Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[bionicdog] 28/3/2006 08:28

Well I for one am delighted to see 160p.

[chipperfrd] 28/3/2006 00:30

Cleo - thank you, much appreciated.

[holdontightuk] 27/3/2006 23:33

Cleo.....how sweet you are! lol!!

[Abuse team] 27/3/2006 21:47

Post removed by ADVFN

[cleo1601] 27/3/2006 21:45

thanks chip for your wise words. I've taken the liberty of copying your miners to investigate (for Super). I think you are a kind and generous person - a real breath of fresh air in fact. All the best

[holdontightuk] 27/3/2006 21:17

I also nhold ACU......but beware of Ashley James.....he doesnt know as much as he thinks he does! He was equally as positive about GOS and NVN, and both effectively went under!

Personally, I would not trust him in the slightest, but he does however offer some interesting inv perspectives and he is not without success.

[kojak78] 27/3/2006 21:11

First of all Botswana has the highest HIV rate afaik.

People tend to think that South Africa / Namibia and Botswana are the most stable countries in Africa. I think the best countries at least for mining are Ghana and Tanzania.

[saucepan] 27/3/2006 18:50

As we are sharing ideas: I too think ACU (highlighted by Chip)looks a tremendous prospect. Resources are proven and growing, and finance is sorted. Botswana is arguably the most politically stable country in Africa. But things could always change politcally, even in Botswana - I see that as the only longterm downside risk of any significance (but it has not detracted me from making ACU a major holding in my investment portfolio).

[hectorp] 27/3/2006 18:40

amazing the rise here.
It shows what OXS will do when problems sorted!
( sadly never held these for a very long time!)

[holdontightuk] 27/3/2006 18:31

interesting Kojak.....hope you dont mind but I've copied to Gold thread.

[kojak78] 27/3/2006 17:08

And don't forget Minefinders, just bought 1000 more at 7.57 a few days ago.

BTW, remember SKI? Jeff Kern told months ago that the black dots would hit the green lines (to keep it simple) and that this would mark an important bottom. The bottom whereon you'll have to make the biggest financial bet in your life.

Well, it's here:


Yesterday I wondered and just couldn't think that we are at some kind of bottom. I mean no bottom run pattern, no new lows etc. Todays rise of the gold stocks shows me that there is something to the SKI system!

210p AVM this year is my new target. Jeff Kern told his subscribers 50 to 70% from the bottom until autumn.

[supersturrock] 27/3/2006 16:19

Thanks guys. Will have a look at these.

[holdontightuk] 27/3/2006 16:11

Or......

Gold :
- MCR.L, Mercator Gold - production expected 2007
- NGG.V, New Guinea Gold - production expected late 2006
- EUM.L, European Minerals - gold and copper, production expected 2007
- EKA.L, Eureka Mining - gold, copper and molybdenum, producing moly from April 06 and copper and gold from 2008
- TMG.L, Thistle Mining - already producing, v low mkt cap (risky)

Others:
- ML.TO, Mercator Minerals (copper)
- YZC.V, Yukon Zinc (zinc and silver)
- ORI.L, Oriel Resources
- PLAA.L, Platinum Australia

[chipperfrd] 27/3/2006 15:58

Super,

I hesitate to actually recommend anything so please DYOR. Some of the following may be worth a look ...

ACU - copper - in development towards production.
GFM - zinc - in production for 9 months in China. Also has gold resource potential.
CEY - gold - Egypt - large resource (4.5Moz) & adding. BFS shortly.
MIO - silver - early stage
MANO - gold & diamonds - W Africa - early stage but has several JV's
MKD - Uzbekistan - huge zinc & silver but waiting for licence - OXS own 85%+

You probably ought to consider some big integrated miners as well. They still have relatively low p/e's even though we are in a resource bull market.

BLT, RIO, AAL, VED, XTA, KAZ, have major exposure to metals (copper & zinc in particular) iron ore, uranium, etc. ANTO as a pure copper play.

If you want platinum then there is AQP & JLP

You could also consider other gold miners that are in production

RRS, YAU, OXS (but be aware of the Kyrg licence issue)

Thats probably enough to start with. Good luck.
Chip

[supersturrock] 27/3/2006 15:07

Must confess I know far less about miners than oils and only hold AVM and ORI.
Now lookng to cut down on property holdings post REIT spike and increase mining exposure. Any ideas would be v. welcome. Prefer rarer metals and youngish cos with production imminent or already building up.
TIA

[chipperfrd] 26/3/2006 19:26

Saucepan - thanks for the comments. It will be interesting to see if there is some tax selling this week. I think your 'ride the bumps' rather sums up my view on many of my holdings.
Chip

[chipperfrd] 26/3/2006 19:21

Cleo - commiserations re VML, it's happened to most of us along the way. I am tending to worry less about missing a bounce with a non-performer as more and more of my regulars keep doing the business for me. I have even changed my pattern of geared trading in order to run my winners and avoid the downspikes which regularly clear out the stops of the unwary.

