Avanti Capital Share Discussion Threads

[clint2006] 10/7/2006 12:38

I have been investing in this company since its inception back in 1999, been through some rough times but it has survived and is growing. In short

Watch mblox fly! (value of companies 7.7% stake no where near, reflected in book value, my opinion)

Medcenter Solution profitable from start and strong demand for products should see fantastic revenue growth. (estimates of 300% this year not unrealitic)

Expresso Broadband showing signs of value growth to NAV

Wordmap going strong in the states.

and the much maligned Barvest still a good bet given the cherry picking the company has done and the fact Phelp's (anti plc) paid off and gone. This should allow the new management team (inc Avanti) to prosper.

Only need one of these to come good and float and we will all be in the money.

Who knows what the NAV really is given mblox a large contributor to this figure. No-one knows the true value of the companies stake. A lot of cosolidation going on in telecoms business with smaller companies than mblox going for $100m to $250m. Andrew Bud CEO and co founder has already said if the offer is right he would consider or even potential float early next year. 2007.

[lbo] 29/6/2006 08:16

Think I will side with Reuben Harley, Roger Dyer, John Smith and Anna Garrod who have put their money on the line and not just some words. They are managers and shareholders!

[jeffian] 29/6/2006 00:07

OK. Let's see how it pans out, but it isn't about what management think; it's about shareholder returns and this company has been a consistent destroyer of shareholder value. Of course AVA is not reliant on its BarClub investment but, however good the others, I think, conversely, you underplay the damage it could still potentially do. Good luck to you with this investment, but you mustn't mind if I tell it how I see it from time to time (and, if you do, there's always the filter button......!)

Regards, Ian

[lbo] 28/6/2006 22:07

Well obviously others (Avanti and Barclub managment) disagree with you and are happy to keep the business. I agree we are all entitled to our opinions. But I still think many have a lot more trust in them then the guy/guys who really think Avanti Capital and its valuation is so reliant on its BarClub investment.

[jeffian] 28/6/2006 19:46

As we haven't met, I'm not sure why you've taken such a personal dislike to me LBO, but it certainly isn't reciprocated on my part. Surely the point of these threads is to discuss/argue about shares from all points of view and let people draw their own conclusions. I freely admit that I know nothing about any of AVA's tech investments but, as a former shareholder, I did know something/have a view on their former management and I do know something about the pubs/bars business and felt I had something to contribute here. Post 208 is not "self indulgence", it is moving the argument forward by pointing out that they have still not bitten the bullet and it seems to me that the new arrangement is window-dressing to protect the balance sheet from write-offs. My view is that Barvest Mk2 still has the potential to bite AVA investors both in terms of draining cash and damaging the balance sheet and that's a point of view current and potential investors may wish to consider. You can argue/dispute/rubbish the point at will but putting your fingers in your ears and shouting "La la la, I'm not listening" is likely to lead to another "no-one could have foreseen" post when the next RNS discloses more disappointments from the pubs/bars subsidiary. On a personal note, I did run an "actual" business (happily completely unlike AVA in both style and performance) which was sold in 1998 on sufficiently attractive terms to allow me to fritter away my time on bb's like this one!

8-)

Regards, Ian

[lbo] 28/6/2006 17:51

I'd respond but I keeping an engaged tone when I ring "La La Land".

Perhaps, if people stopped living in "La La Land" and were indeed so intelligent and knowledgable then they would be running an actual business or a company like Avanti and not just posting on ADVFN on how it should be done.

But hey if you don't have gandeur you must need to have delusions of grandeur!

(as they say, you have those who can and those who think they can)

[jeffian] 28/6/2006 17:39

LBO,

When you say "I agree the bar business has not gone as well as they hoped but many external events have occured making the envionment a lot more difficult and no one could have forseen those events", you are air-brushing history. This outcome was entirely foreseeable. I said this on another AVA thread in October 03 and I've been saying pretty much the same here for the past 18 months.

"jeffian - 22 Oct'03 - 16:11 - 54 of 245 edit

................As for knowing anything about running 'nite spots' - if 'playboys' Aspinall and Bilton are still on the board here (?), be aware that having a detailed knowledge from a customer's point of view does not necessarily qualify you to understand the finances of these things as an investor (otherwise George Best would be Chairman of Mitchells & Butler). The managed bar/nitespot sector is notoriously fashion-led with an insecure customer base and the sector is strewn with the wreckage of those who've tried. There must be an evens chance this lot will join 'em - with your money!"

