Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[kojak78] 04/4/2006 10:49

Comparisons with POG are very dangerous. POG has $1.85 bn market cap with less production than AVM.

[wobblechops] 04/4/2006 10:44

Avm starting to remind me of POG (peter hambro mining) trading, just goes up all the time. no plug for pog intended, I would like to see avm do the same, any reasons why it should'nt?

[kojak78] 04/4/2006 06:24

Let's face reality.

The situation:
1. AVM up 7 days
2. Gold at new high
3. HUI at possible double top, intraday reversal yesterday
4. some gold stocks are oversold and in danger of a breakdown (Minefinders)

The probability that we will get an 8th up-day are very slim, 9th up-day nearly impossible. But we could as well go up 30% on the 8th up-day and still be undervalued 100% vs. Yamana/DEZ without Taror, Chore, Bakan, Idenburg. History of the stock market suggests that such an outcome is improbable but far more probable (2x to 3x) than one might think. One missed good up-day could ruin your performance for this bull-market. But in the end if you need cash sell some AVM now instead of later. In a "normal" market AVM would have gone up 4 days in a row max. suggesting a low of 162 if we go back to that point.

The HUI looks like it made a double top with intraday reversal yesterday. There was no topping run-pattern though. A decline means gold and gold shares will probably decline into May. Seasonal timing means that is probable, gold breakout to new highs suggests gold staying above 575 meaning the HUI has more room to the upside for completing a topping run-pattern before a small correction. In either case 10 to 15% max.

Some stocks like Minefinders are now very oversold, but remember, the breakdown comes during oversold situations in every case. If support holds some stocks could go up 15 or 20% in a few days.

I feel this is one of the most important days for the year - once again. Perhaps the gold market will meander to the upside in constant fear of either Scylla or Charybdis..

[mr ashley james] 03/4/2006 19:45

Well done everybody I always reckoned AVM would get to at least 200p a share.

Cheers

Ash:)

[ohojim] 03/4/2006 18:16

Ok, I've unfiltered myself. Yep Cinoib, an extraordinary win/win situation really, no matter what I bank, the rest seems to catch up and my holding is worth the same.

But sell on strength and buy on weakness still prevails. At some point we will look back at this vertiginous chart and wonder. But not selling any more. I'm so used to AVM doing the opposite of what I expect. eg I expect £2.00 to be resistance given what happened at £1 but I have got this so wrong this year that I will probably be pleasantly surprised as it sails ever upward, and if it does'nt I will buy some more.

As an aside, the shares I sold I put into Mercator and that seems to be on the up as well but with a much more balanced chart.

Anyway good luck and well done with GFM

[cinoib] 03/4/2006 17:51

Ohojim,
well I did the same, took some out at 184, 10% in one day is o.k. in my book. Very surprised to see it still rising, must pause for breath at some point. Bought some last week for the old portfollio and up 25% already, like to see a bank match that.Gfm up 40%in 6 weeks as well, very happy man at the mo.

[cinoib] 03/4/2006 17:51

Ohojim,
whupss double clicked.

[Abuse team] 03/4/2006 16:19

Post removed by ADVFN

[kojak78] 03/4/2006 16:19

yikyak, great way to play the markets.

IMO one thing could surprise the gold market.. what if all the well covered juniors/intermediates (Goldcorp, Meridian, Glamis, Yamana, Gammon) are too expensive?? What if all the gold bugs are in such stocks and the mainstream decides to buy gold stocks like Newmont? Newmont still has the Franco-Nevada assets, royalties etc. They are worth at least 3bn. Considering that Newmont does cost jusr $177/reserve oz, and now that the A$ is weaker against gold those operations could make a big difference, too. What if McEwen is right about Cortez and one just has to drill deeper to uncover millions of ozs? What if that is true for Australia where exploration focused on shallow deposits, too? Newmont has very very good assets and I think many gold stocks are just too expensive right now (while I could imagine some stocks like AVM to cost 3x the current price).

[chipperfrd] 03/4/2006 12:07

I don't remember seeing this AVM research note being posted before - opologies if it has!



Mirabaud Securities, 20th March.

[yikyak] 03/4/2006 11:42

Should take out £340 cash gold today, wahooooo.

[bionicdog] 03/4/2006 08:21

Blinkin' flip!

[trader horne] 31/3/2006 12:09

yikyak,
don't you think it's high time to clear out of US stocks?

