively speaking the JV has come a long way in a short space of time, now all we need is a little patience for the Sonora to be developed. As REM are funded for the Greenland exploration and now have $10 million available (YAGM) and have made an immediate draw down of $3 m, further REM buying into BCN may be on the cards, in particular the increase in JV interest from 30% to 49.9%. Also with the BCN placing and listing on AIM there will be adequate monies available for the joint partners to advance their common exploration and take it forward to a definable and feasible project in order to declare real value / worth in the ground. Albeit they define a small area at a time and slowly but surely continue to add shareholder value. It depends on how fast the current resource requires to be declared and proven through PFS, FS and BFS, or perhaps put another way how quick they will need to extract the ore out of the ground. At least the existing indicated grade is valid for use in a FS or PEA. Although the concessions are large it is not just about the Lithium resource value, as there will be other rare metals discovered on the concessions and some of these have already been documented. Continuation of post 2. POTENTIAL RESOURCE VALUE OF JV#2 BASED ON GUESSWORK (not yet drilled but has commenced with drill results due for the first holes) The following is an attempt to value the resources from what we know; however essentially it still remains GUESSWORK until it is adequately drilled and assayed etc. It has not passed unnoticed that there have been a fair number of indications from the REM board on the potential size of these concessions, particularly JV#2. So I think we have been getting plenty hints re the size of the Sonora Lithium claims. As Sonora has 10 concessions what are they actually worth? On 4 June the respective ‘indicated' resources for LV and JV#1 were upgraded from (0.93 + 1.483) = 2.413mt to (1.273 + 2.01) = 3.283mt. The recent upgrade gave no indication of length covered by the new drilling at La Ventana and Fleur / El Sauz, so the potential resource value will be based on the previous post 4514, i.e. over 10Km of drilling a resource of 2.413mt was achieved with a resource value of $10.66bn. BCN / REM have indicated that the Megalit (JV#2) concession has 4 parallel trending structures extending for a 40Km length with Lithium clay identified on the surface. This amounts to an overall length of 160Km compared to the current drill length of 10Km. (It covers 234,291 acres with 247,451 acres covering JV#1 and JV#2 ). It is hard to comprehend that a resource can extend for 160km or about 100 miles. i.e.approx from Newcastle to Edinburgh. So if these parallel trending sequences of the Megalit concessions are consistent and contiguous fields in line with what has been drilled and with similar Lithium concentrations, is it conceivable that we may be looking at a 16 fold increase on the previously calculated resources of 2.413 mt for the 10Km drilled length. Assuming this is the case and we allow for $2000 operating costs, we have: a) A resource tonnage of 16 x 2.41 = 38.56mt. b) A resource value of 38.56mt x $4,500 / t = $173.5bn or £103.23bn. (GBP). Potentially a very large resource value, but still only guesswork until drilled. Currently Megalit ownership (JV#2) is: BCN own 70% and REM now own 30% and ignoring REM's current 12.19% interest in BCN, the potential resource valuations becomes: c) BCN resource is worth (0.7 x $173.5bn) = $121.5bn (USD) or £72.292bn (GBP). A resource value per share of £72.292bn / 78,174,752 = £924.75 (GBP.) i.e. over 20 years, £46.24 /year. d) REM resource is worth (0.3 x $173.5bn) = $52bn (USD) or £31bn (GBP). A resource value per share of £31bn / 5.4534bn = £5.68 (GBP). i.e over 20 years, 28.4p / year. Allowing for REM interest of 12.19% in BCN ($14.81bn), we have: e) REM resource value increasing from $52bn to $66.8108bn or £39.73bn Combining the LV and JV#1 resource values with the JV#2 guesstimate gives: f) A total resource = 40.973mt and a resource value of £14.773bn + $173.5bn = $188.273bn. g) REM total resource value = $4.1836 + $ 66.8108bn = $70.994bn. h) BCN total resource value = $12.06 + $121.5 = $133.56bn It is obvious that the BCN resource value is almost twice REM and with significantly less shares in issue than REM this will lead to a higher resource value per share. So that's an update on a guesstimate as to the resource value of the JV#2 / Megalit concessions. Remember the JV#2 resource at this stage is just a guess for the time being and purely speculative and only my viewpoint at the moment; however a large drilling program is now being targeted for the Megalit exploration. Note all other REM and BCN projects have been neglected but there may be some news re these resources