Axis-shield Share Discussion Threads

[prodman] 07/7/2011 20:33

Slater - Hotfinance,

I think you are both right here as Axis-Shield had only managed a previous high of £4:40 approximate, but in its old Shield Diagnostics days I do believe it managed to reach the dizzy heights of £12+ :-)

ps: With a little help from Jim Slater

[hotfinance14] 07/7/2011 16:05

Slater...do your research first...you fool.

[edgar222] 07/7/2011 15:43

Lol he is right - thought it was £12 actually

[slaterlpj] 07/7/2011 15:41

hotfinance14 - 7 Jul'11 - 09:01 - 3591 of 3593
"Slater..the share price was over £11 a few years ago."

Really? When was that then?

Would you like to alter that HF? Or are you going to admit that you are a fool?

[scobiebreasley] 07/7/2011 10:17

Scotsman




Julie Simmonds, an analyst at Collins Stewart, said the proposal under-valued Axis-Shield compared with recent sales multiples in the sector and suggested a price closer to 550-600p "would seem more appropriate".

[troutisout] 07/7/2011 10:07

I have started a thread to try and compare the AIM/small cap medical equipment manufacturers as a peer group, hopefully to get some sort of handle on how and why the market assigns certain valuations to each Company and what is the peer group average and whether that will rise as M&A activity and a renewed interest in biotech and small pharma shares spills over to the medical equipment side. Please feel free to add any facts you think affect the valuation or any other comparable companies I have missed out.



With the ASD news yesterday and the apparent undervaluation by the market what other Companies are seriously undervalued in this area?

[hotfinance14] 07/7/2011 09:01

Slater..the share price was over £11 a few years ago.

[slaterlpj] 07/7/2011 08:52

trinity - 7 Jul'11 - 07:58 - 3586 of 3589 What a load of rubbish

PHILO124 - 7 Jul'11 - 08:33 - 3587 of 3589 Why?

hotfinance14 - 7 Jul'11 - 08:34 - 3588 of 3589 He thinks 500p is a good price!!

So when was ASD last at 500 then? You dont think that 500 is a good price for the share price to reach? I do, given how lousy it's perfommance has been for over 11 years.

[hotfinance14] 07/7/2011 08:44

The Herald :

£230m takeover approach for Axis rejected City predicts future bid from US rival Alere after rebuff
mark smith deputy business editor

Share 7 Jul 2011

INVESTORS yesterday pumped around £82.5 million into the stock market worth of Axis-Shield after the Scottish-Norwegian medical diagnostics company rebuffed a takeover offer from US rival Alere – but the City's expectation is that it will be back shortly with a higher bid.

Shares in Axis-Shield, which has dual headquarters in Dundee and Oslo, yesterday rocketed 49.25%, or 165p, to 500p on news of the rejected £230m cash takeover approach.

Alere, which has made around 60 acquisitions over the past seven years and is a giant by comparison, made its indicative offer – described by Axis-Shield as "unsolicited and highly preliminary" – on June 7.

Nonetheless, Axis-Shield said in a statement yesterday that its board had unanimously rejected the proposal because it "fundamentally undervalued the company and its future prospects".

One insider close to Alere, a diagnostics and health management company based in Massachusetts, said the indicative offer, which represents a 37% premium to Axis-Shield's share close yesterday, had been intended to bring the matter to the attention of shareholders and to trigger talks between the two companies.

"Alere is keen to work towards a recommended takeover offer for Axis-Shield and would welcome the opportunity to discuss a possible transaction with Axis-Shield in a constructive manner," the US company said in a statement.

The insider added: "They are clearly attracted by Axis-Shield's business and the 37% premium on Wednesday's closing share price and 44 times the company's price/earnings ratio is a handsome price – not withstanding that it's all in cash.

"The outright rejection by the Axis-Shield board has disappointed them, particularly given that it was an indicative offer, which they thought would be a basis for discussion.

"They are now considering their options, but this is not a do or die deal for Alere. This is a company with a $32 billion market cap and more than 11,000 employees in 25 countries."

Alere already has a number of operations in the UK, including a research and development centre in Stirling that employs around 60 people.

Axis-Shield specialises in its fast-growing point-of-care diagnostic NycoCard and Afinion tests for conditions including diabetes, rheumatoid arthritis and vitamin deficiency.

Its Afinion HbA1c kit, for example, helps to monitor the crucial long-term control of blood glucose levels in diabetes patients and takes roughly half the time of rival tests – although in most cases blood samples are sent to laboratories and weeks can pass before the results are returned to the patient.

Axis Shield's HbA1c test takes approximately three minutes.

Earlier this week, the company, which is led by chief executive Ian Gilham, said revenue in the first six months of 2011 grew by about 10%, driven by its point-of-care division which supplies tests for its installed base of about 10,000 Afinion machines in doctors' surgeries.

The company, which was created through the merger of Shield Diagnostics and Norwegian competitor Axis in 1999, has also developed a lipid panel test, due to launch in Europe later this year, to measure cholesterol levels as an indicator of cardiovascular disease.

Its Dundee-based lab business employs around 120 staff, out of some 550 globally.

Meanwhile, a number of analysts regarded the offer by Alere as a shot across the bows, and perhaps just the beginning of the bidding process.

