Avisen Share Discussion Threads

[cammy3] 30/3/2011 23:01

4p special dividend would be nice

[cammy3] 30/3/2011 16:11

lets hope they build on the cash pile - WC should be decreasing and with profits heading north, cash pile should increase.

[argy2] 30/3/2011 16:02

Let's hope they spend it wisely. Once it's gone it's gone.

[cammy3] 30/3/2011 15:51

Company gets 7m cash this Friday - thats 50% of currrent mkt cap.

[tsmith2] 25/3/2011 15:35

110/200 mda golden cross formation soon..bullish..

[patricia59] 25/3/2011 12:41

no director buying in this one. but some ssles

[pabloiom] 23/3/2011 14:11

Above link is from a subscription only site, it's alos on UK-Analyst (no sub required)

[protean] 23/3/2011 12:54

Ok, thanks for that.

[someuwin] 23/3/2011 12:52

...put on the t1ps site this morning.

[protean] 23/3/2011 12:49

When was that posted someuwin?

[someuwin] 23/3/2011 12:42

A Mid Month War Special Newsletter from the SF t1ps Smaller Companies Growth Fund

...


"...One of your Fund's favourites, Avisen, announced on 17 March 2011 a binding sale and purchase agreement relating to the proposed disposal of the company's wholly owned subsidiary Inca Software Limited. The agreement, which is set to complete on 1 April 2011, has been settled for a total consideration of £8.65 million, made up of £7.3 million cash (£6 million on completion, and £1.3 million payable 12 months after completion) and the assumption by the buyer, Logicalis, of the net liabilities of Inca (up to a maximum of £1.35 million). The sale represents a solid return on investment for the company.

The management is now set to use the sale proceeds to further the development of the remaining core business division which we believe to be performing strongly. Following the disposal of Inca the company is now focused upon organic growth through its next generation SaaS storage analytics solution whilst being in a materially strengthened, flexible position to pursue additional opportunities through complimentary 'bolt on' acquisitions.

At 6.25p the company is capitalised at just £13.6 million. We reckon that net cash following the disposal is around the £11 million mark and that if the management so choose, Storage Fusion could be sold for anywhere between £3 and £7 million, let's say £5 million. We however reckon that the division is now running smoothly and should this year contribute roughly £1 million so a sale may not be on the cards. Assuming the above, the obviously undemanding market cap is to more than cover, leaving a strong core, rapidly growing business with good management which we reckon will this year deliver a pre tax profit of around £2 million, rising to £3.2 million next year, thrown in for nothing!

The CEO Marcus Hanke spent a day with us in the Isle of Man this week and are we are convinced that the company, and its respective share price, is still more than unfairly being punished following the previously discussed boardroom fall out in summer 2010 and is quite simply unjustifiable. Needless to say we have been buying any stock that comes available at these levels (having also bought a good chunk at the 3-4p mark). A solid growth company, which Avisen is, should no doubt trade on a multiple of at least 12 (if not more) and we therefore, buying at around 6p, expect to almost triple our investment here."

[the big fella] 22/3/2011 16:46

Agreed but no resistance until 9p, longer term 14p for sure.

[tsmith2] 22/3/2011 16:43

TBF - look at the graph its actually 14p, completion of U formation..

[the big fella] 22/3/2011 16:33

Nice breakout on the chart today. Could be looking at 9 / 10p on this rally.

[the big fella] 22/3/2011 16:33

Nice breakout on the chart today. Could be looking at 9 / 10p on this rally.

[the big fella] 22/3/2011 14:22

I think thye only have to announce once they have breached certain thresholds.

[cammy3] 22/3/2011 14:20

200,000 delayed purchase at 7p just gone through. If T1ps have been buying more then why dont they announce to the market

[tsmith2] 22/3/2011 13:10

Thanks INFO

good buying and good price action to day.

cheap..

[the big fella] 22/3/2011 11:46

Nice move up today.

[topinfo] 22/3/2011 09:43

Taken from Sharecrazy today. Cheers Argy!

ARGY2 - 22 Mar'11 - 09:35 - 76094 of 76102

TOPS not sure if you've seen this by TW about AVI this morning I think:

"In between penning a few words for the statement we had the pleasure of a visit to the Isle of Man by Marcus Hanke of Avisen – one of our largest holdings in the SF t1ps Growth Fund. Larger after yesterday when we bought another line of stock. Those who argue that share prices reflect what is going on/that Warren Buffett could not exist should look at Avisen. At 6p odd it is capitalised at £13 million. Net cash – following the sale of Inca – will be c£11 million by the end of this year. The Storage Fusion Unit – which I had expected to be sold – is now doing so well it probably will not be sold. Its contribution this year will be – I expect – £1 million and that means that I'd expect a profit before tax (after tax as well as Avisen has large tax losses to provide shelter) for this year of at least £2 million. Next year that is at least £3.2 million. Now call me daft if you wish but an ex cash PE of 1 falling to 0.66 for a growth stock is just daft as a brush. A growth stock merits a PE of at least 12 so on that basis you are looking at a market cap of £33 million now rising to £50 million in a year – or a share price of 14.6p rising in a year to 22.1p.

When I tipped this on t1ps eight months ago at 3.625p I said that it was arguably the cheapest stock on AIM. At 6 odd pence the story has got so much stronger that it remains, arguably, the cheapest stock on AIM. It is certainly in the top 3".

[topinfo] 22/3/2011 09:41

Breakout, next stop 9p!!

[topinfo] 21/3/2011 14:52

With link this time!

MONDAY, 21 MARCH 2011 11:41

Avisen will use the proceeds from the sale of Inca to further develop the Group's remaining business divisions.