Regards, Ian

[lbo] 28/6/2006 17:31

I see we have a one man orgy of self indulgent ego gratification going on. May aswell not disturb him and leave him alone to fornicate with his own ego then shock him with the reality of the real world perceptions.

regards
LBO!

LOL

[jeffian] 28/6/2006 17:24

Well, the Barvest scenario seems to be unfolding exactly as I foretold. Keeping the rump going (and having to act as principal banker because Barclays won't - not a huge vote of confidence in the new vehicle!) looks like a desperate attempt to avoid biting the bullet and taking the write-off but I fear it will just prolong the agony.

Regards, Ian

[lbo] 28/6/2006 17:14

Where is all this so called "chucking cash at it"??? Its been EBITDA positive and paying interest on the loans. I agree not the worlds greatest investment but the equity element is more or less in for free so who cares. At the end of the day, the investment does a job for Avanti and thats bring in some interest. I agree the bar business has not gone as well as they hoped but many external events have occured making the envionment a lot more difficult and no one could have forseen those events. Still think those that go through the short term pain here will see the gain.

Anyway a lot more to the Avanti game then just the Bar business and I suspect very soon this will no longer be a listed entity IMHO.

[lbo] 28/6/2006 16:58

They are still EBITDA positive and better to pay high interest to Avanti IMHO then get hit by double taxation on profits on the Barvest and the Avanti sides.

I would definately buy/loan a £2.35m EBITDA business for £8.25m!

A 3.5 mutiple should easily with any slight movement in revenue on such a fixed cost business lead to an exit in excess of a 5x multiple.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 28/6/2006 16:54

Well that´s true, you don´t have to pay tax unless you make a profit.

[lbo] 28/6/2006 16:51

Smaller and yet more rationalised. And yes they have more debt but its more tax efficient for Avanti that way.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 28/6/2006 16:44

The problems is LBO that Barvest/Barclub/Barlocks not only hasn´t managed to pay back any of the cash it owes AVA, it´s actually had to borrow more and it´s getting smaller.

[lbo] 28/6/2006 16:33

The EBITDA (before head office costs) made by the 18 bars and clubs being
acquired for the year ended 30 June 2005 was £2.35m and in the year ending 30
June 2006, is forecast to produce a EBITDA (before head office costs) not
materially different to this.

By the way Avanti initially invested only £0.6m for 60% of the equity, with the balance of £6.4m being invested by way of a secured preferred loan note bearing a return on exit of 37.5% per annum. These loan notes were repayed via refinacing with Barclays.

Now Avanti are getting £8.25m for the more rationalised 18 bars and loaning this back to the new entity BarClub trading at 10% pa interest and still retain a 60% equity interest.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 28/6/2006 16:18

Pre close trading update.

Barvest has gone broke but AVA have chucked more cash after the best 18 bars.

Now called Barclub. Next time it goes broke they can chuck more cash after the best 8 bars and call it barlocks or something.

[insideryou] 14/6/2006 11:25

this has take over written all over this... on my shares to buy this week..

[adam] 13/6/2006 09:07

Monstermob warns. Also noteable that Avanti are not buying back own stock, although could be because price sensitive info prevetns like the transaction mentioned in Inquirer.

[growbag] 05/6/2006 22:02

nice one - that could double the value of Avanti's mBlox holding - or at least peg it aroun £1 per share - adding another 40p per share (ex. Barvest) to NAV. It's a pity that the share buy-back doesn't seem to be raising the discount to NAV as intended. Avanti has to worth £2 per share on a conservative estimate.

[adam] 02/6/2006 09:44

WIN plc, a competitor of mblox has given a profit warning. Down over 30%.

[adam] 08/5/2006 16:13

Some generalised but interesting sector comments on Citywire w.r.t results from 2ergo....

Joint chief executive Barry Sharples told Citywire that while consumer use of text messaging has become all pervasive, once businesses start using it in anger it will surpass consumer usage by an order of magnitude

[lbo] 08/5/2006 13:19

More share buy backs too