Thankyou bbd2 and billy3. Good explanations in both posts.
I still feel this project has merit, could generate much profit etc etc.
But, the PL factor! That's the big unknown for me. |
There is an interview on research tree dot come with the CO on yesterdays announcement.
Very reassuring.
Mentioned that Market cap on company is 25 mil and investment values it over double that.
I read somewhere about a cash rate is 2026.
But the recent signed agreement is 1 million up front, 5 million up to FID then the rest on FID. So see no need for any raise at the moment.
He even talked about agreements being a dozen pages now running to 100's as it gets very complex towards FID.
I bought more today to average down as bought higher, but also last week at 34p.
It is still speculative as its not a done deal yet.
But the rewards would be Huge over a few years.
There is also an Investor meet interview next Thursday at 10am which you can sign up to and submit questions in advance.
DYOR |
If they did a placing to raise funds then we would get diluted. A loan would just be a liability on the balance sheet and would only be of concern if the interest payments were offered to be repaid in shares; which would be an immediate red flag and signal to run for he hills. As always, market sentiment does directly affect the SP, and with such a large amount of capital needed, will be based on whether the market thinks they can complete the project, service the debt and make a profit. Unusually, we already have a customer signed up for the end product but will we get there.
Then of course we have the PL factor, which is probably what is driving market sentiment more than anything else at the moment.
My guess is that the share price will recover once the detail of the funding is known and once the project is part completed, a Blue Chip will Swoop in and take it over. |
bbd2: I was hoping you may have been correct in your post # 926 in respect of Green Funds.
But, seeing the inexorable fall in the share price continuing worries me.
Having read the RNS I'm thinking that there may be further dilution of the shares by way of additional investors getting involved.
I have to admit, I am not familiar with these small AIM type setups and the way they raise funding alongside the shareholders. I am reluctant to bore Dake1 - or indeed anyone else for that matter - but could it be that our shares will gradually continue to drift downwards because 'new money' is being injected and, presumably, a share of the pie is being gifted in recompense?
If I am correct then each mention of further financial support/injection will further reduce the share price
I do accept that once progress is being made at a pace and possibly even before production begins the share price may well rise but from a much lower point than I bought in at for the g'kids port's.
Any thoughts? |
Should see some of the green funds starting to take a position now. |
RNS- Phew…… and relax! |
Atome Keynote presenters. |
 There's a tendency when holding investments to want to read what is positive and what reinforces your beliefs.
I hold these in quite small amounts in my three grandkids' trust accounts. They are a 'punt'. When I bought them I seriously had high hopes. The concept sounded sensible. At that time the excess electricity from the Paraguay dam had been secured by Atome and the initial intention was to create green Hydrogen.
Then it was realised that the market for that didn't exist, certainly not locally, and transportation would be costly. A far better business plan was then created by the intent to produce ammonia and from that, fertiliser. Still sound.
Somewhere along the line I got wind of Levine and his past dealings. I became uneasy with his track record and for that reason I didn't increase the small holdings. I did however buy into Rolls Royce for the grandkids. When such were at £1.19. Today, they are almost at £6.30
Now, at the risk of boring you further, I have concluded that to sell the small amount each kid holds would hardly be worth the effort. It wouldn't matter if the share price dropped to a couple of pence - and that may happen. For your and other investors sakes I seriously hope that does not happen.
But, on the slim chance that Atome might be more than an expense account for the Levine family and these shares motor upwards the kids will be quite happy.
So, on the balance of risk/reward I'll pass on selling. I cannot guarantee you'll not be bored in future though - unless you filter me and remain happy in your belief that no detrimental posts being read equals a solid investment.
😂 |
Mcunliffe why don’t you just sell then and stop boring us |
I'm of the same opinion FEWDOLLARS. |
Sold out of these from holding Mrp, president or whatever they changed the name to, tax write off for me luckily made up losses from other trades. Warning to anyone thinking this or anything else Levine is involved with will come good - you have 2 Hopes, Bob and No. |
I found this report from a few days ago:
There's mention of Capex light transportation by Yara. As I figure it, Atome is making ammonium nitrate and will mix this with limestone and nitrogen for the local market but it would seem odd to me to ship the additional weight to Europe via bulk tanker. Better to sell the ammonium nitrate to Yara who will ship that element to Europe to use as an ingredient with locally sourced limestone and nitrogen to make the end fertiliser product.
However, the whole thing relies upon a cheap supply of electric. That is currently available because the hydro plant produces more than is needed - at the moment. If that changes and the electric can be sold elsewhere by the hydro generator (Brazil maybe) then the economics change when the supply contract comes up for renewal. |
Thanks Billy for reminding me of that. |
Here is some relevant info from an update…..
The first project is at Villeta in Paraguay. It benefits from a 145MW renewable power purchase agreement and 30 hectares of land in a tax free zone. Front End Engineering Design studies have been completed and Heads of Terms signed with Yara, the leading international fertiliser company for offtake of all of Villeta's production. The Company is now negotiating the project finance with a view to commencing work by end 2024. There is a further 300MW of renewable power reserved for ATOME in Paraguay.
In Costa Rica, The National Ammonia Corporation S.A. was formed in 2022 with local partner Cavendish S.A. based in Costa Rica to develop green fertiliser projects for the region. As well as straddling the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, Costa Rica is a democratic Central American country. In agriculture, Costa Rica is the second largest supplier of pineapples in the world and is in the top ten banana growers.
All power for ATOME is from 100% renewable sources and all chosen sites are located close to the power and water sources and export facilities to serve significant domestic and then international demand. |
I'm sure they have got a good deal on the electricity, because the power is surplus to requirements at the moment. But in addition to that, Atome's market is fertilisers, which is more certain at the moment than selling hydrogen. |
Their end product is neither hydrogen nor ammonia.