Avisen plc shares are 5.88% lower at 6p this morning.

The poor start to the week comes as analysts at GE&CR upgrade the stock to a Buy.

Philip Morrish at GC&ER has upgraded their target price from 7.5p to 11.3 after the announcement that Avisen has agreed to sell its wholly owned subsidiary, Inca Software, to Logicalis UK.

Avisen will receive £6.0 million in cash on completion, which is expected on 1st April 2011 followed 12-months later by a further £1.3 million.

Logicalis will also assume the net liabilities of Inca Software as at the date of completion, subject to a maximum of £1.35 million.

Inca Software is the largest UK IBM Cognos partner, providing customers with the full suite of IBM business analytics products and for the six months ended 31 July 2010 reported revenues of £4.318 million and a pre-tax profit £0.254 million respectively.

Inca Software had unaudited net liabilities of £2.5 million as at 31 July 2010.

Avisen will use the proceeds from the sale of Inca to further develop the Group's remaining business divisions, particularly the launch of its next generation SaaS Storage Analytics solution.

Morrish says that the scope of the potential upside in share performance after the divestment is ground enough to upgrade Avisen Plc to a Buy.

[topinfo] 21/3/2011 12:26

21st March 2011


Analyst: Philip Morrish
Email: [e-mail]
Tel: [phone]

Avisen* - Major Divestment Strengthens Balance Sheet; Buy with increased target price of 11.3p (7.5p)

Avisen, the performance management specialists, announced on 17th March that following an unsolicited offer it had agreed to sell its wholly owned subsidiary, Inca Software, to Logicalis UK Limited for a total consideration of £8.65 million.

Inca Software is the largest UK IBM Cognos partner, providing customers with the full suite of IBM business analytics products and for the six months ended 31 July 2010 reported revenues of £4.318 million and a pre-tax profit £0.254 million respectively. Inca Software had unaudited net liabilities of £2.5 million as at 31 July 2010.
Avisen will receive £6.0 million in cash on completion, which is expected on 1st April 2011 followed 12-months later by a further £1.3 million. Logicalis will also assume the net liabilities of Inca Software as at the date of completion, subject to a maximum of £1.35 million.

Avisen will use the proceeds from the sale of Inca to further develop the Group's remaining business divisions, particularly the launch of its next generation SaaS Storage Analytics solution.

Nevertheless, Avisen has not lost its appetite for acquisitions and now has ample resources to seize growth opportunities in the performance improvement sector as these arise, which should accelerate the group's growth potential.

Over the past 18 months, Avisen has undergone considerable restructuring and we estimate, using our earlier indicative forecasts, that the underlying performance for the new group in the current financial year to 31 January 2012 is running at least as in the following table:

Table: Reshaped Avisen, £million

Year ending 31st January 2012

'Old' Avisen


'New' Avisen

Avisen

3.7


3.7

Storage Fusion

1.0


1.0

Inca Software

2.3 1


Revenues

7.0


4.7

Avisen

0.9


0.9

Storage Fusion

0.2


0.2

Inca Software

0.4 1


EBITA

1.5


1.1

Source: Growth Equities & Company Research
Note:
1 Full year pro rata to 3 months

We believe that Avisen has a relatively predictable and steadily growing revenue stream. However, the wild card is Storage Fusion, which finally turned the corner at the interim stage and has been steadily growing although it may well record a small overall loss for the financial year ended 31st January 2011.

Storage Fusion is involved in one of the global IT industry's hot growth spots, i.e., data warehousing and analytics, which undergoing considerable consolidation. Moreover, the business will launch its latest analytics software suite in the next few weeks, which should stimulate stronger revenue growth than our current expectations may be factoring in.

Avisen's shares are trading at 6.375p and based upon estimated and adjusted 2012 forecast this indicates a relatively full forward looking P/E multiple of 13.3. However, P/E multiples do not necessarily indicate the underlying value of a business and we value Avisen on a sum of the parts basis. The cash pile as at 1st April 2011 should be £9.6 million (4.2p per share). Storage Fusion, which is an attractive asset in a currently hot and rapidly consolidating IT segment could be worth anything from £3 million to £7 million and we value it at £5 million (2.2p per share) and assume that it will be sold at some stage. Valuing the remaining core Avisen business which is growing strongly on a 10 times EBITDA multiple it is worth £11 million (4.9p per share) and that gives a sum of the parts valuation of 11.3p per share. We are increasing our target price from 7.5p to 11.3p and with such large upside potential our stance moves to Buy.

Forecast Table

Year to 31 January


Sales
(£000)


Pre-tax Profit
(£000)


Earnings per share (p)


Price Earnings Ratio (x)


Dividend (p)


Yield (%)

2009A 1


2,773


(102)


(4.07)


NA


0.0


0.0

2010A 2


5,906


(2,751)


(2.11)


NA


0.0


0.0

2011E 3


14,000


1,400


0.63 3


10.1


0.0


0.0

2012E 4


7,000


1,600


0.48


13.3


0.0


0.0

Source: Growth Equities & Company Research
Notes:
1 10 months ended 31 January
2 12 months ended 31 January
3 Excludes exceptional items
4 Includes 3 months from Inca Software.

*Avisen is a corporate client of Rivington Street Holdings the ultimate owner of GE&CR. The SF t1ps Smaller Companies Growth Fund, which is managed by an RSH subsidiary, owns shares in Avisen.

.

[cammy3] 20/3/2011 18:35

Seems a great deal but nobody really interested by the look of things -

[cammy3] 20/3/2011 18:32

Growth Company