Asian Citrus Share Discussion Threads

[wigwammer] 07/5/2015 14:27

I own achl, picking up the majority of shares during the last drop below 6p, and took some profits around 8p.If it drops to that level again I would likely add. If I didn't own now, I would buy. I don't think any of that is very confusing.Yes, they have trees. Yes, they make sales from juice. Anyone who has read the AR knows that. The interesting positive today is that they have confirmed that 18% is the rough number, that's 18% of one plantation, and the immediate cost is small at sub 1% of their cash. The likely impact on 12-18m sales was already known.The HK investors may react positively to the release.Will we see sub 6p again? Seems you can pretty much throw what you want at it at this valuation - the shares don't move much - which usually suggests a lot is already priced in.

[hereford29] 07/5/2015 13:58

and will I get my dividends this year?

[hereford29] 07/5/2015 13:58

SO ACHL IS A BUY, or not? im confused. do they have any orange trees left? what about the orange juice bottling, what happened to that? what about the cash?

[wigwammer] 07/5/2015 11:37

Sorry.. Cpx sell 1p. Achl buy 70p.That IS humour.Lots of love, ww

[wigwammer] 07/5/2015 11:34

Cpx. lolAchl. Check post 350.No ability, no humour.Zzzzzz

[envirovision] 07/5/2015 11:19

cpx is not worth 1p so certainly is not worth 4p and when it can no longer tap shareholders further it will go bust, and I called achl a sell at 70p fyi, hope that helps.

[wigwammer] 07/5/2015 10:22

Your sell rec @1p on cpx was about as good as your buy rec @70p on achl a few years back.You don't appear capable of independent thought.Hope that helps.

[wigwammer] 07/5/2015 10:02

Post 4170.That really is the kiss of death.Cpx. 1p. LOLOLOL

[envirovision] 07/5/2015 09:57

SORB interesting over view of just how easy it is to steal foreign investors monies with virtually no recourse what so ever.....

Further to the announcement of 22 April 2015, Mr Wang Yan Ting ("Mr. Wang"), the Company's CEO has been removed from office, both at the Board (plc) level and in respect of the operating subsidiary ("LVST") in China. Furthermore, Mr. Wang's role as Legal Representative in China has been terminated and he has been replaced by Mr. Cai Lun, the managing partner of Guolan, a Beijing law firm.

Since being replaced as the Company's Legal Representative for LVST in China and from the LVST board, Mr. Wang has declined to hand-over the Company's corporate seals (chops) and business licences, which he removed from the premises before he was dismissed. The local police were contacted, but deemed Mr. Wang's non-cooperation as a commercial matter and were therefore unwilling to assist.

As a result of Mr. Wang's non-cooperation, the bank accounts and the day-to-day operations of the Company still remain under the control of Mr. Wang. Furthermore, Mr. Wang has confirmed that he has transferred funds belonging to the Company which remain under his control and, to date, he has refused to return them. At 31 March 2015, management accounts showed total cash balances of approximately RMB 72 million (£7.7 million).

[envirovision] 07/5/2015 09:54

wigwammer I think this is a great investment and encourage you to fill your boots.

[wigwammer] 07/5/2015 09:49

Circa £1.2m extra costs... Wow, it's the biggest heist since bookham library was raided by local primary school kids.Are you the same envirovision that encouraged people to sell their cpx at 1p a few weeks back? That's one of the worst calls in advfn history, and you own it.

[cockerhoop] 07/5/2015 09:47

Anyone here following the latest Chinese Aim Fiasco that is SORB?

Today's missive



As they used to say in Hill Street Blues:

'Be careful out there'!

[envirovision] 07/5/2015 09:35

of course its all just a run of bad luck though, isn't it ? .....

