SS, I think in theory you are correct. However, in reality, I have observed that, for whatever mysterious reasons, shares that remain listed never trade down to zero but always retain some share price level right down to the day of suspension or delisting, even if the shares are obviously worthless. I do not understand why, but I assume there must always be some punters who will buy a share at 0.1p in the hope that there will be some miraculous recovery, and at the same time there are few sellers because those that still hold the stock have already lost 99% of their capital, so they see no reason to sell now and recover some small change.
Therefore the only way to make money from a short here is to ride it all they way into suspension/delisting/administration, with the problems described in my earlier post. |
BP, I infer (dishonest and egomaniac?) Adventis directors have decided to keep listing for 1-2 months. The 2011 accounts, to be isssued 'shortly', will flatline the share price within 7 days I predict.
I predict Adventis 2011 accounts will show loss of -£8m to -£10m [not the -£5.5m that liars Winks/Pearson told the market on 20-1-2012. They will also confirm my predicted insolvency deficit of -6p per share. Plus the directors report and audit report will use lots of clear words like 'insolvet liqidation' and 'deficit'.
You can make another 90% profit in a week, and here you know exactly what event will crystallise your profit and roughly when. Shorter heaven? The shorter Gods will punish you if you scorn their plentiful bounty! OK, just kidding, it matters not a jot, and amounts are small. But I will tease you about this when I am (again) proved right on the numbers. Comversely I suppose I will apologise if somehow I am wrong, which I doubt! |
yes but you have the hassle of having to deal with closing a position once the stock is delisted. I am still carrying daily fees on GAME which are eating into the 100% profit I made there and no sign of the position being closed out.
Better to move on to the next short, for example MUL. |
Interesting strategy SilkStag, thanks for the reply. |
Shroder, I posted on a different thread on 8 June:
"after ATG is delisted in a few months [I now predict 1-2 months] your broker can close even a naked short with the market-makers or a broker. That is what the CFD people do. Some shareholders always want to get off the register or reduce their dead position. Here the director's statement of affairs for the Administrator or liquidator will show a multi-million pound creditor deficit so it will be clear the shares are worth zero pence in all scenarios".
You can short T10 or T20 and know the 2011 accounts will come out before then to flatline the share price. The drectors' report and audit report will talk about insolvent liquidation and we will be able to check my liquidation deficit estimate of about -6p per share. |
Are you selling short via a 'T' trade, ie not covered?
"Still a good short and expect price to fall 90% to 0.025p 'shortly' [inside 7 days]" |
 Gents, Winks/Pearson are now forced to value the Tech Division at its genuine low realisable value (guess £1m cash proceeds + some creditors novated/waived), rather than the crooked over-valuation of about £6.8m they included in the 30-6-2011 balance sheet.
Tech operating profit crashed in second half of 2011 to just £80k and maybe it did not recover in 2012. As posted before, that could reduce the £2.5m earnout liabilities and they could be partly or fully wrapped into or written off as part of the trade sale.
Nail in coffin W) Accounts will show 2011 loss was ballpark -£8m (maybe -£10m). Compare that with the -£5m that Winks/Pearson suggested to the market on 20-1-2012 i.e after the 2011 year-end!
Nail in coffin X) Liquidation deficit in the statement of affairs looks on track for mid of my -4p to -8p range, at about -6p.
Perhaps one or two more final nails (Y and Z) before liquidator is formally hired.
Those accounts are due 'shortly' and I would question the samity of punters who hold a positive shareholding. Still a good short and expect price to fall 90% to 0.025p 'shortly' [inside 7 days]. 27howard, I dare you! |
Although they are not paying .25 to sell they are paying .21. |
Even when it looks grim you could have almost doubled your money, 0.15p offer
yesterday and now 0.25p bid, 66% clear profit |
Did you find it easy to borrow stock for your position? |
BP, thanks. Now you can short again at 0.2p for another 90% profit! |
SilkStag....well done for pre warning PI's on the outcome.....makes you wonder if the whole truth and nothing but the truth is being told across the PLC casinos (small/tiny caps).....need to see more of the Shareholder Springs that are doing the rounds play a full time role..... |
UKMassy
I was watching this afternoon's trades after the announcement. I traded a few for beer money and got in at 0.15p. I was watching for a quick doubler but threw in the towel at the end of the day. My own view is there might be a small bounce tomorrow but very hard to make it worthwhile with the spread. The statement is terminal and therefore most of the speculative appeal there was here has been removed.
Having said that, I have seen some crazy trading in terminal stocks and temporary turnarounds so probably best just to watch the action and take it from there.
P.S - if you like similar types of risk - HAMP is one worth looking at. To be realistic, like this there is probably no value left for shareholders also but bombed out and still speculative because the fatal RNS might be some way off. Might be worth a short term punt although with all these stocks, probably best to assume there is no medium or long term prospects. |
So do you think there will be a dead cat bounce tomorrow? |
RNS "The Company is working with its auditors to enable them to conclude the audit for the year ended 31 December 2011 and to finalise the form of their audit opinion and expects to release its final year results shortly".
That suggests Winks/Pearson (dishonenst egomaniacs) want to keep the shares listed until they appoint the liquidator. If so, then ATG is still a viable short at 0.2p. The Bid-Offer should settle down at about 0.025p to 0.05p after the 2011 accounts are issued and show the creditor deficit running into many millions. |
362 - NOOOOOOOOOOOO! Don't take the risk. Silkstag has been saying for months these shares are worthless. The company has confirmed that today. They will be suspended and delisted in the near future, I wouldn't risk even £500 on a day trade (especially if such a trade relies on idiots risking 100% of their money buying after me, for me to make a profit). |
jonyjackles, Adventis will be delisted in near future as shares are worth 0p in all scenarios. Liquidaion deficit -4p to -8p. Why would anyone want to be on the share register now?
Sale of 3,069,300 shares at 0.1p today rather proves the point. |
will this bounce back to around say 0.70? what are you thoughts? |
Loverat, thank you for the kind words. You "could not get a grip on the balance sheet and the figures" because Winks/Pearson set out to deceive you, in breach of AiM Rule 10. They omitted pivotal facts from their RNSs. I unpicked their deceit by trawling through, and perfroming calculations from, earlier RNSs to collate the missing information. For example:
In the 10-5-2012 RNS (and 20-1-2012 RNS) Winks/Pearson concealed that the Tech Division second half profit collapsed from £616,000 [H2 2010] to just £80,000 [H2 2011]. Instead they said "We have two profitable and highly promising technology businesses which will now have to be sold". No mention or hint of the profit collapse. This pivotal fact shows that sale of the Tech Division had no prospect of meeting the group's net liabilities (the scale of which they also concealed).
Winks/Pearson are not fit and proper people to serve as Directors of quoted, or any, companies.
ps thanks Bozzy_s |
Good call silkstag, bad luck to genuine investors, up yours to rampers and pump and dump artists. Another case of the inevitable happened but rose-tinted glasses prevented some from seeing the bleedin' obvious when presented by a white knight on this BB. |
Loverat somewhat more elegantly put than my proceeding rant. |
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