Asiamet Resources Share Discussion Threads

[uapatel] 23/4/2018 07:56

Thanks Mrpiggy.

[uapatel] 23/4/2018 06:43

HG,

Thanks for your reasoned view on the share price potential, sounds fantastic and plausible. I assume you are basing this on/ around today's Copper price. Be interested to hear what you or others think we might see copper going to in 12-15 months and how this may impact on the share price projections.

Should add I'd be very happy indeed if the share price is in the 40p zone in 12-15months!

[monttim] 23/4/2018 04:46

HG, I think I can safely call you TOP GEAR from now on. Brilliant write up, astute observations and a quality estimate of our future market cap including a conservative and sensible dilution factor.
I was fortunate eneogh to go through the heady days of Oxiana from 6 cents, The mighty Ox, with many of these same ASIAMET guys on board, but with the mighty ASIAMET we have the addition of Peter Bird who appears world class. I agree a share price of 35 - 45p by June 2019 if all the ducks keep lined up. All the best.

[highly geared] 22/4/2018 20:39

No problem. This remains a longer term investment but on a 2-3 year view, I think we’ll be multiples of the current share price.For me, the material news will be an updated Jorc and scoping study for Beutong H1 2019. Logically, with at least 6x the resource of BKM, the NPV will be north of $1.2 billion....assuming the market values 20% only of the NPV , $240 million or approaching £200 million provides for c22p/ share value.
Assuming BKM moves, post finance, toward $200 milllion NPV and deduct some for dilution, allow say £120 milllion or 14p. Add in bits for BKZ JORC and drilling around KSK, say 4p and a sum of parts value of c.40p is logical within the next 12-15 months v 11.75p current. I’ll take nearly 400% upside within 12 months thank you...

It’s possible that successful finance and mine build at BKM willl enable the market to value Beutong at a greater % of the scoping NPV; so 40p could be conservative with 50p optimistic.

[mount teide] 22/4/2018 19:32

HG - many thanks for posting a write up of your conversation with Peter Bird - very interesting and much appreciated.

[charles clore] 22/4/2018 18:17

HG - many thanks indeed for sharing that.

[mr roper] 22/4/2018 18:06

Thanks for the write up, HG. Much appreciated

[uapatel] 22/4/2018 16:46

HG,

Thanks for taking time to write up your feedback, very interesting indeed.

Good luck all holders

[highly geared] 22/4/2018 15:16

Builit1 - spot on, that’s exactly the point. If banks are going to consider lending you $ billions, having done it on a smaller scale provides great credibility in the eyes of lenders...

[buildit1] 22/4/2018 14:56

Thanks HG for a great write up. The key to BKM in production quickly is that will re-rate the rest of the portfolio as they prove it up. As HG mentions in his write up once we have a producing asset and are seen as credible developers it puts a higher multiple on BKZ, Beutong and the rest as they get drilled.

[kjawoogie] 22/4/2018 13:08

Fantastic write up HG. Huge amount to be excited about here and also a very focussed business plan being exercised right back from Tony taking the view to concentrate on BKM and get a project to production at a time when nobody was really backing exploration and that focus rather than drilling every target is now really playing out in our favour. I made a point of asking why they started at BKM, the answer was not because it had better prospects than the other KSK targets but because it's access was easier. Mouth watering!

[jc2706] 22/4/2018 13:03

Great write up HG. Thanks for that.

[walter walcarpets] 22/4/2018 12:47

HG - great summary. Much appreciated for taking the time to assimilate.

walt

[kjawoogie] 22/4/2018 12:37

Peter didn't mention this but he said at the presentation in Birmingham often you see the mine life double. My expectations based on Tony's comments will be at least another 3-4 years subject to that increasing if the porphyry at depth is good grade and depending on the size of it.

[highly geared] 22/4/2018 12:17

Mr P. Didn't ask the question but it wouldn't surprise me at 12-15 years with the contribution included from BKZ.

[mrpiggy] 22/4/2018 12:07

Just curious HG but did they have a hunch as to how long the mine life would be at BKM or didn't you pose the question?From what you have posted it sounds like we may be mining for decades at Beutong!

[mrpiggy] 22/4/2018 11:47

Very comprehensive report HG, well done..... very informative!

[highly geared] 22/4/2018 11:40

INTRODUCTION

I had the pleasure of talking with Peter Bird for about 20 minutes at the UK Investor show yesterday. I also attended the Asiamet break out room presentation. Peter came across as a really professional and immensely likeable person. I also spoke briefly with Sasha, their PR guy. I prepared some notes after the above and provide them here to share on the Board.

