Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[kojak78] 27/2/2006 09:49

Back to AVM, what do you think about the new Dynasty Gold Deal? AngloAshanti buying in, 60 cents. AVM could be out of the race. Would be a very profitable 2nd place though..

[phillis] 27/2/2006 09:36

oh and arrange the financing which has caused the project to be put back a year...

[surfer2] 26/2/2006 22:08

if you like silver then you should look at Minco
all they need to do is lift it out of a lake

[kojak78] 24/2/2006 21:46

One caveat though, Glamis made an offer for Western Silver or something, I think many investors stood at the sidelines waiting for MFN to consolidate and realized now that MFN is a takeover target and time could be running out. So if you have money in MFN and you need cash in the short term take some of your profits. I don't need cash and will wait for my initial price target, 200% relative to Gammon Lake.

[reefseeker] 24/2/2006 21:06

kojak - thanks for the tip on Minefinders, up about 20% today. My other US share is SLW, up 7% today - why can't everyday be like this ...... !

Agree that SLW looks expensive on the fundies but I am a fan of Ian Telfer, he does pull off some cracking deals and yesterday's SLW announcement was out of left field - gives SLW 15m oz of silver pa with prospects of rising to 20m. New silver stream in at a cost of about $7, SLW more than ever is a leveraged play on pos ...... who needs a silver ETF!

[kojak78] 24/2/2006 16:17

40 mio shares x $7.80/share - $50 mio cash + $100 mio debt = $362 mio
recovered production from reserves: 1.44 mio gold + 53 mio silver = 2.35 mio gold equivalent at $230 cash costs
$154/oz

AVM cash and hedge debt offsetting each other:
110 mio shares f.d. * GBP 1.35 * $1.75/GBP = $260 mio
recovered production from reserves: 1.8 mio
$144/oz at cash costs of $250 over remaining mine life
including minority interests and positive Taror/Chore feasibility:
$74/reserve oz

I own several thousand Minefinders shares. Now that prices have changed so that AVM is again the more undervalued stock (excluding Taror/Chore) I'll buy more AVM. Or perhaps Semafo.

[kojak78] 24/2/2006 15:19

Hm, since mid January Minefinders is up 15%.. more expensive than AVM, down 7%. This is ridiculous, 160-165p and not 133-137p should be the trading range.

I was never very good in predicting prices. Sooner or later price will reach the intrinsic worth of every stock and knowing Minefinders is a $18 stock and AVM a 500p stock is a very comforting idea.

Overvaluation is a different story. Compared to Silver Wheaton Minefinders is a $140 stock with a $2000 price target just to give you an idea at what elevated valuation levels such ridiculous silver stocks are trading and what twisted ideas the silver bugs have. Of course, they will be right. Silver will outperform gold, but they won't make a profit because of those overvalued silver stocks.

[kojak78] 23/2/2006 08:33

I think AVM has not bottomed yet. The low in absolute terms may be in, but the fall into the 35-39 day ski index has not happened. The price target is -5% to 0% until early March rising quickly from early/mid March. AVM may go down to 130p again in the very short term.

[kojak78] 22/2/2006 14:24

A risk increasing merger in soon to be communist Brazil. (although I like Brazil gun laws and Taurus..)

To be honest Yamana seems to have good management. And they had their share of luck, too. All Yamana assets are ex CVRD assets. Avocet has more skilled management. Penjom, a AVM grassroots exploration success. Carbonaceous ore, problem solved by current management. North Lanut, Newmont explored but Peter Flindell is now with AVM. I think in the longer run AVM will be more rewarding than Yamana not considering the valuation differences between both companies.

The important thing with Desert Sun an undervalued mining story (at least in the last year) is finished. More investment money for other stories.

[pecker1] 22/2/2006 11:11

kojak,

Yamana and Desert Sun is a classic 2+2= 5 merger and will make the new company far more attractive to institutional players. The other differences are Brazil and highly competent management who sensibly promote to maximise shareholder returns in a gold bull market.

[kojak78] 22/2/2006 10:59

Yamana takes over Desert Sun, at ca. US$4.70, Avocet has 50% more production and less shares fully diluted, cash costs are lower, too. Takeover price US$320/oz. Avocet has 3.5 mio oz reserves with minority interests taken into account and assuming positive Taror/Chore feasibility. Translates into 580p per share.

Assuming negative taror/Chore feasibility AVM has 1.8 mio oz in reserves with no minority interests applying because all of the cash flow goes to AVM until all investments are paid back. Still 300p.

And we thought 140p was high.

[zaky] 21/2/2006 14:35

indeed - rather like a game of bat and ball

[trader horne] 21/2/2006 14:25

uptrend pullback uptrend pullback uptrend
.......\......../.......\......../
.......sell.....buy.....sell.....buy

Boring isn't it?

[saucepan] 20/2/2006 11:29

Back into AVM. Should possibly not have exited, but wanted to see where bottom formed on latest retracement. Looking good for a breakout now.

[yikyak] 20/2/2006 10:54

Video, takes about 30 minutes, Senetor Ron Paul. Very interesting.

[kickstart] 20/2/2006 01:28

Agree Kojak they are just a bunch of grossly overpaid idiots just like footballers, the only difference being they are supposed to have brains !

[stevie blunder] 18/2/2006 12:10

From the Times today:

Avocet Mining improved 10½p to 136p as Arbuthnot Securities emerged with a debut 170p



Steve

[holdontight] 18/2/2006 11:38

i dont recall anyone giving reasons for this to head south, just reasons for it not to head north as quick as an unhedged producer with greater proven.

AVM remains undervalued.

[bestbuddy] 18/2/2006 09:52

I always find it useful to have a clear target price on a share based on sound fundamantals. Any weakness in the share price not justified by a change in those underlying facts is simply a fantastic buying opportunity. .

[lordgnome] 17/2/2006 20:35

Moron alert:
Just when the chart looked as thuogh this was falling over a cliff, it turns tail and shoots north again. Who'd be a chartist? I'll wait for a breakout before I re-open.
And don't give me any fundanmentalist nonsense - when this was falling there were enough posters on this board eager to give good reason why it was heading south.

[brad1] 17/2/2006 14:28

what a lovely day!

[mjcrockett] 17/2/2006 14:26

Up 10 so far today. Any other share did this and you'd have hundreds of morons posting on the BB.

MJ

[brad1] 17/2/2006 10:12

lets hope that the 125p mark is the new support level to help attack the recent high of about 145p. Any further upward movement and another topup is on the cards. We are still awaiting news from various projects and any decent upgrade or exploration news will send this flying imo. Has anyone contacted AVM to find out why they took out the recent option calls (if they supply that info to investors) - there could be a joint announcement in the near future, cause I cannot see any reason to do what they have done unless they had some firm plans as to the future direction of the company. Looking forward to the next few months with anticipation.