shortly as progress is being made. A SIMPLIER APPROACH TO ESTIMATE THE POTENTIAL RESOURCE VALUE OF JV#2 (Still uses $10.66bn and not the $14.77bn with the upgrade as unsure of the LV and JV#1 drilled length) A much simpler approach is to consider that we completed drilling over a 10Km length across La Ventana and JV#1 and now have an indicated resource worth of $10.66bn which is equivalent to just over $1bn per 1Km of length. Therefore with the Megalit structures of (4 x 40Km) = 160Km, we have a potential resource value of roughly $160 bn. Nice and easy to remember a Megalit valuation of roughly $1bn per 1Km, but still only guesswork at this stage. The foregoing valuations are only my opinion and may be well wide of the mark with the conjecture / speculation. NOTES ON SPECULATION AND INVESTMENT etc The potential of the Megalit is based on guesswork, yes it is a big guess, but how wide of the mark is the guess? Originally I thought this was pretty ambitious however listening to Kiran Morzaria's presentation at the Investor Show where he talks about the consistency across the parallel structures, he said they could be looking at a 10mt resource, he then followed this up indicating it could possibly be the largest lithium find in the world, so it must be significant. Re the recent LV and JV#1 upgrade to 3.283 mt, if this was over 10km and we have 160km structure, in other words a 16 fold increase, this would be up beside the top Bolivia mines which have a LC resource of about 47mt. So perhaps the 16 fold increase in the LCE resource is not actually that far off the mark. Food for thought and no wonder REM’s DL said he had been waiting 30 years for this and they keep saying it is going to be big. Anyway there is no question that the value of the Sonora concessions are worth significantly more than the current resource value and perhaps it will not be long before a big name / miner snaps up a fantastic and profitable resource at a very cheap price. Hope not just yet. Most probably if it happens, it will happen before REM / BCN completely define the size and value of the large Megalit concession; otherwise the miner / buyer will have to pay us a heck lot more. In the meantime on with progress and further exploration. The only problem I envisage with the exploration is the timescales involved in drilling to prove the extent of the resource. Of course there is nothing to stop them increasing the number of drill rigs deployed. Also once the requisite studies have been undertaken they may decide to commence mining as early as they can, if that was the chosen path, so they can commence production whilst continuing to delineate the concessions. Logically, it is most probable that a contract will be signed with a big name and with an upfront payment that will permit production to commence simultaneously with the huge Megalit exploration continuing for a number of years to come. In due course the on going mapping, trenching and sampling may reveal other lithium bearing finds. They can obviously select their business strategy to maximize the returns on the path they pursue. Regarding pre production, BCN have already commenced engineering design work to scope and design a lithium carbonate plant with the capacity for 35,000 tonnes to 50,000 tones per year of lithium carbonate. Retaining the 12.19% interest in BCN, or increasing this, along with the 2.2% share in WLC will certainly provide useful returns in the future and these are currently worth about $9.17m and $1.26m, a total of $10.43m, handy if REM need the cash. Again repeating myself, the foregoing is purely speculation on the future resource value and is an attempt at valuating what the concessions are potentially worth at this point in time until it is drilled. This is a biggie but the question is how big? If it is not wide of the mark and we can assess with some degree of accuracy all associated future costs involved and we proceeded to mine it, what would the BCN and REM share prices actually be worth in the market place in the future? Section 3 takes a stab at estimating the share price from the NAV / NPV. Needless to say the foregoing highlights the massive potential of BCN as an investment opportunity and it is not surprising that REM have increased their interest in BCN. It is understandable though that REM have sensibly chosen to buy shares whilst they are cheap, now they have exercised the ‘Earn In' option to increase to 30% of JV#2 the likelihood is that this will be REM’s last option to purchase a cheap interest in BCN. It is also interesting to note that whilst the REM and BCN are on the up the WLC share price remained pretty flat until Tesla announced their interest. So why are REM buying an interest in BCN? to get the increased revenue benefit once producing? to