Asiamet Resources Share Discussion Threads

[snickerdog] 23/1/2018 08:36

Daft time to sell IMO

[hawks11] 23/1/2018 08:24

There was a flurry of Tweets about ARS that caught my eye a few minutes ago until I saw they were linked to old posts. It's a matter of time. I hope they are having better weather that we are to help them get around that terrain.

[mr roper] 22/1/2018 21:36

Would think that some news will start to trickle through shortly

Bkm feasibility
- long stem met tests
- geo drilling
- bfs in q2

Bkz
- remaining delineation drills
- Jorc resource in q2

Beutong
- drill pad preparation for the upcoming drills
- take up off the 60% ownership

[cyberbub] 22/1/2018 17:05

Why do you say that CC?

[charles clore] 22/1/2018 16:33

Metals commodity stocks are littered with distressed sellers at the moment and imho it will get worse before it gets better

[mr roper] 22/1/2018 16:10

Looks to me to be about to start forming a base. Expect it to jiggle about between here and 10.5p for a while before the next big leg up.

[cyberbub] 22/1/2018 15:43

479k at 8.50p has hammered the share price this time.

[calabrian] 22/1/2018 13:31

I'm sure it's just another 'distressed' seller. Not MM manipulation or tree shake this time. :)

[amaretto] 22/1/2018 10:11

A few sells at bonkers levels today - my guess margin calls. I think investors expected it to pull away from here and for increased leverage to be fairly safe. This is AIM so you can never count on that. Once they've deleveraged sufficiently we'll pull away again.

[horneblower] 21/1/2018 20:25

kaos3, Hi there.

Indeed, this is mining and it is quite possible to lose almost everything!

ARS is a little different to AAAM in quite a few ways. Perhaps the most telling is that the directors of AAAM milked the company for as much as they could get away with even before they had sold a single ounce of metal.

[mount teide] 21/1/2018 19:19

adoring - difficult to disagree with any of that - however, the Copper and Zinc market fundamentals are pointing strongly to a period of increased M&A activity - as a consequence management need to be alert to the increasing risk of an opportunistic bid.

When CAML recently took over the low operating cost SASA mine(Europe's largest Zinc/Lead producer) the owner had only acquired it barely 12 months previously for $200m. Yet CAML paid $402m for SASA and thought they got a good deal. Hindsight has shown they probably have because the agreed valuation was based on the 2016 accounts when the Zinc price was coming off a 6 year low - it is now at a 10 year high.

[adorling] 21/1/2018 18:57

Over the past 2 years ARS have consistently exceeded all expectations in respect of RNS announcements. This is an unequalled record on AIM from what I can see. For those who have just 12-24 months investor patience I am very confident we will at least 5-bag from here just on development progress and in becoming a copper producer in a “perfect storm” market and possibly a 10-bag with a take out bid (probably Chinese). If you can build at least a million share holding then there is a real possibility of becoming seriously wealthy by just waiting.

[mount teide] 21/1/2018 18:50

HG - indeed - our thinking is along similar lines.

After watching the Baltic Dry Index, Copper and Zinc markets bottom together in the same few months during 2016, pleased I went heavily overweight industrial metals and oil last spring/summer after the BDI, Copper and Zinc prices started to move upward in lockstep into H1/2017.

As we know the Copper and Zinc market fundamentals went on to strengthen considerably in H2/2017 and are now giving management the strongest possible signal to crack on, as circumstances are conspiring (deficits and decade low stock levels) in conjunction with the strong rising price uptrend to prove transformational for ARS and its shareholders in 2018.

[kaos3] 21/1/2018 18:31

horn - we were both in AAAM. similar good story outcome was very bad. Why here AAAM takeout on the cheap can not happen - what was the lesson - what should I look at? (Da Silva was the "gangster" if I remember correctly)

I am lost about the lesson from AAAM that could prevent me sink into a hole - here too

[aim0raider] 21/1/2018 18:02

Don't forget about Baroi. There seems to be something special about this, as often mentioned by SH.

[highly geared] 21/1/2018 16:37

MT, based on what we already know ( Beutong Jorc, BKM PEA and BKZ drilling) by the end of 2018 , we should see an overall NPV of c. $1.5 billion for what is on the development pipeline with BKM at mine development stage.
I think any realistic offer has to leave something in it for the acquirer but recognise the 10-20 year value of supply deficits + something for the potential of the wider KSK District.
Realistically, I think the board will have to accept £500-750 million or an undiluted share price somewhere between 55p-80p.
As you say , we need them to prove up as much as possible quickly so we’re a sitting duck for a major by the end of 2018. If they need to place another £5 million to do this, fine by me...
Interesting that the sage financiers of the world are saying commodities is the play for 2018.... timing, assets, management.....

