Associated British Foods Share Discussion Threads

[tlobs2] 08/11/2022 08:17

Looks like Citadel have been caught with their pants down :-)

Fund % short change Date changed
Citadel Advisors Europe Limited 0.58% -0.02% 4 Nov 2022
Citadel Advisors LLC 0.58% -0.04% 4 Nov 2022
Total 1.16%

Pretty big positions to close particularly as ABF will be moping up shares on a daily basis :-)

[deadly nightshade] 08/11/2022 08:02

500 million share buy back is shrewd move to

[tlobs2] 08/11/2022 07:59

WOW, wasn't expecting that !

Share buy back is what I had hoped for when the price was on the floor not as it starts to rocket ;-)

[deadly nightshade] 08/11/2022 07:58

Agreed suet these are smart business people that run ABF you don't consistently make billions in profit over the years if your not a well run company. Hopefully share price will soon reflect this

[essentialinvestor] 08/11/2022 07:33

Well that's one way of looking at it!, perhaps if they felt Primark could
raise prices they would?.

[suetballs] 08/11/2022 07:29

What a great company - looking after customers employees and shareholders.
Price freezes at Primark should ensure customer loyalty.
Suet

[philanderer] 06/11/2022 00:26

ABF faces test with results imminent


Associated British Foods' commitment to keeping Primark clothes at bargain prices will face a fresh test when it releases annual results on Tuesday.

ABF – which also owns Twinings and British Sugar – said in September that business in 2022 was on track, but steered analysts to lower forecasts in its next financial year.

Sales are expected to have risen 20 per cent to £16.7billion.

But will ABF's promise not to raise Primark prices any further still be realistic as the cost-of-living crisis bites?

[philanderer] 14/10/2022 00:07

AB Foods, the owner of High Street retailer Primark, rose 2.9 per cent, or 36.5p, to 1286.5p after revealing its discount clothing store would be launching a click-and-collect trial service at 25 of its stores before the end of the year.

[unastubbs] 10/10/2022 11:01

m kerr, all the above is most likely correct but there is a such a large conglomerate discount here with the added variable of a sale of any element of the business being totally dependent on the Weston family and their willingness to proceed. Hence the very depressed share price. Worth holding though.

[m_kerr] 29/9/2022 21:43

they own 30% of their primark freeholds. take off the net cash (no interest rate exposure) and the underlying businesses are on sale for less than £7bn. even in this market, there is very significant value in a high return, branded, global food business doing £350-400m EBIT. similarly for the internationally skewed ingredients business (£150m+ EBIT). with their balance sheet, they're in a position to cherry pick assets that come up for sale.

i've always thought they've been far too conservative with their gearing, but they will see the benefits of that now. most large FMCG businesses have a hefty chunk of debt to service - that's not a concern here.

risk is actually lowest when the price is beaten way down to reflect a very pessimistic outlook, where negative sentiment and share price performance feed off one another.

[philanderer] 21/9/2022 09:50

UBS cuts AB Foods to 'neutral' (buy) - price target 1,450 (2,300) pence

[essentialinvestor] 14/9/2022 20:53

deadly, the points I've made about the market expecting earnings to increase
in 2023 until the recent update, that Primark like 4 like sales are still below
2019 levels and finally UK consumer sentiment is currently weak, are all factual.

You can make a case a lot/or all is discounted in the SP, your guess on that is
as good as mine, and probably better!.

[netcurtains] 14/9/2022 08:11

Another retailer, Dunelm Group plc reported today. Currently 7% up

[philanderer] 12/9/2022 11:25

RBC cuts AB Foods price target to 1,500 (1,700) pence - 'sector perform'

Goldman Sachs cuts AB Foods price target to 1,380 (1,690) pence - 'sell'

[wad collector] 12/9/2022 09:27

Was in the IC calendar but no signs of a TU yet. Some mistake somewhere.
OOPS just remembered it was last week , though the IC calendar is wrong too!
Trying to watch too many shares, currently 112 in our portfolio. I know , too many..

[unastubbs] 11/9/2022 12:15

wad collector - get your coat!!

[wad collector] 11/9/2022 09:29

TU tomorrow might bring some better news, but doubt it.

[philanderer] 09/9/2022 10:43

Barclays cuts AB Foods to 'equal weight' ('overweight') - price target 1500 (2300) pence

JPMorgan cuts AB Foods price target to 1,630 (1,900) pence - 'neutral'

[philanderer] 09/9/2022 10:40

No bounce on the best market day for a while :-(

[m_kerr] 08/9/2022 21:22

right, but on a sum of the parts basis primark is almost chucked in for free.

primark's historic operating margin is 10-12%, and here they are saying it will be about 7%, so not a bad result IMV. the disappointing thing that i think investors picked up on is that cash generation was poor due to a working capital build up, and due to the extremely conservative leverage policy, there won't be a chunky dividend. more a bump in the road than existential threat i think.

conglomerates can be broken up over time, just look at DMGT, timing is out of our control, but in the end a gap between price and value at these extremes will not last forever. this is a very well run company with a strong balance sheet, and it almost entirely caters to needs not wants.

[deadly nightshade] 08/9/2022 21:13

Any company that averages nearly 800 million profit a year over the past 5 can't be doing that bad. Also this share price was priced higher when covid was rampaging and all the stores were shut so I struggle to get what point you are making essentialinvestor. I read somewhere the debt gearing is only 0.8 so if that don't mean a well run company then I don't know what is. That being said I wouldnt be surprised to see share price screwed down even further knowing how our markets seem to react. Makes you wonder how other companies must be trading because when ever I go into town it's only Primark that seems to be doing any trade every other clothes shops hardly have anyone in but always a long queue in Primark when ever I buy anything

[essentialinvestor] 08/9/2022 20:36

mk, Weston family trust own over 50% of the equity, that might be complicated.

One striking snippet - Primark sales
are 9% below 2019 levels - I assume not
Inflation adjusted, so a significant fall from the pre covid peak.

[deadly nightshade] 08/9/2022 20:11

Good post m Kerr