I am with you in TLW, DGO, HNR and here of course.

Well done with NOP (I last held at 10p or something!) I can't believe where it is now.

All the best
Chip

[cleo1601] 26/3/2006 17:38

agreed Saucepan re AVM. I've "ducked in and out" a couple of times and it's always ended up either barely breakeven or costing me, so I think I've learned my lesson here. Not just here in fact. Trouble is I tend to apply the buy and hold to the wrong ones (e.g. VML and RPT!!) in a desperate bid to recoup paper losses, so what you've written has highlighted to me that I trade "sound" shares when I shouldn't and keep the dogs. Perhaps I'll try a building society...

[saucepan] 26/3/2006 17:31

Great post, Chip: a fascinating Sunday read. You have expressed, very cogently, thoughts on matters I had half formed myself. So, in summary, I tend to concur.

Ohojim's chart above, highlighted seasonal weakness - but, yes, there are some signs that this year's pattern may not be a perfect repeat. The lack of the March capital gains/profit takers sell off has not materialised yet, as you point out.

It is always very difficult to judge when to duck in and out. I have only done it once myself, a few weeks ago, and it was hardly worth the while. As AVM is a share to feel very comfortable with, perhaps one can do far worse than just tuck away and ride the bumps.

[0haram] 26/3/2006 17:27

Now THIS I liked!

[chipperfrd] 26/3/2006 16:39

Hi Cleo,

I was just reading the RUG thread as it happens. I don't post much on there these days as I am not really 'into' trading physical on a day-to-day basis. But it is a really informative thread with a good range of opinion so I enjoy lurking.

Hope all your investments are going well (I ditched VML by the way. Tax loss to set against CGT was not to be sneezed at!).

All the best
Chip

[cleo1601] 26/3/2006 16:28

Hi chip
what a miserable start to official spring!
there's always an interesting debate on the price of gold on the really useful gold thread. are you following it? if not, it might be useful (or diverting at least).

Thank you for that above post which helped my own thinking and voiced many of my own questions

[chipperfrd] 26/3/2006 16:09

Just some general musings on a wet Sunday ...

I significantly increased my holdings in AVM last November when Jerooy uncertainties weighed on OXS and I have been well rewarded by AVM with a 50% uplift to date. However, is the 4-month support trendline sustainable at around 13p/month rise? Also, will there be a seasonal fall in gold, gold shares and commodities in general that will mirror the sickening falls from March to June in 2005?

I hesitate to use the term 'it will be different this time' because I know there will be hollow laughter from long-time investors who have seen all this before but .... I believe there has been an overall change in perception with regard to the metals in the last 12 months.

Buying in May/June in 2005 was a smart move as many PI's bailed out at the bottom (as they are wont to do!) and the subsequent unlinking of the dollar/gold relationship around July allowed gold/silver & associated shares to really motor. Since then we have seen a radical change in media coverage of commodities and of gold/silver in particular. It has now ceased to be the preserve of the isolated 'gold bug' and has become much more mainstream to hold investments in precious metals.

Hence, with gold now holding fairly steady at a mid-range of 550 and with silver being boosted by excitement over the new ETF just how much downside should be expected for 'seasonal factors'?

So far 2006 has already showed differences over 2005. We have not experienced sustained sharp falls in March (in fact the opposite!). We had a sharp retracement in February as gold came off it's highs, but this was extremely short-lived and proved an excellent topping up opportunity as did the similar event in mid March. Importantly, the base metals are also very high profile this year with major deficits in supply/demand predicted throughout 2006/7. Sustained demand from China & India appears to be putting a floor under record prices for copper, zinc, etc and I wonder if this factor will also alter the market for gold (and AVM).

As I said at the beginning these are only musings and I do not have definitive answers to my own questions. However, I would really appreciate the views of others if they are so inclined.

As for my own actions going forward ... I do not plan to sell any shares in my core accounts, but I also do not believe that AVM can maintain it's upward momentum at current levels so I will probably look to take advantage of weakness within my trading account.

Although everyone is expecting gold to hit 600 this year (which is probably a good reason for it not to!) I do believe that there is enough uncertainty in the World for it to be a 'must have' in any portfolio at all times (as with oil) so I will continue to maintain healthy holdings through any possible downturn. But that also goes for good exposure to the base metals, oil & gas as well.

Regards to all
Chip