achieve a leverage strategy and go for a merger or takeover? to get a seat on the BCN board? to attain an eventual controlling interest in the JV's or even BCN.? REM and BCN must have a strategy in place, but then we are not party to the undisclosed information and negotiations which must have been taken place now they have battery grade samples that can be assessed / tested by potential customers. So given that the current resource value has the potential to increase by a significant multiple and we have a huge and potentially valuable project, the question is; does the partnership mine or not. It’s looking like a yes vote to me unless one or other, or both companies receive a massive offer and REM must surely be thinking about staying invested and opting for the 49.9% interest in the concessions and if they do they may be in for the long term then. We should know by 30 September. Funding is currently available however any thoughts of raising funding through placing etc should not be seen as negative, but a necessity, in order to continue the exploration, assuming that it is warranted. BCN have now raised £4.75 million or (£4.038m) after commission expenses and REM have arranged a $10 million facility through YAGM without any real strings attached. The clear message here is that they apparently arranged funding with relative ease, whereas other exploration companies have not found this route to finance as pain free. The fact that finance can be obtained from independent financiers should prove invaluable when negotiating any pre production contracts and financial packages with potential customers. The funding should be forthcoming given the size and the potential of the resources and additionally the load will be shared 70/30 between BCN and REM. With a contract and money upfront we could bring LV and JV#1 to production, prove up part of the Megalit site and then sell parts off and realise the investment value early. Only one of a number of options open to the partnership. UPDATE –The update on the 4 holes drilled south of El Sauz indicates they are at the edge of the Lithium bearing basin as does the single hole to the east of La Ventana. They now propose a more extensive drilling program on Sonora to provide detailed open pit design information and also to expand the lithium resources into the Megalit. So it looks like the next round of drilling will be very interesting on the Megalit. The Buenavista surface sampling has returned Lithium values up to at 1700ppm in the clay sediments and this is essentially over an area 6km by 1.25km and it is part of the Megalit concession. Putting things into perspective, remember we currently have a resource of 3.283 million tones and without any more exploration this is enough LCE to supply 50,000 tonnes / year to three Tesla type or other factories for 20 years and we currently have a cheaper processing procedure which is a distinct advantage in negotiations. An estimate of the share price for the current resource on LV and JV#1 and also for the potential guesstimated resource on the Megalit is considered below. Just think of the current worth obtained from the drilling results and consider the potential worth we may have in the future given the size of the concessions and the potential value once it is drilled. Yes it is in the future as JV#2 is a huge site which will take a fair amount of time and money to define. Remember there are other projects to also consider for REM and BCN which will further enhance their value. Still trying to appreciate how large these concessions are, no wonder I never sleep. Food for thought and a little patience. Continuation of post 3. ESTIMATE OF NET PRESENT VALUE (NPV) AND SHARE PRICE. The Net Present Value (NPV) and Enterprise Value (which looks at the market cap, the debt and liabilities and cash) are economic measures reflecting the market value of a whole business. Price to earnings ratios P/E are appropriate for many companies, but as mining companies have shorter lives another way to look at the valuation is to examine the NPV. I'm no expert at this but the NPV tries to take into account all of the money flows in and out over a period, say the mine life, and work back to see what the present day value is. If this is worked out and a negative figure is achieved for the NPV, then the project is not worth doing. So let's look at the Net Present Value (NPV) which attempts to value all of the projects future earnings by discounting it back to present day value. Regarding the concept of present value, what would you rather have £100 now or £100 in a years time; of course you would rather have it now as it will be worth £110 in a years time at an interest rate of 10% say. So the discount rate takes account of the value of the potential investment