Artilium Share Discussion Threads

[any chance] 24/8/2007 11:34

Artilium - Simon Cawkwell, you are a great guy but you have not given us one business argument why this stock is overvalued. Artilium has proven world class technology that can seamlessly be integrated into any type of telco / internet infrastructure. Their opex model requires minimal investment upfront is extremely scalable and delivers already a considerable and rapidly growing profitable recurring revenue stream. This is what every institutional investor is looking for, (i) growth, (ii) recurring revenue (iii) high sustainable margins (iv) market leading technology position and (v) existing Tier I clients.

I seem to recall that you remained unbelievably bearish on Regus even after its institutional refinancing and that three years on the company is now producing free cash-flow of £120m+ per year. Perhaps it would be a good idea to see what Artilium has in store and how their highly respected CEO Robert Marcus is positioning the company going forward. He surely wouldn't have left his top position at Microsoft if he just thought this to be a one day wonder!

[simon cawkwell] 24/8/2007 10:00

Goldstar,

I simply do not see how ARTA can ever justify a capitalisation of even half its current £100m odd.

The price is manipulated by the promoters who, it must be said, have had some success at manipulation in the past. But it's only manipulation - there is no sign of commercial possibility.

Simon Cawkwell

[shanksaj] 24/8/2007 07:52

Goldstar

You might not get a reply direct, so I'll speak for EK:

EK's target price on this one is around 20p, ie the price it started at, and you can be sure he will remain short at least until it gets close to that.

I suppose the results, 12 September, will give us all a much better idea of what these are really worth. The company directors have not been very vocal about info which could be used to value the company, have they!!!

Total shares = 53.7 million
share price today = 185p
market cap = £99.3m

interim results 21/3/07
turnover = £1.7m
pre-tax loss = £1.5m
EPS = -1.36p

[goldstar] 23/8/2007 22:15

Simon... are you still short on this one then ?

[monkeywrench] 23/8/2007 10:56

He's made a packet on Sola today. I lost a lot.

[magnerita] 22/8/2007 14:45

Why was this trading at 300p back in May? And is there any chance this bounces back to these levels. The CEO seems a pretty impressive guy...

thanks,

M

[gemini 4 u] 18/8/2007 18:16

Not even in this but when was the last time it was at 50p? What was the recent high? Are we closer to that or 50p? Judging by the way it has just moved from thursday's lows and the recovery of the dow would u really want to short it?

[skythelimit] 17/8/2007 20:09

Dear Gemini 4 U,

How good to make your acquaintance, though I as sorry that my observation on Artilium so incenses you. I have days like that. I may well be a mug but I am still struggling to understand how Artilium can be valued above 50p - even that. Check out the company's balance sheet. Surely most investors in this new market conditions will re-assess their portfolios then weed out those investments whose share price cannot be justified on fundamentals. I understand the promoter of ARTA is famously persuasive. I would certainly like him on my team but how can Artilium, in this unforgiving market, defy the law of gravity? If you or anyone else out there can kindly explain how the current share price of 165p can be regarded as fair value, I am all ears. In the meantime I really don't think I will be losing my pants. But if you are a bull on this stock, I fear you might well end up being relieved of yours.

[gemini 4 u] 17/8/2007 17:04

Go ahead and short then u mug, lol, c if u don't lose ur pants..

[skythelimit] 17/8/2007 15:59

A perfect short. What is it worth? 50p at the most.

[davius] 17/8/2007 15:43

No, results are due early September and they've just appointed a new broker. Should be a broker note out with or just after the results. They couldn't offer any advice on targets, just that they were performing to expectations.

Jumped a lot more since I bailed. But then with my small punt it didn't make much difference, should have believed in them more and gone in with a few K, but there we go.

[davidosh] 17/8/2007 15:25

What are the forecast earnings please ?

Are there any brokers notes out on this one ?

[davius] 17/8/2007 14:59

Lol, Cawkwell well screwed on his short then :)

113p in. I think 159p is quite ample for me, so out today. May go higher but that's a big profit.

Tata.

[simon cawkwell] 16/8/2007 12:26

Gentlemen,

I have just sold 125,000 ARTA at around 117p. The bounce back up this morning is inexplicable as anything other than on a short squeeze.

Simon Cawkwell

[davius] 16/8/2007 11:15

Not enough sellers to fulfil that order at 120p so we've come out of the auction and are at 120-122p now.

[davius] 16/8/2007 11:10

Hello, auction kicked in when someone put a buy in at 120p when there was a seller present at 118p. At the moment is looks like it will come out at 117-120p.

The trading has been almost entirely buys since 9:15 this morning.

[davius] 16/8/2007 10:29

Have bene watching the trading on this one, goes quiet for a time then a few buys, then quiet again. It's like the buyers are waiting to see if either sellers arrive or if the share price starts to move.

And there's another tick up as a seller had his 22K at 115p snapped up. The share price moves to 113-116.75p.

I get the feeling that this could move very rapidly, the question is in which direction...