Aanalyst Sebastien Jantet at Investec said Alere was a credible bidder, but he agreed with the Axis-Shield board that the offer undervalued the company, and the prospects for its lipid tests in particular.

"We would urge investors to hold on and believe we may well see another bidder emerge," he said. "With Alere putting Axis into play, other bidders may well emerge, including possibly Siemens, whose DCA platform also competes with Axis, and Abaxis, which has a lipids offering."

He also said a return approach by Alere would need to be at least 530p, and an offer above 600p was possible.

Aviva Investors, which holds nearly 4% of Axis-Shield's shares, backed the board in rejecting Alere's indicative offer.

In 2010, Axis-Shield made £7.5m pre-tax profit on revenue of £102m.

[hotfinance14] 07/7/2011 08:34

He thinks 500p is a good price!!

[trinity] 07/7/2011 07:58

What a load of rubbish

[slaterlpj] 07/7/2011 07:56

zipstuck - 6 Jul'11 - 11:08 - 3557 of 3584 "I do hope M Slater had a short"

Sorry to disappoint you. I didn't. :)

However I have been buying on lows for a while now, --- but not recently as it has been quite firm of late, --- now we know why.

I have been anticipating a gradual rise back to the 400+ region, and would have dumped there (to buy back later) if this bid had not been made.

However, now I am in the same dilemma everybody here is in. 500ish is a good price for ASD given its history since 2000. In a year or two that price is likely to be easily justified, with one proviso. --- That being, that the company is run with a view to driving up the value for shareholders, and not just as some crusade for world health (which is how I have always viewed ASD).

It's often the case the new owners get better value out of a company. Out with the old, and bring in some needed changes, whilst concentrating on the real value within the company. I am certain that Alere would do just that, and transform the value of ASD. You cant blame them for wanting it cheap, and nor the board for. rejecting it. As has been said, this was an opening gambit. More is likely to follow.

I already have a nice tidy profit from ASD, so this is just jam for me. I have no emotional baggage related to holding ASD for so long in the hope of getting my money back (I already have). That said I wouldn't want this sold cheap, and now that a base takeover price has been established, we should see a foundation for the share price regardless of any new bids coming to light.

For that reason, I am prepared to gamble on ASD, by not selling now and looking to buy back later. I am a firm hold, tempted to buy.

I think the next few days/weeks should be very rewarding. I have no idea how much it is worth although I think that 800 is too optimistic at the moment. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see it go out for +-600.

[jpjp100] 06/7/2011 19:53

So, if you were to be a seller, what would the price need to be?

If you take the 44x multiple offered and apply it to the 2012 forecast EPS, that makes 936p

Given that there is many a slip between cup & lip or whatever the phrase is, I'd find it hard to say no to 800p now.

[philo124] 06/7/2011 18:38

AS Above eps +50% this year c15,62p , +36% next year.

[maddox] 06/7/2011 17:50

Hi Phil,

Yes, unfortunately if ASD gets taken out for a derisory 460p or still derisory 530p we'll never know whether our projection are correct. I'd much prefer it to keep my money on the table and stay in for a few more rounds.

Regards, Maddox

[hotfinance14] 06/7/2011 17:47

Phil...what does the forecast show ?

[philo124] 06/7/2011 17:11

Well done ALL. I am shamed to admit that i have never heard of ASD until now, though hold ODX and IDH. I have looked at your earnings growth forcasts- WOW!
460p is Derisory.

[jpjp100] 06/7/2011 17:10

well, I can cofirm that my portfolio has had worse days than today

Siemens is certainly a potential bidder

It would be a big stretch for Abaxis

Danaher is going to be busy digesting the Beckman Coulter acquisition but would surely be interested in ASD

[hotfinance14] 06/7/2011 17:04

I would expect a further higher bid of 530p.

[zho] 06/7/2011 16:59

Diagnostics group Axis-Shield has jumped nearly 50% after it rejected a £230m bid from US rival Alere, opening up the prospect of an auction for the company.

The US group has offered 460p a share in cash and said it hoped it could work to a recommended deal. But Axis - created in 1999 through the merger of Shield Diagnostics and Norway's Axis - said the offer undervalued the company and its future prospects.

Axis shares jumped 164p to 499p as investors bet on a higher offer or rival bidder. Analyst Sebastien Jantet at Investec said:

Today's announcement from Alere effectively puts Axis in play and, whilst a 460p approach may look attractive given the current price and Axis' track record, we think it undervalues the company. We would urge investors to hold on and believe we may well see another bidder emerge. We up our price target to 530p, being our previous 410p target plus a 30% premium for control, and remain buyers.

He suggested Siemens, Abaxis, and possibly Danaher as potential rival bidders.

[maddox] 06/7/2011 15:39

HF,

I think that the price would be well above what Alere wish to pay. Its in the hands of the market and the Board need to make a compelling case for retaining independence - not too difficult with this low-ball bid. Afinion has made a fantastic debut - but that's all it is the start of a prolonged growth trajectory. That's worth a lot more than £5 or £6 now.

>> Hi Count, good to hear from you.

Regards, Maddox

[jpjp100] 06/7/2011 15:38

can it hold 500p at the close? that would be nice

[hotfinance14] 06/7/2011 14:56

Buys coming in now from USA markets.