opportunity. A project study works out what the future project value is, now, at the present day value and discounts the figures over a period, the mine life, to allow for the potential investment which would give a return at a realistic % interest rate over the period. This discount rate includes an allowance for the degree of risk associated with the project and the discount is often set at 5% interest + 3% for risk, i.e. 8%. For the La Ventana concession BCN’ issued PEA based their NPV calculations on a LCE resource value of $6000 / t and $1958 /t operating costs over 20 years and at 35K tonnes per year (a 700k tonnes resource) and they calculated a NPV of $848m at a discount rate of 8%. The NPV was calculated for other discount rates also. They also considered a capital cost of $114million for plant, royalties of 3% and 34% tax and these are considered in the NPV estimates given below. (It is unclear if the Mexican government charges a 7.5% royalty, but BCN makes reference to this possibility and also to a 3% royalty to both CO-E and a Rio Tinto Co., and in future this would need to be incorporated in any evaluation). The indicated resource for La Ventana was 930K tonne and as at June it has increased to 1.273 mt. So with the calc based on 700Kt, a fairly large portion of the resource is unaccounted for in terms of value. If the indicated resource is accurate there is 573k tonnes remaining which is effectively another mine with 16 years at 35Kt/year. BCN are already looking at a scoping study for plant to produce a capacity between 35k to 50k tonnes per year. Uncertain of whether there is a limit to the capacity of the plant or what is practical or possible in this situation. I did some initial calculations to compare with the BCN figures. Basing the calculations on the BCN information, for La Ventana, at a discount rate of 8%, I estimated a NPV = $761 million (using what I thought they should be using for the royalty and tax figures) and with the figures they appeared to have used for the NPV, it gave a NPV of $801 million, which is still less than their £848 million value. So maybe these are conservative values for all of the NPVs estimated and referred to below. SHARE PRICE ESTIMATE BASED ON THE NPV CALCULATED BY BCN, AND BASED ON NPV ESTIMATES FOR LV, JV#1 & JV’#2. I don't think I have seen any attempts to value the project in terms of a share price estimate. I have worked out the resource value per share previously but not the share price. Anyway this is my effort as I see it and it is the end result of working out a fair number of NPV for different resource scenarios. Re the Net Asset Value (NAV) and NPV see comments at end of the section. (Essentially this assumes that the working capital, investments, and liabilities etc are small, and so the NPV is equivalent to the NAV which is used to estimate the share price). a) La Ventana - Based on BCN's calculated NPV value of $848 million for 35Kt over 20 years, gives: REM share price of 1.128p (allowing for REM's 12.19% interest in BCN) BCN share price (100% of LV) is £6.45 assuming 78,174,752 new shares. b) La Ventana - A calculation on the NPV for 36 years at 35Kt / year for a 1.26mt resource, discounted at 8%, gave a NPV = $930.3 million and results in: REM share price of 1.237p, (allowing for REM's 12.19% interest). BCN share price (100% of LV) is £7.08 assuming the new shares (78,174,752). . c) La Ventana - Using different figures on LV for a resource of 1.25mt, over 25 years at 50Kt / year, this yields an NPV = $1,264 million and gives: REM share price of 1.681p. (use for Final total as the calc. is based on top end of plant capacity of 50Kt / year). BCN share price (100% of LV) is £9.621 assuming the new shares. So if the REM share price reaches 1.68p this reflects only the La Ventana resources, or REM's share of it. Similarly for BCN if it reaches a share price of £9.62 this is only what LV is worth. d) JV#1 - With an updated resource of 2.01mt, and for a mine life of 40 years at 50Kt / year, (resource of 2mt), the calculated NPV = $1,404 million and is equivalent to: REM share price of 5.904p, including 12.19% interest in BCN. BCN share price is £7.48 assuming the new shares. So from above, based on the La Ventana (c) and JV#1 (d), both 'indicated' resources then: REM projected share price = 1.681 + 5.904 = 7.585p. BCN projected share price = £9.62 + £7.48 = £17.10 To sum these up the Share Price estimate is based on the current resource value of LV and JV#1 only and may apply in the future once the resource is fully proven and declared through the appropriate studies. But the more speculative share price for JV#2 which is based on a guesstimate is now estimated below. So not bad with still the "the biggie" to evaluate, JV#2 made up of the Megalit, Buena