Asian Citrus Share Discussion Threads

[mirako] 30/1/2015 12:24

Cryogenic usually refers to materials at temperatures lower than minus 150 celsius. Quite some rain they have in southern China.

[rupe1958] 30/1/2015 08:29

I think this is pretty much in line with what we were expecting. There are still problems, but the business is stabilising.

Xinfeng Winter Orange production down approx. 10% from target is a surprise though.
Also a warning that the plantation will continue to cost money to put right.

Concentrates business down 17.1% is not that surprising, given the disruption caused by the typhoon. Hopefully this will get back to normal volumes in H2. The continued pressure on margins in this business is more worrying. That is all to do with spot prices for concentrates.

There's clearly going to be quite a large loss for the period and for the whole of this year. We have a 25% drop in orange production and a 17% drop in concentrates. So minimum 20% drop in H1 turnover to about 600m RMB. We'll know what the effect is on the bottom line in late Feb when we get the half year results.

[rupe1958] 26/1/2015 08:53

The Stig - that kind of language is just so inappropriate for a message board like this one. Try to keep it civil mate.

We might get a trading update this week.

[wigwammer] 24/1/2015 00:15

"Another China con"A China con with a 15 year history as a listed co.Anything to back that up?

[cafe tabou] 22/1/2015 17:28

I bought 30K the other day at 0.0822 to test out the water. Going to wait and see what happens before getting another 70K.

[rainmaker] 21/1/2015 22:05

MMs have lowered the bid after a 100k purchase at 8.25p but otherwise there's been no other trades of reasonable size.

regards

[rainmaker] 21/1/2015 22:02

Thanks very much for your thoughts,MH. I believe that IGM Financial now have taken their stake to over 7%-see recent RNS. Its rarely that I bother watching a Company's share price action as I'm far more interested in a Company's underlying fundamentals,its markets and long term prospects but I just couldn't help but notice how the share price in Hong Kong keeps finding support at lower levels and rebounding. Yesterday the same thing happened and we actually closed higher.

I really hope that we don't get some corporate action here.Ok so we'd receive a large short term gain but IMHO we'd be severely disadvantaged by missing the opportunity of substantially much higher longer terms gains. I'm relishing the time when, helped by the addition of a third plantation at Hunan, we will be deriving maximum economic benefit from our investments as production, profits and dividends,return to typical levels seen over the last 10 years, whenever that may be.Remember that the Company is committed to paying out 30% of their net core profits as dividends so once earnings return I wouldn't expect a low rating.I believe in 2011,when the shares hit 90p or thereabouts, the ACHL were on a mid to high teens multiple but I'll check further.

DYOR, AIMHO

regards

[muffinhead] 21/1/2015 18:39

hi R

The disclosure of interests in ACHL is interesting

Various trustees of the Desmarais family seem to be building up holdings

IGM Financial Inc and Power financial Inc have connections with the Desmarais family

Gelco enterprises is also based in Canada like the above holders but maybe a shell company


Nordex Inc is a strange one to be buying ACHL shares since it is an engineering company...company just north of New York

60% of ACHL is public float
IGM Financial Inc has a 6% holding according to ACHL website (updated 26/9/14)


Desmarais was ranked by Forbes as the fourth wealthiest person in Canada and 235th in the world


The Desmarais and possibly related parties have been buying from the HK$ 1.9 level down

[rainmaker] 14/1/2015 08:58

Maybe sentiment towards ACHL in Hong Kong where the Company have a dual listing is changing, as the price was in negative territory a couple of times in the first few hours of trading but actually finished up 2.02% on volume of 3.17mln.

regards

[rupe1958] 13/1/2015 11:05

It's good to see that IGM Financial are still mopping up shares here and now hold 7%.
IGM is a big Canadian institutional investor.
From the company's website:
IGM Financial Inc. is one of Canada's premier personal financial services companies, and one of the country's largest managers and distributors of mutual funds and other managed asset products, with approximately $142 billion in total assets under management. Its activities are carried out principally through Investors Group Inc., Mackenzie Financial Corporation and Investment Planning Counsel Inc. IGM Financial Inc. is a member of the Power Financial Corporation group of companies.

[ballachar] 12/1/2015 11:05

Piedro etc. make interesting points questioning "Management Quality". Whether it is a question of "quality" or just a lack of adequate "Communication Skills" is difficult to tell. One example for me was the lack of sensible explanation for replanting the whole major "Banana Plantation" the year after the whole crop was wiped out by a "hurricane". Was anything done differently in the replanting.? Do they have any insurance against these troubles ( canker, hurricanes , greening blight etc.etc.? With the shares down from 80 to 8 some sort of explanation of the board's "thinking" or "plans to do things better" in the future might not go amiss.We know little of the gradual disappearance of the substantial cash asset.

[rupe1958] 09/1/2015 13:02

Piedro - interesting post. Perhaps lower orange production will raise prices. And perhaps all these problems with growing oranges will take out some of the smaller producers, leaving the big players like ACHL in a stronger position.

I'm puzzled that they talk about the 'excellent growing year' in Guangxi province. This is where Hepu is, and is the area that was hit by the typhoon in July! Perhaps the typhoon only went through part of Guangxi.

