Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[garymott] 03/5/2011 11:47

rwilliams57, Yes, quite alot. See my post above for starters where SC's informant has no clue of the revenue. Also the majority of AVN's business model is not residential broadband. Also that he is quoting ISPs' prices to residential cutomers and not AVN's prices to ISPs. Also that you get a UK IP address with AVN so you can get the BBC iPlayer etc etc.

AVN's recent RNSs make clear that everything (e.g. pre-sales volume, pricing, technical performance, lifetime expectancy) is ahead of the business plan so it is obvious that they do not need to compete directly against Eutelsat on the pricing of residential broadband at the expense of margin.

Because SC is short this is all he talks about and ignores all other facts. Shame really to do such an injustice to such a promising and innovative company.

[simon cawkwell] 03/5/2011 11:37

GaryMott,

I am (well, up to a point) sorry that you resent my publishing my informant's views. Time will tell whether he has misjudged matters.

Personally, I think my informant is a very intelligent fellow who is also honest. So my bet is that he is right - namely, that AVN is at a competitive disadvantage. Indeed, it seems to me that the disadvantage is so great that AVN's share price decline has not really begun yet.

I fear that my bad tidings will not comfort you.

Simon Cawkwell

[rwilliams57] 03/5/2011 11:33

Sorry chaps, the only area SC is being economical with the verite isI can see is that the tooway price is an introductory offer. Am I missing something?

[blue forever] 03/5/2011 11:31

Easy guys,the share price is going down unfortunately so for the moment the bears have it. If you`re in long(ish) term best to switch of and come back to it now and again to see where it is. Less angst that way !

[yorgi] 03/5/2011 11:30

Your wasting your time Gary he is only going to put out a negative spin knowing that his disciples will help him make a profit :-)......sorry gravity

[garymott] 03/5/2011 11:27

Simon, why can't you get your informant to answer the following simple question below which I keep asking you? If you can't then any reasonable person can only conclude that your informant has no idea what he/she is talking about because his/her forecasts are all over the place. Especially when he/she is basing it all on residential broadband when AVN's recent RNS clearly stated that over 50% of contracted orders to date are from government, corporate or military customers and that these are at prices which are ahead of market expectations.

A summary of the recent forecast annual revenues via you from your informant is as follows:-

11 April - "the two satellites could generate revenue of about GBP 60m p.a., less than half the level of management guidance."

11 April - "implied revenue level would then be GBP 42m" (for Hylas 1 + 2)

18 April - "100% of Hylas 1 capacity, annual revenues would be about EUR 45m (or about GBP 38m)."

18 April - "it maybe more realistic to expect Hylas 1 to generate peak revenue p.a. of around £33m p.a"

These forecasts vary massively over just one week. Bearing in mind Hylas 2 will have 3 times the capacity of Hylas 1, what does your informant now expect the realistic revenue for both Hylas 1 and 2?

P.S. £33m x 4 = £132m which is more than twice the forecast of £60m on 11 April which was commented to be "less than half the level of management guidance."

[yorgi] 03/5/2011 11:12

Spreading untruths, misinformation and ignoring facts is hardly relying on gravity.

[simon cawkwell] 03/5/2011 11:08

backmarker,

I have not sold any AVN for some weeks now. However, I have not reduced my short position at all - indeed it is at an all time high.

I am fascinated by your proposition that I am "trying to lay smoke". Nobody has ever laid smoke. I can't be bothered to try. I am merely leaving gravity to ease AVN's share price down. Obligingly, this is exactly what is happening.

Simon Cawkwell

[yorgi] 03/5/2011 09:58

Yes so much so he needs to keep repeating his story :-)

EDIT

Sorry I couldn't resist that Backmarker :-)

[backmarker] 03/5/2011 09:52

perhaps SC is simply trying to lay smoke while he disengages his short positions.

[backmarker] 03/5/2011 09:52

perhaps SC is simply trying to lay smoke while he disengages his short positions.

[yorgi] 03/5/2011 06:49

Quite frankly SC's game is laughable and in my opinion worthy of no more comment.

[mrangry2] 03/5/2011 06:09

Indeed. Avanti's website has their market section as:

"Avanti's telecommunications proposition begins where fixed-line and mobile networks end. Satellites provide universal coverage - overcoming the reach limitations facing traditional networks.

Our products are used by:

Telecommunications Companies
Internet Service Providers
VSAT Resellers
Systems Integrators
Mobile Operators
Government"

[marksnsparkle] 02/5/2011 19:57

This further illustrates my point

resell Avanti Hylas 1 and Eutelsat Ka-sat broadband

For residential users they are pushing Eutelsat ...


But for Business users they are pushing Avanti because of its value added services ...


So it might well be that Eutelsat are the most competitive when it comes to residential broadband ... but it looks like Avanti are most competitive for Government, military and business

I guess that is why Simon only likes to talk about residential broadband in his posts?

[peterpowell21] 02/5/2011 17:00

the old dog just wont go away will he.simple simon said,I'm right and all you fools are wrong.
no we are "truly mad".
well time will tell whos right and whos wrong.

[greengiant] 02/5/2011 13:59

Mr Angry,

ruralbroadband is still using old Hotbird prices and speeds. New Ka-Sat is substantially quicker. However again, what our esteemed friend has failed to tell us is that this is an introductory offer.

gg

[mrangry2] 02/5/2011 13:35

Have a look at the website he refers to - www.ruralbroadband.co.uk

I notice some advantages of choosing Avanti. For example:

"Our new service using the Hylas 1 satellite by Avanti PLC combines high speed satellite broadband with UK based ground stations. Unlike Tooway 3.6 this allows use of UK specific websites such as www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer and Channel 4OD."

Also, Tooway is 3.6 Mbps, Hylas is 8.

[greengiant] 02/5/2011 12:08

Yawn

Even you should be able to read this part without getting confused....

Due to the high demand we require an installation deposit of £299 (incl VAT) to book a fixed installation date.

Taken from the rural broadband site relating to Avanti

[simon cawkwell] 02/5/2011 11:47

Gentlemen,

My informant advises me this morning of the following. Truly, holders of AVN must be mad:

"Eutelsat's Tooway ka-sat service went live yesterday. Here is comparable UK pricing (from and Cenkos's source for Avanti pricing,

Speed FUP Price

Tooway / Avanti Tooway / Avanti Tooway / Avanti Note

6mb / 2mb 4gb / 6gb £25 / £33.60 Tooway 3x faster, Avanti has 50% larger data cap, Tooway a third cheaper

8mb / 4mb 8gb / 8gb £45 / £47.40 Tooway is twice as fast, same data cap, Tooway 5% cheaper

10mb / 8mb 13gb / 10gb £55 / £59.40 Tooway 25% faster, Tooway has 30% larger data cap, Tooway 8% cheaper

10mb / 8mb 25gb / 25gb £99 / £238.80 Tooway 25% faster, same data cap, Tooway less than half the price

I'll say no more as I assume even Avanti fans can do these maths."

What else is there to add?

Simon Cawkwell

[paleje] 28/4/2011 16:00

There's a post on Motley Fool from Jan which, if numbers are right, would suggest avanti services might be priced a bit high (or Eutelsat too low):-

[yorgi] 28/4/2011 15:45

Very true Pojscott :-( We just have to be patient.

[pojscott] 28/4/2011 15:15

Not so good today???