Avisen Share Discussion Threads

[greengiant] 13/10/2010 11:37

Argy / oregano

I disagree, I think you need to forget the TW bull and look at the numbers on an individual basis

Avisen did £222k in the 2nd Quarter and the management stated the following
"Q2 adjusted EBITA result of £222,000 is more reflective of the underlying run rate of the business than the Q1 result"

If that run rate is maintained for the remainder of the year you will get £444k profit from Avisen alone

Inca did £378k in the 2nd Quarter and management stated the following

"management believe that the Q2 result of £378,000 is more reflective of the underlying run rate of the business than the Q1 result. In addition, the Inca business has historically performed better in the second half of the year, with November and December being Inca's most profitable months."

That would imply at least a £756k 2nd half profit for Inca, add this to the £444k for Avisen and you get £1.2m. Less £500k Central costs and 2nd Half profit should be around £800k. Annualised £1.5m - £1.8m.

It looks good, the question is whether management can deliver and can they stop the losses at storage fusion?

gg

[oregano] 13/10/2010 11:24

Avisen are a client of t1ps. the ramp "worked" once. surely not again.

when all is said and done, even if they make £1m, mkt cap is £10m, 10x EBITDA is not cheap for this kind of company with unproven management, especially if the cashflow is poor. very easy to sell stuff if people are not paying for it. they clearly flag there is risk to the h2 numbers for the core avisen business as well.

[argy2] 13/10/2010 11:11

Expect to see the t1ps ramping machine get to work on this over the next few days.

[redissue] 13/10/2010 10:53

Agreed TW is way out on he analysis

If you look at Net current assets they say minus £2m which is net debt of £2m in my book not net cash of £4m

Even so still looks like a reasonable investment if they are adding lots of contracts and growing

Short term target 7-8p for me.

All IMO, do your own research etc

[argy2] 13/10/2010 10:30

Any comment from TW today. Seems to have got this wrong so far.

[redissue] 13/10/2010 10:29

If they do 750K-£1m in the 2nd half and they get the cash in then this is trading on a PE of about 4-5.

If you add in the fact they might get something for Storage Fusion £2-3m ? then PE is more like 3-4

Looks like a good investment from here

[greengiant] 13/10/2010 08:03

\on the upside, if you believe that the cash will be received then now is the best time to invest.

gg

[tsmith2] 13/10/2010 07:51

On the cash point look at the commentary..

Current assets (including cash)

Trade and other receivables in the year increased from £3,189,000 at 31 January 2010 to £6,505,000 at 31 July 2010. The most significant reason for the increase in receivables is £2,100,000 of deferred consideration receivable which was taken on as part of the Xploite acquisition balance sheet.

Cash in the period increased from £183,000 at 31 January 2010 to £689,000 at 31 July 2010. The most significant reason for the increase is the inflow of cash from the Xploite acquisition of £2,292,000, offset against the cash outflows from operating activities of £1,863,000. The operating cash outflow in the period is due to the operating loss in the period of which the 'one-off' items of £1,453,000 were the main cause of the loss.

So the £2.1mn is due in shortly,
the £1.5mn cost of sorting of the Xploite management leaving is truly an exceptional cost,
annualised cost savings of £1mn to kick in
as will Xploite (since it was only acquired 28.4.2010
EBITA ~ £250k for Q2 and this run is expected to conservatively (ignoring xploite ramp up, savings) be maintained so £1mn.

with the board settled - management can now fully concentrate on getting work won too!

Look like an excellent set of results to me.

[cammy3] 13/10/2010 07:16

Would need to see the full year results before purchasing anymore shares. Outflows of cash are concerning.

[solarno lopez] 12/10/2010 11:58

he has been instrumental in both business's and BRIGHT FUTURES was a very nice cash shell but with a poor strategy....bells ringing yet

I take it you know him personally

[ukinvestor220] 12/10/2010 11:55

dont think so - can you proved any more details

[solarno lopez] 12/10/2010 11:11

Is the problem Marcus Yeoman... along with this one he was also a prime mover behind BRIGHT FUTURES a Plus quoted catering company that has gone badly wrong with two subsidiaries placed into administration.

[tsmith2] 12/10/2010 09:48

good vol - overhang clearing?

graph starting to take shape..

[tsmith2] 12/10/2010 07:58

like the bit at the end..

I firmly believe that the business is now well placed for robust future growth
and I look forward to providing further positive news for the Company's
shareholders in the future."

[cammy3] 12/10/2010 07:14

Thats another 300k out the bank account - when are the interims. Looking forward to large profits as promised by TW

[argy2] 11/10/2010 07:48

Trading and contracts update would be nice.

[cammy3] 10/10/2010 16:05

Last set of results were dreadful - do we know when the interims are due?

[outsizeclothes.com] 09/10/2010 21:12

This is a "show me the money" stock right now. Burned shareholders will only return after a solid set of results.( & some visibility for future earnings potential) Until that happens this is purely a punt, and won't rise above 5p IMHO.
But I'll be a punter at 4p if I see it.

[delboy99] 01/10/2010 09:59

starting to rise to cheap

[standish11] 30/9/2010 16:14

I don't think you should be accusing Tw of lyieng or anyone else for that matter without solid evidence.

[argy2] 30/9/2010 13:08

He certainly seems to have a habit of it. Wonder too why there was never any Director buying after their appalling results if, as according to TW, the current year prospects were so bullish?

[solarno lopez] 30/9/2010 13:05

They usually do, don't they

[argy2] 30/9/2010 12:54

300k sale today and it doesn't look like TW is picking it up. Perhaps he was lying to subscribers about all his alleged buying??