Xinfeng plantation (37km2, 1.6m trees) is in Jiangxi province. It produces only winter oranges. Production in the current financial year is expected to be 113,600 tonnes, down from 123,228 tonnes in the previous year. Hopefully this will be the low point of Xinfeng production. The big unknown at Xinfeng is whether the citrus canker outbreak there is now under control.

[mrx9000] 08/1/2015 15:17

Oak Tree: Lol, sorry Zandook, mistook your pasted quote!

[piedro] 08/1/2015 15:10

zandook,

Sorry to have spooked your thread
I can remove that article if it offends
Even the VAL fans have left.

[piedro] 07/1/2015 19:43

ibid ...

Production:
Oranges
China’s orange production is forecast at 6.9 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2014/15 (November-October), down 10 percent from the previous year, due largely to a sharp decline of production in Jiangxi province, the largest orange producing region in China. A devastating citrus greening disease continues to spread in the Ganzhou region of Jiangxi. As a result, orange production in Jiangxi is projected to drop by 20 percent compared with last year.

Guangxi and Hunan provinces on are also expecting a smaller production of oranges though not as a result of greening but a normal drop in production following an excellent growing year in 2013/14. In other producing provinces, including Sichuan, Chongqing and Hubei, orange production is likely to gain marginally under normal growing conditions.

Orange acreage is forecast to decrease slightly to 780,000 hectares in marketing year 2014/15. Orange area continues to decline primarily because of removal of diseased trees in the major producing region of Ganzhou. It is reported that 15 percent of the orange trees in Ganzhou have been destroyed. The impact of greening on Ganzhou’s local agriculture has been severe as citrus is the dominant crop and main source of income for Ganzhou farmers. However, industry sources note that the outbreak of citrus greening may create an opportunity for restructuring of the citrus industry by consolidating production.

[piedro] 07/1/2015 19:30

FWIW,

Date: 12/30/2014
GAIN Report Number: CH14064
China - Peoples Republic of China Citrus Annual 2014
Approved By: Phil Shull
Prepared By: Chris Frederick, Wang Tong, and Wu Bugang
Report Highlights:
Post forecasts China’s orange production to decrease by 10 percent to 6.9 MMT in MY 2014/15, because of continuing impact from citrus greening disease in the main growing region of in Jiangxi.
Tangerine/Mandarin production is expected to increase to 18.5 MMT in MY 2014/15. China’s citrus imports will continue to grow based on strong demand for counter seasonal fruit from the southern hemisphere. The United States, with a market share of approximately 13 percent, is the third largest supplier of citrus to China behind South Africa and Australia. .... ....


DYOR.

[the oak tree] 06/1/2015 17:22

mrx9000, thats what zandook is saying, he's simple copied in a post from Hosede!
Hence the Italics.
Its like a comedy of errors here!

[mrx9000] 06/1/2015 09:44

zangdook: rainmaker is not a company appointee, do your research!

[zangdook] 06/1/2015 06:42

I assume your'e a company appointee Rainmaker dedicated to repairing the damage.

We can do without that sort of ad hominem stuff, thanks.

[hosede] 05/1/2015 21:19

OK something had to go up today as investors piled out of oilers and most other things. After a rise like that a fallback is inevitable - will it be a partial retracement or a fall to a new low? Overall I think the market is going to be hugely volatile in the coming months.
The resurgence of Maoism is(IMO) a much more serious threat long term. With Russia doing much the same it's presaging a return to the 60s

[the oak tree] 05/1/2015 15:39

Agree excellent discussion from both sides.

Hosede - Rainmaker is not a company insider IMHO. He's a genuine investor. Look at his history to confirm he talks about a variety of shares and indeed has his own thread discusing Value shares which is quite popular.

IMO the recent rise is just investors realocating assets coming into a new year and not company information driven.....i.e. I'm not going to chase stock as it may well retrace.

But I take the point that perhaps we've seen the bottom. And yes agree all we need is a stable RNS to signal a rise but my problem is I haven't a clue on whether we'll get that.......why couldn't it be more bad news??
I'll wait for the time being......

[piedro] 05/1/2015 13:35

Excellent arguments from both sides.
Rainmaker started buying at 14p I believe, whereas, the contras have been keeping their powder dry.

The question of when to buy seems to be the all important.

I have been and am of the view that there has been incompetence on the part of the management. In a plantation that is not something that can be resolved in a few days. I do not feel that the reports of crop damage have been adequate or of the level which could be expected of a technologically advanced organisation, and get the feeling that this company is run from the office and that outside things are more haphazard - AIMHO.

Thus, I have been riding this down and awaiting an announcement of managerial changes before making any substantial investment.

[hosede] 05/1/2015 13:13

Well Rainmaker you suddenly appeared on this board when everything was dire - since when you've been ramping continually and gainsaying anything negative said by anyone else.
On a more serious note this article is truly scary.

If true then the outlook for Hong Kong is very bleak, and our company is in serious danger of eventually being nationalised (confiscated) by the state.
So we better enjoy it's sudden New Year resurgence while we can.

[rupe1958] 05/1/2015 10:29

Jeffian - if we knew the next RNS would be reassuring then we'd already be above the 200-day moving average.