Vista and San Gabriel concessions. This is approx. a quarter of a million acres and has 4 trending sequences extending for a length of 40km (a strike length extending for 160Km). e) JV#2 - The drilling on the Megalit concessions has commenced and further drilling is planned. It is assumed that the 4 trending sequences are consistent and contiguous in line with what has been drilled, and they have similar Lithium concentrations, as indicated by REM. As these total 160km in length compared to the 10km already drilled on LV and JV#1, this is a 16 fold increase, so assume that the Megalit structures have a resource potential of 16 x 2.41 = 38.56mt.. But it is only guesswork at the moment. (NB drilling has updated to 3.283mt but unsure of the drilled length, so use 2.413mt (0.93 + 1.483). To estimate a NPV I have considered only one of the 4 parallel sequences / structures or in effect a mine that is one quarter of the potential resources and is equivalent to a 9.6mt resource. For a mine life of 48 years with a resource of 200K t / year, at an 8% discount, this produces a NPV = $5,751 million. This assumes, rightly or wrongly, we have processing plant with 4 x the current planned 50K t / year max capability. (This could be treated as 4 plants / mines on the sequence involving the same capital cost for each). Not sure about the practicalities on the mining plant here, other than it gets the ore out of the ground quicker and therefore helps the share price. This NPV, assuming working cap, invests. and liabilities are small, is the NAV and gives: REM a share price of 24.182p and is an estimate for only one quarter of the JV#2 concession. As indicated previously this is obviously guesswork at the resources until actually drilled, albeit we are getting a few hints at the size of the resources involved. BCN share price for one quarter of the JV’2 concession is £30.64. So if we are confident in the future that we do indeed have 4 proven parallel structures we can apply a multiplication factor of 4 to this, if not, then we can apply the appropriate factor depending on the existence of 1, 2 or 3 lithium bearing clay sequences. Therefore the REM share price assuming we have ALL 4 of the trending sequences on JV#2, would be 4 x 24.182p = 96.728p (assuming this multiple approach is reasonable, given the size of the concession). Also for all 4 sequences, the BCN share price would be 4 x £30.64 = £122.56. So summing up the REM share prices for the 3 ventures (LV, JV#1 and JV#2) we have: Total REM future share price estimate = 1.681 + 5.904 + 96.728 = 104.313 pence. For BCN a total future share price estimate = £9.62 + £7.48 + £122.56 = £ 139.66 (So 78,174,852 x £139.66 = £10917.8998 million or £10.92bn m/cap.) This is very speculative and probably a very long way in the future. For interest, if we just multiply the JV#1 estimated shares price for REM (5.904p) and BCN (£7.48) by a factor of 16 we get for the JV#2 resource: A REM share price = 94.46p and BCN share price = £119.68. I am not an expert but assuming that the methodology is ok that is my attempt to estimate the potential resource values of the concessions and valuate the share price potential. Regarding the Megalit, it of course may not be practicable to mine in the manner assumed. Also how appropriate is to try and assign a value based on scant info, but at least the guesswork approach is documented and is by no means set in clay. Everyone needs to do their own research on this, but on the face of it, it is sure to be a real biggie when the resources are fully defined. A point of interest, mining stocks have a certain amount of leverage and the stocks are often valued at 1.5 to 2.5 times their NAV. One factor is the price of the commodity and any potential increase in the LCE price would add leverage to the value of the mining. For example assuming the operating costs stay the same ($2,000), an increase from $6000 to $7,000 / t which is an increase of 16.7% would increase the resource value and corresponding profit margins from $4K / t to $5K / t or by 25%. Therefore in the future a £1 share would be likely to re rate to £1.25 with the ore price increase. Of course any future valuation depends entirely on the strategy that BCN and REN adopt with regards to further exploration now they have access to a substantial amount of funding. Will they have a short, medium or long term viewpoint? DL said it would possibly be sold in 2 years, but will it and will REM remain in the venture until at least they start to mine. Any guesses? Remember and do your own research, as this is only my take on the current value, the potential value and where the share price is potentially going. However remember the price of a resource in the ground will always be a lot less that any prediction or