Associated British Foods Share Discussion Threads

[skinny] 05/11/2019 09:28

A positive start!


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[skinny] 05/11/2019 08:53

Liberum Capital Buy 2338.00 3070.00 Reiterates

[essentialinvestor] 05/11/2019 08:38

Neatly £1 billion in net cash - excluding the legacy lease liabilities.

[philanderer] 04/11/2019 18:06

Fingers crossed for tomorrow, no surprises.

[philanderer] 02/11/2019 00:10

'Associated British Foods share price: what’s the latest ahead of its full-year results'

The British food processing and retail company will unveil its full-year results next week, with the company on track to meet its annual targets due to a strong performance from Primark.

[philanderer] 21/10/2019 23:49

Berenberg note:

Analysts at Berenberg reiterated their 'buy' recommendation for shares of Associated British Foods, telling clients that the combination of a valuation discount for the firm's fashion unit, Primark, and signs that the sugar price was "bottoming out" made for a good entry point into the shares.

They also pointed out how the stock was - taking away the dip in the share price in December 2018 - changing hands at its lowest level since 2012.

A comparison between peers' valuation multiples and those of ABF's smallest units revealed that Primark was trading at a 44.0% discount to Next - instead of the typical historical premium of 19.0%.

That was "despite its superior business model (2x sales densities) and significant international growth opportunity."

Furthermore, a poor back half of the year for Primark that had "spooked" investors, softness in Sterling and uncertainty around the sugar price had all weighed on the shares, the analysts said, but they went on to add that the current weakness was now more than priced in.

Regarding Primark, the analysts believed that "this weakness is more than priced in, creating a buying opportunity" and went on to emphasise the company's "unique" business model and said that the international opportunity for the unit was "underappreciated".

"We forecast international to drive a 5% revenue and 4% EBITDA CAGR for Primark over the next three years, compared with 3% and 0% respectively for Next," they said in a research note sent to clients.

As an aside, given ABF's dominance of the UK sugar market and proposed changes to the UK import tariff regime, they believed that ABF would be a net beneficiary in the event of a hard Brexit.

Analysts Michelle Wilson, Graham Renwick and Michael Benedict did however trim their target price for the shares from 2,800.0p to 2,700.0p.

[tlobs2] 21/10/2019 15:22

Berenberg might be right ;-)

[philanderer] 21/10/2019 09:43

BERENBERG CUTS AB FOODS PRICE TARGET TO 2700 (2800) PENCE - 'BUY'

[philanderer] 16/10/2019 00:43

NXT seem to have their finger on the pulse , very well managed.

[essentialinvestor] 16/10/2019 00:33

Selling out of Next a few weeks back thinking I could buy back lower down ...
not going to plan!.

[philanderer] 16/10/2019 00:15

Primark warns customers to stop buying its products online from Amazon

[tlobs2] 11/10/2019 10:51

An excellent day ........... at long last. And an improving Dollar exchange rate :-)

[essentialinvestor] 10/10/2019 12:59

I'm just under 29% invested atm which is costing me heavily in terms of
lost dividend income. Was pretty sure we would see some correction but it's
never really got going.

WTB are a big beneficiary of EU labour, so it may beg the question ...who will
fill those job roles when we leave the EU and at what cost to the business ..?
potentially higher wages etc.

[philanderer] 10/10/2019 12:45

Afternoon EI. I'm sitting on a bit of cash and also tempted to add some WTB :-)

[essentialinvestor] 10/10/2019 12:08

Hi Phil, added a small amount more of WTB.
It looks as if the market is attempting to price in a UK recession,
or something very close. Typically Next still remain above my selling price!.

[philanderer] 10/10/2019 09:43

All I can see is a poorly received update from DNLM this mornin ... Can't really see this as a reason for a read across though.

[philanderer] 10/10/2019 09:16

None of the 'experts' are even close to this..


10th sept Goldmans neutral tp 2500p
10th sept UBS buy tp -
9th sept Barclays overweight tp 3200p
9th sept Credit Suisee outperform tp 2650p
9th sept Shore Cap buy -
9th sept Liberum buy tp 3070p

9th sept +++ pre close trading update ++++

[philanderer] 10/10/2019 08:55

Sub 2000p a real possibility now.

Morning everyone.

Either this is totally mispriced or some people know something we don't.

[essentialinvestor] 09/10/2019 19:50

On fundamentals there are a couple of factors to keep in mind.
Firstly, the de-rating in PER terms has followed the slowdown in Primark
UK's extraordinary decade plus growth rates. Without that growth and a below
market yield (even at the current share price) the shares were vulnerable
to a multiple de-rating. The US market may eventually be a growth driver, however
that's too early to call.

Whether younger consumers begin to question buying high volume
disposable clothing needs to be monitored - I'm not sure that will happen.

Any GBP strength is supportive.

[bamboo2] 09/10/2019 19:12

From the lows at the start of 2019, there is an obvious H&S pattern. This is confirmed and the tp is around these lows at approx 2011.
2011 is also historical support.

Multi year there is a much bigger H&S pattern. This has a tp approx 900 lower at around 1100. It's not confirmed, and even if confirmed it is likely that historical support [1870,1800,1600 etc] would kick in before the 1100 tp was met.

edit, what a weird coincidence with the post number!
Should have waited and posted at eleven min past eight

[philanderer] 09/10/2019 16:41

EI, good decision so far. Dog of the portfolio today for the umpteenth time.

[essentialinvestor] 07/10/2019 20:00

I'm holding off for now, probably a good sign for the SP!.