Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[terryebby] 01/3/2018 15:38

.... and yet Intelsat recently tried to acquire OneWeb, which does not even have a single dollar of revenue in a $2bn transaction. so a rather micro analysis of numbers is not relevant. Fixed assets with long lifetimes and spectrum with value are what matters here if we are considering a bid. I am not going to make my money back (or on INM, EUT and SES probably) but I dod think a bid will come above this level

[cryptotrade] 01/3/2018 15:37

Hi terry, I will look back, I was more interested in what you could remember and anything is appreciated. Thanks for the information.

If that happens, a £1 bid may come taking into account future earning. We're talking over the next 12 months or so maybe.

Time will tell.

Put it this way, they have an asset, it costs money. If someone sees long term value, they'll buy them, knowing in the future, they'll get the right yield.

[terryebby] 01/3/2018 15:21

From memory, and I don't have time to look back at the statements so give me a break if i make a mistake .... The debt for equity swap is wooing out two thirds of the debt and done at an effective price of 25p which values the enlarged share capital at @=£250m. The debt that will remain is £350m so the total capitalisation is £500m, or about `$700m.

The spent over $1bn on fixed assets. The spectrum they got for nothing and have turned most of it on so which apparently makes it more valuable. Intelsat and SES are trying to sell some of their satellite bandwidth spectrum in America to mobile phone companies and Inmarsat did the same thing, so the value fo spectrum is only going up

The launch of the bird retires risks and should see value go up, and I hope the $40m contract they hinted in the last statement comes though. If all that happens we mists see the price go to 30p as you say and at that point its still a long way short of Fair Value so we might see a bid

[cryptotrade] 01/3/2018 14:56

hi terry,

thanks for the informative post.

Could you help me please understand the background on the 700m and how it was/is being raised. I believe loan notes were given? is this right and they will be exchanged into shares at some point or paid back by 2023?

How much was given to help the company?

I guess looking at them today, I would be asking, what's their revenue, cash balance, costs and do they have a real business ready to make some money.

What's you're view.

The recent rise is good, but from the super low points, I'd not be surprised to see this rise to 30+p eventually.

Just wondering what news are we expecting about what over the next three months.

[cryptotrade] 01/3/2018 14:15

may get a little pull back before the next rise up.

[terryebby] 01/3/2018 14:07

i guess that means there are not many sellers out there at this price. The key here is that when Hylas 4 launches, it requires all the risk and becomes more valuable than the money that went into it and b)spectrum has a use it or lose it thing so once they starts using the HYLAS 4 spectrum it become more valuable.

Since the Equity + debt capitalisation post swap is gong to be less than $700m, Avanti can be acquired for LESS than the cost oF building the entire in orbit fleet, not even counting spectrum. For some private companies who don't have to worry about the crisis that hit the publicly quoted sector, that could prove too attractive, so watch out for Telesat or Arabsat, and Inmarsat apparently need more capacity for their wifi on planes service but their share price is low and the CEO its rumoured to be getting fired

[cryptotrade] 01/3/2018 10:08

The mm margin is huge. Crooks.

[terryebby] 28/2/2018 15:19

The space market is getting excited about Spectrum being allowed to be sold to mobile phone companies. Avanti has a ton of spectrum covering the Americas to Indonesia. There were rumour a while ago about Viasat wanting to buy the company and this would explain why. Inmarsat was clear interested a couple fo years ago because their broadband on planes thing is chewing up spectrum and they need more

[terryebby] 28/2/2018 15:04

It seems the market is getting excited about Spectrum being allowed to be sold to mobile phone companies. Avanti has a ton of spectrum covering the Americas to Indonesia. There were rumour a while ago about Viasat wanting to buy the company and this would explain why. Inmarsat was clear interested a couple fo years ago because their broadband on planes thing is chewing up spectrum and they need more

[terryebby] 28/2/2018 14:54

This doubled last time there was a launch and my guess is is happens again - is this goes to the 25p that the Debt for equity swap implies in the run up to the launch. That level clearly prices in the value of having one of the biggest big thoughput satellites in the World happily launched. There is a big increase in value when you retire all of the construction, delay and launch risks and start using your valuable and scarce spectrum in anger. Whether it then moves higher is dependent on contracts - and they did refer to one $40 million deal in the last Trading Update which I presume is conditional on launch. Am not selling yet

[top tips] 28/2/2018 10:33

Up we go. doubled my money. Very nice.

[cryptotrade] 28/2/2018 09:27

Sorry, if you mean not until 2023, 5 years away for conversion, that's fine.

[cryptotrade] 28/2/2018 09:26

When are the loans notes to be converted? How much dilution.

[apfindley] 28/2/2018 09:07

All looking good. But with bondholders convening a meeting and a possible 92.5% dilution to shareholders, to convert the 2023 loan notes, it's unfortunate. Still, the company will remain strong. Anyone buying after the loan notes are settled, could be in for good investment, finally.

[bbr391] 28/2/2018 07:37

Nicely swinging to new levels at a good pace , be cautious when it starts to heat up .
Avanti should now be safe from disaster .
But how high and at what cost ?
Let the BOD decide .

Best of Luck All

[terryebby] 26/2/2018 10:33

Avanti is starting to motor. The balance sheet is put right, there is a big deal worth $40 million pending and a launch a few weeks away. The share price doubled to 419p in the week leading up to the launch of HYLAS 2 so it would be reasonable to expect the same this time

[terryebby] 26/2/2018 10:33

Avanti is starting to motor. The balance sheet is put right, there is a big deal worth $40 million pending and a launch a few weeks away. The share price doubled to 419p in the week leading up to the launch of HYLAS 2 so it would be reasonable to expect the same this time

[terryebby] 23/2/2018 16:31

it IS sneaking higher. This will run up now ahead of the launch of HYLAS 4 on March 1st. It a massive variation catalyst if it gets there because it TREBLES their available capacity. of course if the EU rocket blows it up, thats another reason for a very Hard Brexit !

[briangal99] 23/2/2018 13:59

Looks like this is trying to sneak higher

[top tips] 23/2/2018 08:33

Interesting situation again.

[terryebby] 31/1/2018 12:37

This debt for equity swap implies a share price of 25p. If the big contract referred to in the in the VERY lawyer heavy statement of Friday comes off, we are in for some kind of recovery. The SIPP is never getting its money back but it could be worse