Asiamet Resources Share Discussion Threads

[dorset64] 17/11/2017 09:23

HB, cheers for the earlier reply fella.

[ianbag] 17/11/2017 09:09

Lively this morning is it not?

[horneblower] 17/11/2017 09:02

The chart will still be bullish, and I will be happy if we close above 9.25p today.
My feeling is that we may have to wait until next week for the fireworks to begin proper.

[cyberbub] 17/11/2017 08:58

If the Chinese are so desperate for copper, and given the location of ARS, I can't see them sitting by and watching anyone else develop the assets. They know also that while Indonesia might play hardball with a US or Aussie corporation, politically they would not obstruct the Chinese. So they will just move in and take it over lock stock and barrel IMO, rather than get involved in fundraising rounds etc. The only question is when and at what price. Again I very much doubt it will be below 30p, more likely up to 40-50p.NAI

[amaretto] 17/11/2017 08:57

Reckon the real action will happen in the last 30 minutes today. If I was going to take a stake today, I'd get in early before proper FOMO kicks in.

Still going for my 11.5p target today.

[amaretto] 17/11/2017 08:56

HG, my biggest fear is we're taken out either next year or in 2019 before the price of copper really starts to head north as indicated.

Sure we'll make a ton of cash if an early takeout happens but if that happens in five years in 2022, the sums could be life-changing.

[adorling] 17/11/2017 08:55

Mr Piggy - thanks for the clarification. I had assumed if it is connected then BKM is one structure? I see the MM are making fat profits again already today!

[highly geared] 17/11/2017 08:29

Recent articles point to copper at anywhere between $5-8/lb through 2020-30 as the world wide supply deficit v demand driven by EV’s etc. cause copper to rise to reflect supply/ demand fundamentals. This is why the scale and timing of Asiamet’s assets are critical for us and that patience should reap huge rewards if you can stick around to 2020.

[pyglet] 17/11/2017 08:22

Thanks adorling

[horneblower] 17/11/2017 08:20

Lots of very good points being made here. Many thanks to multiple contributors.

There was an interesting analysis of the future of oil and the motor car by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in yesterday's Telegraph (Business News) which pointed out that it is probably China's deliberate policy to drive forward the emergence of electric cars by mandating a zero emissions quota of 10% by 2019 for new cars. They hope to dominate world electric car production and should succeed seeing that China is the biggest car market worldwide.

The amount of copper needed for the infrastructure alone will be enormous and they will be wanting to ensure continuity of supply. Hence, financing the project will not be a problem imo.

So, we're off to the races already...up 6% at 8.20am.

GLA

[mount teide] 17/11/2017 08:19

Lively start - First 11p buys going through

L2: 2 v 1 / 10.5p v 11.0p

[mrpiggy] 17/11/2017 07:48

In total agreement with your last post adorling apart from this bit..... Do not underestimate that if BKM and BKZ are proved to be one structure as Steve Hughes believes then the BFS I would assume would incorporate these reserves too in the BFS which would bring a completely new dimension and valuation.They cannot incorporate these reserves as the perimeters of the mine have already been set out for the BFS as previously stated by the company, they will just add strength to what is outlined in the BFS. Exciting week for all next week with news flow!

[highly geared] 17/11/2017 07:33

Gary; fair point. Trying to illustrate a general comparison of where ARS should go once in production on BKM and Beutong properly valued as a prospective production asset.

[gary1966] 17/11/2017 07:25

HG your post 9643 is factually incorrect. You are quoting the current market cap of CAML but are completely ignoring the production that they have just bought in your figures.

[cyberbub] 17/11/2017 07:17

Re. CAML, don't forget that their production cost is far lower than ours...

[ianbag] 17/11/2017 07:17

Funding of an asset of this quality will be straight forward - 70:30 debt to equity. All delivered at a much higher share price than current - and the equity funding will be value enhancing as the market will then value the business on a visible earnings stream - ie vastly higher than current market cap and indeed that of the date of the capital raise.

[adorling] 17/11/2017 06:31

Pyglet I recall you asking this question before? TM and PB have said funding will not be an issue given the riches of our assets that get richer by the week at present and the BFS study due to report in Q1 will simply be superb as we know every RNS has continued to exceed expectations across all parameters. “Bankable̶1; is the assurance of the BFS and we should expect a significant acceleration in share price just before this is reported in only 2-3 months from now.

Do not underestimate that if BKM and BKZ are proved to be one structure as Steve Hughes believes then the BFS I would assume would incorporate these reserves too in the BFS which would bring a completely new dimension and valuation. The fact that he has returned 2 rigs to BKZ again speaks volumes on this thinking.

Chinese investors are probably lined up now given the number of trips made this year and no doubt EMR Capital will want a slice of the cake. Then we have 1 or 2 more mining funds wanting to buy in e.g. Miton (suspect they have started to build now) so JPM don’t get to take all the cake, plus debt finance and no doubt an equity raise which I suspect will be near market price at the time given TM’s record on this front.

Likely to be a mixture of all 3 if we don’t get taken out before the mine is built by one of the bigger players such as Freeport or BHP both of whom have stated copper is where their focus is going forward. Expect a strong day.

[the manini] 17/11/2017 06:21

Our mine is being built in 2018/19. Costed in the PEA at $164 million (with a 15% contingency) but is expected to come in cheaper once all the parameters have been tweaked. Funding will be a mix of debt and equity and will not be a problem. I estimate we'll only need around $50 million from equity, so minimal dilution. The point of drilling new areas is three-fold, to improve the LOM and the economic case strength when it comes to obtaining finance, to ward off a cheap takeover and to increase the shareprice so that dilution is minimal when needed.

[pyglet] 17/11/2017 05:52

The big question is how are we going o get the funding to build the mine or have I missed that and how much is it going to cost?

[mattjwhity] 16/11/2017 21:30

https://katusaresearch.com/copper-stocks-easily-rise-10-fold-current-levels/Some valid points here for those not on board with the Copper story

[highly geared] 16/11/2017 21:27

I did try and work out the likely gross "in the ground" value of Beutong a while back, in terms of gross revenue for saleable product (copper, gold, silver, zinc etc.) , but my calculator ran out of numbers at $20 billion.... Wonder what the PEA NPV will be on that asset with it's production license in place... has to be north of a $ billion.... reckon we'll have that by mid-late 2018.

[highly geared] 16/11/2017 21:23

Interesting , albeit not direct (time wise) with CAML.

Central Asian Metals has been producing copper since c 2012 and is doing c15,000 tonnes/annum. Market cap is c. £454 million.

ARS BKM to do 25,000 tonnes annum by 2019; we're at BFS stage and market cap c. £72 million. So, CAML at 6.5x ARS market cap. With BKM 65% larger by mine plan and with BKZ etc. likely to substantially expand LOM/ resource base; and with the monster that is Beutong it's hard to see why ARS won't follow the same path as CAML but dwarf it in market cap terms as the monster assets that are KSK and Beutong are fully developed over the next 5 years.

It's a matter of patience and riding the volatility... or BHP/Glencore etc. put us out of our misery with a £500 million offer MID-LATE 2018.

[scarymonster] 16/11/2017 21:12

Please do we need sellers as well as buyers to keep the fire hot.

I'll give you a wave from 20p.