Tony and Peter are adopting a strategic and systematic approach. Essentially the asset portfolio is of such scale, they could drill for the next 20 years! The issue is how to deal with this and this was seen by the previous owners Freeport where they spent several years and $30 million ‘scattergun217; drilling, albeit identifying Beutong!

So, a systematic and proven approach wrapped up in a 10 year vision/plan.
They want to ‘walk before they can run’; develop BKM as a mine first (to demonstrate to the market, project development/execution capability) whilst bringing the other assets systematically up the value curve. BKM in production will provide revenues to fund broader asset development.

BKM

They know there is deeper copper at BKM/BKZ and a possible porphyry but the plan has been to develop a manageable project to start with that will be expanded as mining progresses using cash flow.

BKM finance is being discussed but won’t be published parallel to the BFS. The complexity around structuring the best deal for shareholders means a blend of giving some of the project to a partner, with debt and equity mix to minimise dilution but no take on too much debt. The paperwork and agreements involved were cited as involved and tedious (solicitors/banks etc.) and mean finance completion will likely occur Q4. Essentially, they are likely to give some of BKM away at a project level to optimise debt burden/minimise dilution.

Peter stated around 15 months for mine build. Rainfall isn’t an issue and a large part of the BFS incorporates hydrology designs for run off ponds. First production therefore c. Q1/2 2020.

The BFS will likely have similar metrics to the PEA. It was stressed production cost at $1.50 v $3.25 sale price is a very good business metric! Any Cu price increase goes straight to the bottom line.

BKM infra –structure is excellent and beneficial to project economics.
BKM, whilst the most advance, will be a ‘sideshow̵7; to Beutong.


KSK

The ‘heat map’ around BKM /BKS provides a ‘tenor’ for further large copper deposits…. Look at the colours and what does it tell you……


BEUTONG
The remainder of 2018 is about drilling to:

- Grow the resource
- Improve JORC certainty on the inferred element of the current resource
- Define expansion potential
- Establish porphyry and Skarn linkages; drill deeper to establish extent (deepest drilling to date c 500m , go deeper to 600-700m + laterally)
- Enable metallurgical test work to establish whether the upper strata is amenable to heap, leach.

Following this, a scoping study is likely H1 2019.

Due to the scale of Beutong (6-8x BKM), a BFS will take 3 years on the full project but if upper strata is heap leachable, they may consider a smaller scale starter mine on similar lines to BKM.

Potential after scoping study to introduce a major JV partner to develop out to mine start 2024-25 (my thoughts, not Peter’s).

Strategy to go to 80% ownership and demonstrate the size and mine ability of Beutong to optimise development options/value.

Beutong infra-structure is, by luck, excellent – this will be significantly beneficial to project economics.

GENERAL

Progress drilling /resource definition to establish further adjacent or satellite mine development potential but prioritize BKM/BKZ/Beutong.

They have lots to do at KSK/Baroi in the next 2 years that will run parallel to the above so expect constant news flow.

Peter re-emphasised a systematic long term approach with the BOD and shareholder interests aligned. The BOD see this as a medium-long term systematic development of a world class asset portfolio; noting that ARS Cu grades are typically 50% better than industry average – TOP TIER ASSETS/GRADES.

They recognise that at c. £100 million market cap, they are seen as a micro player in the mining space; approach is to build the company to mid-tier status over time.

MACRO PICTURE

Peter emphasised in the presentation and on the mining discussion panel that the world has seen a 2% compounded demand increase for copper since the 1950’s. This means 400,000 tonnes per annum has to be added to the supply side to keep up with demand. The supply side is inelastic due to the time required (8-10 years) to bring a new mine into production. Due to the commodities down turn 2010-16, there has been very little sector investment and very few copper mines are coming on line in the next 2 years. Copper prices are likely to remain strong for the foreseeable future (next 2-3 years).

Assets, timing, done it before……

AIMHO, DYOR, NAI

[horneblower] 20/4/2018 20:36

Make a nice, definitive list with target dates and i'll put it in the header. Perhaps a new, scrolling window under the header, "Events to look forward to"?

[mattjwhity] 20/4/2018 19:47

Could I add ... some exciting Silver Mountain 'first look' assays and granting of the forestry permit for the highly regarded Baroi district to you're list ... ;)

[mattjwhity] 20/4/2018 19:34

Lol wasn't aimed at you TM. More, the recent new posters. You're posts are quality.As I said, just my opinion.

[arf dysg] 20/4/2018 16:48

El fin de semana es ahora !!
Or, in French, le weekend est arrive!

[cf456] 20/4/2018 16:26

Strong finish by the looks of it. Bodes well for a move up next week.