[mount teide] 21/1/2018 11:41

If management push on hard this year operationally, they should be in a position by year end where we have a JORC for BKZ, a BFS NPV for BKM, a PEA NPV for Beutong, and confirmation as to whether the underlying Copper mineralisation at BKZ has continuity to BKM

With Copper and Zinc in deficit and forecast to remain so for years, LME warehouse stocks at decade lows, and say a H2/2018 spot copper price in the $3.25/lb - $3.75/lb range and a Zinc spot price(currently at a decade high) in the $1.50 - $1.75/lb range - only an offer that is likely to put a large smile on most shareholders faces would likely be successful.

The market fundamentals now compared to 2008 when Copper and Zinc prices were last at/near decade highs could not be more different. In 2008 both metals were in surplus and the LME warehouse stock inventories were at multi year highs while now they're at decade lows and in deficit - totally different price driver fundamentals which is likely to lead to an acceleration in M&A activity to take advantage of the upward pressure this is likely to continue exerting on metal pricing over the next few years.

Glencore's market size and huge shut-in production is enabling it to exert control over the Copper and Zinc markets by operating as a swing trader, similar to the role the Saudi's had for decades in the oil market, by using their shut in production to not only support but push up prices.

CEO Ivan Glasenberg indirectly made this point in a recent presentation to the City - when he strongly emphasised to analysts that due to the long industrial metals market recession, new Copper and Zinc projects coming on stream over the next few years are now at a lower level than before the Chinese infrastructure boom, yet global supply is currently in deficit and warehouse stocks at decade lows. (ie now you join the dots together as to what this means for a company with huge shut-in globally material production)

Ivan clearly sees a 2/3 year market window of opportunity to commercial exploit after the brutal 8 year recession in the sector saw Glencore's valuation drop 85%, its dividend suspended and shareholders diluted by a huge cash raise to strengthen the balance sheet. After shutting in a number of mines with globally material production as many others went bust, he has played a major role in driving up prices and turning around the fortunes of the survivors - as he said regarding the remarkable recent improvement in Glencore's financial performance, "what a difference a year of rising prices make!"

[horneblower] 21/1/2018 10:31

On the assumption that Manini and his crew will likely drive the shareprice north of £1.50 in the next three years, yes, I would accept a bid now around 50p...reluctantly.
But I think that is highly unlikely at this early stage. In a year's time an acceptable bid price might be 80P.

[markth126] 21/1/2018 08:19

Presumably you'd be happy with a bid though as surely that will be at a massive premium to where we are today

[horneblower] 20/1/2018 22:17

Yes, an anuual 150 inches of rain (12.5 feet or 3.8 meters) is huge.
Presumably the main effect is on transport (road building and maintenance).
A not insignificant cost.

[mount teide] 20/1/2018 20:12

Some thoughts - if we consider,

The industry is entering the third year of recovery in the commodity cycle
The Copper and Zinc market is already in or very close to entering years of deficit
LME Copper, Zinc and Lead warehouse stocks are at decade lows
Major scale Copper projects scheduled to come on stream over the next 3-5 years are less than before the start of the Chinese driven commodity boom

I am increasingly of the view that its unlikely I will be a ARS shareholder when first mining is likely carried out at BKM in 2020 (any earlier is probably unrealistic not least because of mine construction constraints imposed by operating in a location with 150 to 200 inches of rainfall per annum).

Not through selling out - but as a result of one of the large mining groups making a successful offer for the Company post BKM BFS during H2/2018-H1/2019.

This is why I believe it would be money well spent for the management to fast track the further evaluation of Beutong, BKZ Polymetallic prospect and 'continuity' of the underlying high grade Copper mineralisation with BKM, to ensure opportunistic offers are forced to include the fullest consideration for these additional and potentially highly valuable assets.

Would welcome views.

[leontitcombe] 20/1/2018 18:24

I was merely passing on a message read from an asiamet message board posted by a pr to the company. I'm not saying it was 100% factual but I have no reason thus far to disbelieve the said person. Also that person could very possibly be sat on 100-400% gains it does not mean he is not selling for other reasons than to just take profit.

[jfacwc] 20/1/2018 17:12

thanks for the replies, Charles and Horneblower.It seems the age old story of 'know all' software developers who reckon they know more than users. Happens so often. Hope advfn can things soon.

[horneblower] 20/1/2018 16:31

jfacwc,
I do hope that it's not my tidying that's prevented your seeing the header.
As Charles says, advfn have made changes to their apps which may be something to do with their current obsession with PlusOneCoin, that has made things worse in some areas.
There is a useful thread where you can inform advfn of your problems at...