Asiamet Resources Share Discussion Threads

[mr roper] 14/9/2018 15:31

1m sell. Someone desperate

[charles clore] 14/9/2018 14:47

MT - I'm afraid you are right. My son and his peers stand very little chance of owning their own property in the face of this prospect.

[shieldbug] 14/9/2018 11:52

Stunning chart MT. I do have a concern that QE has changed the ground rules of all this; that somehow it will maintain assets elevated levels for much longer than expected. Then again inflated asset values may of course ultimately mean there is less support in the event of a crash. Similarly US company buy backs resulting in increased (and lower quality) corporate debt may also exaggerate the crash when in comes. We are in uncharted territory.

[jailbird] 14/9/2018 10:04

I need a chart to get my head around that :-)

hxxps://www.macrotrends.net/1476/copper-prices-historical-chart-data

[mount teide] 14/9/2018 09:56

Last Autumn, in relation to the S&P500 the GSCI commodity index(heavily weighted to oil and copper) only came off trading at its lowest level in 50 years.

With the first commodity price correction since bottomming in H1/2016, it still sits some 120% below its long-term median of 4.1. Following the highly reliable notion of mean reversion, it continues to signal an attractive investment opportunity over the next 3-5 years.




The previous bottom in 1999/2000 was just before a major main market crash, which saw the FTSE drop circa 50% and still some 7 years later remain in correction territory some 20% down.

What did copper and oil do during this 6/7 year period? Go up 498% and 275% respectively as a result of demand continuing at 2-3% a year, while the effects of a massive half decade collapse in production development investment between 1994 -1999 as a result of decade low copper and oil prices came home to roost.

The identical fundamentals are currently playing out: 2013-2018 saw a collapse in copper and oil industry investment which has barely moved up off its 2017 bottom some 65% down from the 2013 peak. H1/2016 saw copper and oil prices finally bottom after falling for 6-8 years to decade lows.

Demand has continued to roll on at an average of 2-2.5% a year - much like it has for the last 50 years, apart from a 6 month lull during the global financial crash.

Future demand for oil and copper is being driven overwhelmingly by the circa 88%, and rising rapidly, of the worlds population not living in Europe or the USA, who don't have massive mortgages on highly overpriced property, credit cards maxed out and expensive car loans.

Although oil and copper consumption has dropped significantly in the West over the last 20 years it has been overwhelmed by the increase in demand from the high population Nations - China, India and in SE Asia - which continue to experience massive growth.

Oil consumption has dropped in the USA, Europe and UK during the last 20 years - in the UK it has fallen by circa 10% while in China it has gone up 210% to nearly 13m bopd, some 14 times the total daily output of the North Sea. In fact, China now has to find/import an additional 80% of the entire North Sea output every year just to meet its annual growth in consumption - it therefore comes as no surprise China has decided to rapidly accelerate the pace of electrification from renewables across its transport infrastructure.

Moral of the story? As the above chart shows, Oil and Copper sector investors have a very long history of enjoying main equity market crashes!


AIMHO/DYOR

[mr roper] 14/9/2018 09:40

Someone's in for a 250k buy.

[jailbird] 14/9/2018 09:19

ok Mr R..Lets hope so..but I am not expecting this ..just me

[mr roper] 14/9/2018 09:09

They'll be producing h2,2020. They're not going 1 km down. It's a few metres at bkm

[jailbird] 14/9/2018 09:05

"Production in 2020" - very optimistic buildit1 !..add another 12-18 months

Never go by Co. timelines or targets..rarely met..sometimes just of their control

[return_of_the_apeman] 14/9/2018 09:04

Exactly Buildit

And this should be multiples of it's share price based on peers and the size of the asset, it should catch up at some point

[knokke1] 14/9/2018 08:43

10.50 vs. 10.80 (x2), 11.00 (x5). BEGO 10/15/10.80; LCAP 9.80/11.00. ARRR looks like a new MM (I haven't looked in for two days)

[buildit1] 14/9/2018 08:41

Production in 2020 is not soon? Given mines take 30 years in some cases to go discovery to mine I would say that is very close in mining land. Yes a recession would impact on markets but a supply deficit can more than offset (and another recession would exacerbate further). Fact is ARS is the wrong price even allowing for lower metal prices driven by a recession. Stock markets lull for 1-2 years and then bounce back. To extract real value from ARS we need to let the story build over time. Your early bid at 30p or TM and team delivering the $1bn company they have been consistently saying this can become over a further 3-5 years. I for one am very happy to wait and yield a much greater return.

[charles clore] 14/9/2018 08:32

The chart is going off the chart this morning!

[jailbird] 14/9/2018 08:31

Apologies for grammar On the tube

[jailbird] 14/9/2018 08:26

MT is too bullish for me
Please, he will be the first to say so , even with his extensive knowledge , he does not always get it right .

I need a balanced debate. Production is not happening anytime soon .
That is thinking about this

Things change in the future ... we cannot continue on the boom
World will and gas up and down cyclical periods

[buildit1] 14/9/2018 08:18

Nonsense. Read MTs posts

[vivgav] 14/9/2018 08:10

OMI profits/sellers buying in here ???

[jailbird] 14/9/2018 08:07

We need metals to go up by 30% by this time next year I am not bullish on global economy post 2019 and we know everything gets dragged down when that happens We need to think what is preferred as a shareholder .. bought by another major or be a producer I take the former with uncertainty ahead

[gymratt] 14/9/2018 08:07

Can't buy on-line. Negotiated Order only(Ping!).

[mr roper] 13/9/2018 22:33

No copper smelter required, Charles.

[charles clore] 13/9/2018 20:04

With all those projects and copper it sounds like ARS need to factor in a smelter!

[buildit1] 13/9/2018 19:18

But BKM cash or partner buy-in cash can also accelerate the 33 other prospects across KSK in particular Baroi AND not forgetting BKZ which has a resource already! BKZ and BKM at depth?! So much optionality but BKM BFS and financing the catalyst to start to realise it in the share price.