[envirovision] 07/5/2015 09:34

old Chinese proverb those selling the spades make the money

can imagine Mr Chong Fu's connected pesticide supplier rubbing his hands with glee

[envirovision] 07/5/2015 09:32

There's a surprise additional cost then:

additional pesticides costs

lol


LOL

[varies] 25/4/2015 14:42

Hereford
I bought my first shares at 12p (120p before the scrip) and the share price did not look excessive even at 85p when all seemed to going well : good crops and good dividends. Growing oranges for the Chinese seemed to me (in my innocence)as safe and predictable a business as one could find and I have over many years done very well out of palm oil plantations.
The production cycle of an orange tree is predictable, barring a catastrophe, and ACHL has been exceptionally unlucky.
I remember as a young man having a large bet on a wonderful two year old called Double Jump who was winning his race easily when he collapsed a furlong from home having burst a blood vessel ! This is a rare occurrence in horse-racing and so are typhoons on the scale ACHL suffered from last year.
Even if HLB affected half the trees at Xinfeng rather than 18%, there would still still be a great many left and, of course, all the trees in the other two plantations. Given normal conditions there should be excellent harvests from 2017 onwards.
It may be, of course, that climate change will eliminate the production of oranges in China and, perhaps, Florida too. So would a few nuclear bombs but one needs a little hope to invest in anything.

[hereford29] 25/4/2015 12:24

It probably does wigwam, but I havent seen it and I don't know anyone who has. Polly peck was audited and validated for 10 years or so, from memory, the Cypriot fruit business but it turned out to have been a fraud did it not? If the impact of disease has been mitigated by intelligent planning and they have a strong balance sheet, why has the share price collapsed 95pc? Or was the business simply wildly over valued and the strength of the business massively overstated a few years ago? If it has good cash flow and little or no debt, then as long as it can maintain revenues, it will make profits, therefore it will resume dividend payments. Do you see this happening next year? Or do you think the latest infection will be found to have made this plantation no longer viable? A company whose business model is entirely at the mercy of climate swings and pest control is unlikely to be a going concern is it?

[wigwammer] 23/4/2015 10:26

Thank you for daring to concede the business probably exists, and that management have had a difficult job on their hands.Clearly the impact of disease has been mitigated by intelligent planning - they have three plantations, not one. They are vertically integrated - juices and fruit. They have a robust balance sheet.Hope that helps.

[hereford29] 22/4/2015 14:31

Still this is a rather worrying statement "Based on the initial sampling that has been undertaken, which indicates an infection rate of approximately 18% of the total population in Xinfeng Plantation, the Board wishes to make clear that the impact of HLB in Xinfeng Plantation will be significant, especially with regard to the 2015 winter harvest." - so in fact, approximately 18pc means that possibly the entire plantation could be wiped out. Again I imagine it was too costly or impossible to insure against the infection, as with the cyclones, consequently it is indeed a very high risk business for a small undiversified company to enter into. They do not appear to have any hedged trades either to cover commodity price swings, leaving them doubly vulnerable?

[hereford29] 22/4/2015 13:10

Thank you for that thoughtful insight Wigwammer, I dare say you are correct. It was established with some brave plans and high hopes, and through no fault of the management's and overseeing BOD has failed to deliver on the promises made. Now they have learned by the school of hard knocks, I am sure they will bounce back stronger, smarter and better. I have no doubt that in 25 years this will be the Asian "Cargill" (not Coke or whatever). So I will buy a lot more shares than I had for a lot less money than I previously spent, when I actually have any money that is......

[muffinhead] 21/4/2015 22:24

re gross profit margin

Oranges as an international commodity may have further to drop; not sure about China prices though. $/Yuan rate fixed so local farmers may have a problem with imports

Worth keeping an eye on maybe

[wigwammer] 21/4/2015 22:16

Well, who really knows rupe.. But...1) it don't add to the sum of knowledge to be the umpteenth billion person to shout "it's a fraud!"2) the valuation suggests the market is already well aware of the "it's a fraud!" allegation.3) after years of finding frauds and holding them to account, where is the evidence against achl?

[rupe1958] 21/4/2015 08:09

Wigwammer - great post. The company definitely got much too valuable back in 2010. At 80p a share it must have been worth approx £1bn.. I don't know what the sustainable gross margin is. Perhaps 25%. That should still mean good profits and dividends if they can just get all 3 plantations producing well.

[roundup] 18/4/2015 11:53

Back in Oct. 2012 I took a small position in this company. Within three weeks after some misgivings over management and general risks, I sold @ 35p showing a small profit.Recently, after what I thought was a good outlook and a reasonable share price, I again took a position, I have exited again due to several reasons which I feel would endanger my investment, namely:- 1. Danger of extreme weather conditions which would harm the plantations. 2. Danger of disease. 3. Chinese management which in my experience do not consider shareholder value. This time I have lost some of my capital, I don't think I would ever again be tempted into a Chinese company.