Associated British Foods Share Discussion Threads

[unastubbs] 08/9/2022 08:06

unfortunately i bought yesterday. perhaps i should be jonah stubbs???

[suetballs] 08/9/2022 08:04

Or time to buy Una?
Suet

[unastubbs] 08/9/2022 07:59

just telling how it is, negative, positive, bull, bear. i'm confident in the long term prospects but i've seen how the market takes bad news in markets like this. put your crash helmet on.

[suetballs] 08/9/2022 07:52

Una - so negative - we’ve had difficult times before and we will again.
Suet

[suetballs] 08/9/2022 07:49

Also Liz Truss may help us out today.
Suet

[netcurtains] 08/9/2022 07:48

Seems to be suggesting that lots of profit in food. Could be good for likes of M&S....

[unastubbs] 08/9/2022 07:47

first rule of investing - nothing is ever completely priced in until the price hits zero!

[suetballs] 08/9/2022 07:44

Yep but a lot of that should be already priced in. I hope! These were £30 once so we have already fallen a long way. I’m in for better times and the long haul.
Suet

[unastubbs] 08/9/2022 07:30

the market will focus on this:

"Now expect adjusted operating profit and adjusted earnings per share to be lower than this financial year"

[suetballs] 08/9/2022 07:28

Trading update confirms a still well run outfit.
And we could indeed have a share buy back.
Suet

[unastubbs] 08/9/2022 05:07

Thanks for the links b2b, well the housebuilders might run them close for that particular title but i won't argue with your general point. yesterday's fall was precipitated by JPM research which was very bearish on the UK economy and retailers in general. hence big falls for Next, M&S, the supermarkets and ...ABF. So Primark is obviously a big component of the company but nevertheless it is just one of the five business segments. I'm happy with my recent purchase at £14.71 and will review in 2030!

[back2basics1] 07/9/2022 16:13

IMHO, ABF is now clearly the most Undervalued/Oversold share trading in the FTSE at present.

The Times:
Share tip: Trend is turning in favour of Primark owner ABF



IG:
“Associated British Foods - well positioned for the downturn”

[tlobs2] 07/9/2022 15:59

They'll be de-ramping so that one of their clients can buy in on the cheap ;-)

I am still of the opinion that now would be an ideal time for the Board to announce a share buy back scheme using some of the cash pile that they have sat there doing nothing.

[unastubbs] 07/9/2022 14:03

true, but they probably read the next one which will be made public a week today :)

[tlobs2] 07/9/2022 13:11

The muppets at Jefferies clearly haven't read the most recent trading update from ABF.

-- Group trading in line with expectations, outlook unchanged
Revenue increases at Food demonstrate ongoing price
-- actions to date
Recovery of Grocery margin remains on target for next
o year
o Strong trading at Sugar despite production disruption
at Illovo this quarter
o AB Agri and ABF Ingredients trading well in current
environment
Primark uplift in sales in the quarter, full year margin
-- in line with expectations
Primark to launch UK trial of Click & Collect service
-- on children's products
o up to 25 stores in the northwest
o wider product range offered to satisfy unfulfilled
demand
o builds on enhanced digital capability
o expected to drive higher footfall and incremental
sales in stores

[unastubbs] 07/9/2022 11:06

i'm in at 14.71. like the diversification here. long term hold for me.

[philanderer] 06/9/2022 10:25

Jefferies cuts AB Foods to 'hold' (buy) - price target 1,500 (2,000) pence

[m_kerr] 05/9/2022 20:00

things may fall further - though predicting short term market movements is impossible. you'll always get people saying it's got further to fall no matter how much it's fallen by. market could also rally by 20-30% before people get greedy again. look at the rally from Nov 20 - March 21 for how quickly people change from one extreme to another.

ABF is actually trading at a lower share price than Nov 20, despite having a higher net cash balance, and primark being fully open again. their rivals don't have a pile of cash on the balance sheet and steady cash generation from a branded foods business, nor a commodities business enjoying a cyclical upswing. and the potential US primark expansion is entirely ignored - potential upside you're not paying for at the moment.

there's bargains in the UK stock market that on a medium term view offer great risk adjusted returns. i'm certain this is one of them.

[essentialinvestor] 05/9/2022 12:43

rogue, multiples are compressing as mentioned and lots may be available lower down,
wider markets depending. It's difficult to be sure of much atm and increasing
lock downs in China perhaps underestimated. Appreciate the view as always.

[roguetraderuk] 05/9/2022 12:39

EI, if you go back to 08 and take a look at wmt, it actually took share and its share price did well during that year. it did give up ma little afterwards but as the gfc expanded wmt powered ahead in terms of mkt share and revs. its poss a stretch to compare abf to it but youve got the same mature position in the mkt where you are not getting 20-30% growth, but maybe single digits. the one thing that stops me going furtehr is the poor technical position its in. if they can manage to do a big reversal on the week and finish back abv 15 quid, id be interested. otherwise it could fall quite sharply here.

[fuji99] 05/9/2022 11:16

The downturn has already started a while ago. The only unknown is the extend of the deterioration especially if the Ukraine/Russia conflict is still on-going and out of the blue, China puts an embargo on Taiwan (holding 61% of the world semi conductor production - used almost everywhere) - or even invading it, that will be a second conflict between the 3 most powerful military powers in the world. The recessions we used to have were not linked to geopolitical issues. They were part of an economic cycle and resolve with time. Today we are in other dimension and IMO it is a bit difficult to extrapolate any future outcome from what happened before. As a result, I feel next Christmas will be one of the worst we had ever had as people will buy less and many retailers will go under the floor. This alone, will hurt the markets further. Then comes 2023 unknowns and possibly severe market corrections. A long bear market is shaping up.

[essentialinvestor] 05/9/2022 10:47

Primark took share during the GFC, all be it from a smaller base and with online shopping capturing a significantly lower over %
of clothing spend.

SP looks reasonableISH to me, however multiples are compressing across the market
atm, which may have been one of the SA author's points.

[unastubbs] 05/9/2022 10:21

Associated British Foods: Hold Your Horses

[m_kerr] 04/9/2022 15:58

if there is a downturn, i expect ABF to benefit. after all they have nearly £2bn in net cash on the balance sheet. combine that with predictable, steady cash flows from the food businesses and they'll be able to invest throughout the cycle.

the company is very under geared. in a rising interest rate environment that's a great place to be. the geographic diversification should also help soften the blow from the sterling depreciation.