It is fertiliser.
They have an off take agreement for the excess hydro electricity. |
A report in the Daily Mail fin. section today is unsupportive of Hydrogen as a future green energy source. It reports that in Australia where great hopes have been pinned on Hydrogen, together with huge investments, all is not rosy and it may all just be hot air.
It appears to me that producing ammonia is a better bet than pure hydrogen for many reasons but it also appears to me that the cost of the electricity essential for the electrolysis is critical. I hope Atome have negotiated both a low price and a long contract period (at that low price) otherwise this venture may become unaffordable down the line. |
This one smells like president energy aka molecular energy all over again.Shareholders getting shafted big style.Best avoided!! |
Thanks CVH |
SP ANGEL RESEARCH NOTE
House broker share price Angel today (17 February 2025) released an updated research note on the company.
And with news expected imminently, the timing of the release is telling in its own right. Below is an excerpt of the Proactive article:
"ATOME PLC (AIM:ATOM) has started 2025 in a "strong position" to begin construction and make the final investment decision (FID) on its flagship 145MW Villeta green fertiliser project in Paraguay in the first half of the year, says broker share price Angel."
"The developer of green fertiliser projects had a 'buy' rating reiterated by the company's house broker, along with a 200p per share target price, which compares to the last close price of 35p."
"The broker updated its financial projections, too, now forecasting that Villeta's Phase 1 should generate circa US$70 million EBITDA per annum from 2028."
"This followed an update two weeks ago from ATOME, which revealed that detailed work on project finance for the 145MW Villeta Phase 1 green fertiliser project has gathered pace so far in 2025, with significant progress made on multiple workstreams."
"SP Angel highlighted recent news flow in the global hydrogen sector that has been "mixed", with both Equinor and Yara highlighting declining economics associated with 'blue' ammonia projects..."
"Meanwhile, leading global fertiliser companies, the broker also noted, expect growth in the low carbon ammonia market to 24 mtpa by 2032, from close to zero now, owing to the implementation of stringent Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) regulations and carbon taxes in Europe from next year."
"Yara is also planning a transition to low-carbon footprint fertilisers produced with renewable electricity through a portfolio of projects in Norway, the Netherlands, Australia and Paraguay, the broker said."
"Yara’s pivot to a more capex-light strategy should means that focus will be on securing low carbon fertiliser offtake agreements with third parties to supply their international customer base, which is supportive of ATOME’s business model."
SP Angel said, "we expect the company to deliver several near-term valuation catalysts that will de-risk the Villeta development and its forecast stable cashflows..."
A 200p target price says it all!
ATB |
RampRsR fkD |
Email response from the company on 14 February 2025: Posted on LSE.
"We acknowledge your email and the points you raise."
"We reiterate the update report given just over a week ago (5th Feb) where it was stated that significant progress is being made on multiple workstreams, including on project finance, and that investors can expect a further update this month."
"This is still the case. In fact, if there had been any material adverse change to the business or to those key workstreams, we would be under obligation to update the market on this. Such announcement is certainly not anticipated."
"The Company is of course aware and disappointed at the decline of the share price, especially given the material progress and de-risking made with regards to the project development, not to mention that directors are aware of their obligations to shareholders and themselves have significant interest in the Company and are heavily aligned with shareholders."
"With regards to the Company's market capitalisation, this has not been a concern to prospective lenders and equity participants into the project, particularly as Villeta will be financed at the asset level."
"We understand that timelines have previously shifted since we started development. Nevertheless, the project began as a 60MW green ammonia facility which has since transformed into the development of what is projected to be the world's first dedicated green fertiliser facility with 145MW of power capacity as well as the further progression of our existing pipeline."
"Whether it's offtake, EPC contract or project finance, discussions for a major first of a kind project of this nature take time and require careful consideration."
"Your comments on communication are noted. Please be aware that given the commercially sensitive nature of these workstreams, updates will be given at the appropriate time and as consulted by our advisors. We aim to ensure impact of this will be maximised."
"Please rest assured that management is working on delivering the right results in the interests of all shareholders and we strongly believe 2025 will be a transformational year for ATOME."
Again, a great opportunity.
ATB. |
Social Media Activity on ATOME. Below post also on X:
"PennyStocks on Rd posted 16hrs ago... Link is being deleted.
"In the next few weeks / month I suspect they are going to announce a Final Investment Decision (FID) for what would be the largest green fertiliser project in the world, with 145 MW of power. The latest press release mentions ‘complex’; arrangements and they have previously announced the debt portion of the funding to be oversubscribed by THREE times. The complex part makes me think they are looking to either do a sale of the project or arrange a farm out agreement, which is common in oil and gas projects but far more attractive here because there is no risk of a ‘dry well’."
"If they sell or farm out, various equity researchers predict the share price will be about 200-250p. I would caveat this was before an equity raise in November 2024, but I reckon 150-200p could be achievable. The share price is currently 35p representing about 5-6x growth."
"On top of all this, ATOME have plans to develop a 300 MW project in another part of Paraguay. So double the current one. If they announce anything positive on this project soon, the share price could go way way higher."
"This is not financial advice and always do your own DD. But this one is far too good not to share."
Happy investing 🚀😃
My view: Great opportunity at 35p! |
bountyhunter28 Dec '21 - 17:36 - 127 of 193
0 1 0
This is Money (The Mail)
British banks, green energy firms and bargains in Japan are tipped to soar..
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andymunchkin29 Dec '21 - 15:08 - 133 of 193 Edit
0 0 4
40p TesTTesT
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bountyhunter29 Dec '21 - 15:16 - 134 of 193
0 3 0
Go away you lowlife. Stalking isn't clever.
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anYOne sEEn bOUntY dEEd oR aLive??? |
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