estimation. BACKGROUND NOTES ON THE VALUATION. (Info) It is hard to take a company which is not producing and look at it objectively with a view to assessing if it is currently a good investment for others. It is easier when it is only for your own use, but nevertheless the exploration process still has to be done. In the first instance it is hard to evaluate an exploration company when they are not producing, but by their very nature miners tend to be speculative buys, that is until the ground drilling and later feasibility and bankable studies are undertaken that indicate otherwise. Until this happens the Miners are often valued at levels well below the in ground value as they have no real resource identification. But rather than adopt the attitude that, as they are not producing, they are therefore not worth anything, perhaps it is worthy to at least attempt to assign a value on the share price, even if it is speculative due to the lack of exploration results. It may at least indicate that the company is progressing reasonably well with what has been explored and as the resources are slowly defined, or otherwise, a valuation update can be adjusted or re-estimated according to each set of assay results returned. So if they define across different areas we can add them all up to obtain a current valuation for the project based on their NPVs. So this was all about attempting to attach some sort of potential value to the share price for BCN and REM. In the Current Valuation section the LV and JV#1 exploration are advancing and are at an 'indicated' resource stage with just over 10km drilled. However remember we are not as far advanced in JV#2 and it was only my take on a guesstimate on the resource until it is drilled and defined and only when we achieve ‘measured' and ‘reserve' grade categories are we heading towards real value. The more we define the resources, the more we increase our valuation and potential price /worth to any possible buyers. Note also in the Potential Value section it refers to the resource value per share and not the share price. My effort to value the share price was covered above in this NPV section. Notes / comments on the NPV and NAV with regards to the above estimates: The NAV = aggregated NPVs + Working Capital + Investments + Hedgebook value - Liabilities. For example, assume REM is fully costed for 2014 and that as they have working capital of £5m, there are no liabilities. Also any increase in cash due to draw down from the $10m YAGM facility they have available e.g. $3m, is cancelled by an increase in the corresponding liabilities. Assume BCN investment is included in NPV and estimate REM's 2.2% investment in WL is approx $1.3m (£0.775m). Value of Hedge book is zero. (as unknown). Then NAV = aggregate of NPV + £5.0m + £0.775m + 0 - 0 = NPV's + £5.775m So a valuation of £100m for the NPV will only increase the NAV by 5.77%. Therefore as the working capital and investments are low (as far as I know) compared to the NPV, the share price will only be slightly higher based on the NAV, hence the share price calculations above have been estimated using the NPV only. Continuation of post. 4. ESTIMATE ON THE VALUE OF NEODYMIUM OXIDE RESOURCE AT YANGIBANA AND A ROUGH ESTMATE OF THE VALUATION OF THE TREOs (from a previous exploration) This is based on the RNS issued on 5th August, and calcs. the value of the Yangibana Neodymium oxide resource, however as the total TREO list was not supplied an attempt was made to value the TREOs based on the ppm as listed in the previously explored information on the Hastings’s website. Yangibana - Neodymium value from the 5th August JORC. There are 1.86 mt ‘indicatedR17; TREOs at 1.38% and 1.5 mt ‘inferred̵7; at 1.29% which is equivalent to 45.018 million Kg. For the Neodymium we have: Total in tonnes = 3.36 million tonnes Total in Kg = 3360 million kg Neodymium oxide = 2700 ppm or 0.27% of Nd(2)O(3) Neodymium amount = 9.072 million Kg Price is $68/Kg = $616.896 million USD REM share is 30% = $185.0688 million USD REM share in £ = £110.115936 million GBP Shares (million) = 5453.375717 Resource value/sh = 2.019 pence So in terms of the resource value per share the Neodymium alone is worth 2p. If the rest of the TREOs are priced the same we have about 5 times this resource value, but overall they are possibly less in price. A list of the elements is not given in the recent update; however a check can be made on the previous exploration information on the Hastings website which lists the TREOs and ppm. So just for interest and an attempt to value all of the TREOs, I will use the info as given in Hastings Previous Exploration albeit it is old data. This lists the TREOs and their ppm and has a resource tonnage of 3.5 million tonnes. Based on this table and TREO prices at 14/8/2014 