[holdontightuk] 31/3/2006 11:55

Kick......EKA presentation as at Sept 05. Since then they have obtained 100% ownership of the Chel cu and gold deposit. Moly prod due to commence April 06.....looks like a trebler to me on this news alone. If you take a look at the overall resource this company has, of moly, copper and gold - it is massive! 3 years or so down the line, I can see this as a £billion mkt cap company. There is more info on the EKA thread.



DYOR etc

[ben gunn] 31/3/2006 11:45

Kojak

I almost agree with you about Dow theory but I would express it differently.

Charles Dow was looking for confidence that we are in a rising market so going long makes sense (given long term GDP and profits growth).
That is not the same as knowing that it will rise further or that it will rise a particular percentage further or, as you confirm above, that shares have any particular intrinsic value. As I see it Charles Dow realised that the idiots who are in charge of the asylum tomorrow are the same idiots that are in charge of the asylum today so if they are bullish you need to know that in order to re-balance your own strategy for making money out of traded second hand stocks.

AVC remains an odd one. I hope to get back in on weakness.

[ohojim] 31/3/2006 09:18

.......but seriously, good posts holdon and yik and kojak etc. This is a great thread with sound if sometimes conflicting views, keep it up. I do miss biswel tho;-)

Think I'll just filter meself so I can't see what I'm writing, bound to be an improvement.

ohojim>>>>>>>>>>>>filtered ha!

[jeddah jo] 31/3/2006 09:13

Just for some background info on M3 and just what changes the Fed have made recently, I found these two articles really interesting.

[kojak78] 31/3/2006 08:49

I had planned to sell 22000 shares today but I won't do so. I mean all the time we argued how undervalued AVM was and so on and how it should cost as much as Desert Sun but in pence and not US-cent. Now is the time to have the guts and sit through the inevitable pullback that will come along somewhere. No doubt, I will regret not having sold today at some point, but I'm sure AVM will go higher at least within a 3 to 4 month timeframe.

Peter Bernstein wrote in his book "Against the Gods" that stock market price movements indeed follow a normal distribution. But not a perfect normal distribution, it has more than normal price movements of extraordinary magnitude towards the outer limits of that normal distribution. That means nothing more than, yes, stock price movements are random most of the time. But movements of say 30% in a single day occur much more often than expected and if you trade the markets you will miss those "irregular" movements that are in fact more the norm. The only thing you can do is buy and hold. If your stock is undervalued it will go up over time. If it is overvalued don't try to trade, just don't buy it in the first place. Now (=the next couple of years) is the time to be invested in gold and gold stocks and to hold them. It is wise to be out of the stock market, not long and not short as valuations can be corrected through inflation not price movements to the downside. i think proof of thatg is Richard Russell who is bearish on stocks while Dow Theory is quite bullish because he thinks Dow Theory is about valuations, too. The bullishness of Dow Theory tells us nothing more than the prices of stocks are expected to increase not the intrinsic real worth of stocks.

I guess we're in the type of market action I described earlier in the year, that there would be a correction and I would buy in that correction even if prices were higher than then (110 to 120 I think). Now it has become too difficult for timing, a slight error could result in missing 10 or 15% in a single day. We're overbought here, no doubt, but we could hit 210 as well before correcting. We could as well correct right now back to 150, nobody knows.

I still think AVM is worth above 500p a share, now with Bakan and Jilau news perhaps even without Taror/Chore feasibility. The gains on my holdings are now tax-free and perhaps AVM will pay a dividend so I'll just wait.

[hectorp] 31/3/2006 07:59

Cheap placing today at CEY - well worth a look. O/T.

[yikyak] 30/3/2006 22:05

Holdon, I agree and perhaps even higher. The reason I say that is because I have felt for a long time that certain entities whilst going long North American pm stocks they on the flip side been short UK pm stocks. Remember the days where the HUI was raging away and the likes of Avocet did absolutely nothing or even dropped regardless of sterling gold movements. Today was an exception which makes me believe it possible for the likes of Avocet to rise by a very unexpected amount in a single trading session, if, and that's a big 'if' they have decided to allow it to run or feel they should reverse short/go long. If this was the case then we could see a single session rise of, for example, 30% just like the good old days when we were around the 25p mark. This is obviously complete speculation on my behalf but Avocet stockholders have been treated in such a Pavlovian manner it might come as a bit of a shock as over the last year or two we have been happy with an odd couple of percent rise when cash gold has just gone up another US$20, we have grown use to it, ring ring, woof woof. As a bit of further evidence my UK stocks far out performed my North American, I can't remember that EVER happening before!

Should be interesting to see how the ASX performs overnight.

tom4mac, try telling the central bankers that.