from ‘’ the calculation yields the following resource valuation: Yangibana TREOs are worth a total of $2,258.039 million and REM’s 30% share is worth $677.4117 million or £403.06 million giving a total resource value per share of 7.39 pence. (but based on previous exploration data). So from this, it is not just the Neodymium, (which is used for magnets and electronic components), that will add value to the Yangibana project . Other highlights indicated that the upgraded resource covers only 825 metres of strike length to a maximum 400 metres down-dip to a maximum vertical depth of 100 metres below surface. The resource remains open in all directions with mineralisation cropping out to the east and west. The work is to continue in September with additional reverse circulation and diamond drilling to commence in Q4 on neighbouring targets within the 550 Sq km tenements at Yangibana. Also note that Metallurgical work will commence in the near future to determine the potential to recover the target mineralization within the deposit but preliminary studies suggest there is a potential to produce saleable products. I notice that they have also completed a scoping study to confirm the economics of the project. So on top of the previously calculated resource values for Sonora, we have an additional resource value per share of 7.4 pence for the TREOs. The likelihood is the resources and resource values of both projects will increase with time as exploration advances and the resources are defined. 5. SUMMARY OF CALCULATIONS A. Current Resources for LV and JV#1 i) We have a resource for LV of 1.273mt, after costs worth $5.728bn. ii) We also have a resource for JV#1 of 2.01mt after costs worth $9.045bn. iii) A total resource for LV & JV#1 concessions of 3.283mt, worth $14.773bn. iv) From these REM resource worth is $4.183bn and BCN is worth $12.06bn. v) From this REM has a resource value per share of 45.64p and BCN resource value per share is £91.79. B. Potential resource for JV#2 (the Megalit, Buena Vista and San Gabriel) i) Potential resource is approx 16 times the 2.41mt (LV and JV#1 resource) which is 38.5mt (based on guesswork and in the future). ii) At $6500-$2000 = $ 4500/tonne, this is worth £173.5bn. iii) BCN 70% resource is worth $121.5bn or £72.293bn GBP. iv) REM 30% resource is worth $52bn or £31bn. v) REM resource including 12.19% interest in BCN is worth $66.81bn or £39.73bn. C. Combined current and potential resources i) For LV, JV#1 and JV#2, the resource is 41.8433mt and worth $173.5 + $14.773 = $188.273bn. ii) REM is worth $4.183 + $66.811 = $70.994bn. iii) BCN is worth $12.06bn + $121.5bn = $133.56bn. i.e. almost twice REM and REM have 5453.4 million shares whilst BCN have 78.175 milllion (New) shares. D. Future share price estimate from NPV. (w/cap, invest. and liabilities etc, low cf NPV, so assumes NPV = NAV) i) LV - For REM interest in BCN, using BCN's NPV of $848m, the share price is 1.128p. BCN share price is £6.45. ii) LV - For REM interest in BCN using NPV of $1264m, the share price is 1.681p. BCN share price is £9.62. iii) JV#1 - For REM interest (38.533%) using $1404m, the share price is 5.904p. BCN share price is £7.48. iv) LV and JV#1 for REM the combined share price is 1.681 + 5.904 = 7.585p. BCN combined share price is £9.62 + $7.48 = £ 17.10. v) JV#2 - For REM the share price is 96.728p but guesswork and needs to be drilled fully. BCN share price is £122.56. vi) From the total for the 3 concessions, the REM share price is 1.681 + 5.904 + 96.728 = 104.313 pence. For BCN the combined share price is £9.62 + £7.48 + £122.56 = £139.66. E. Yangibana - Estimate of the Neodymium Oxide and TREO valuation (Previous exploration results) i) Neodymium resource 3.36mt at 2700ppm is worth $616.9m USD and REM’s share is £110m GBP with a resource value of 2.02p per share. ii) TREOs total resources are valued at $2.2258bn and REM’s share is worth £403m GBP with a resource value per share of 7.4p. F. BCN’s Magdalena Borate Resource i) BCN calculated a NPV of $113m USD, which on the same basis as the previous NPV/NAV calcs, would roughly equate to a share price in the region of 86p. Remember the potential resources on the Megalit (JV#2) are based on guesswork and need to be fully defined in the future. Also the current indicated resources for LV and JV#1 require upgrading through the relevant studies to declare an ore reserve. LV has had a PEA. Food for thought and just think we have not considered the mud byproduct from the clay for drilling purposes, or any of the other mineral elements that are in the Sonora ground; not to mention the possible resources at Yangibana and Greenland, all still to come and these too are likely to expand in size. Please DYOR. GLA Gil
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