Argo Share Discussion Threads

[tiswas] 19/7/2012 08:21

Tempted by this but I also own EMG which has not been doing well!

Is it still falling because of the funds performance and the fact that they are not hitting the returns that will generate decent fees?

[stemis] 04/7/2012 08:58

If you believe that ARGO's fund management business is going to continue then this does look a poor valuation.

The market cap of ARGO is $13.8m.

ARGO has an investment in its own funds valued at around $17.7m (this takes account of the $2m investment post year end an a 5% fall in the value of the Argo Fund -

On top of that you get proforma cash of $5.0m (taking account of the $2m investment and the dividend) and a fund management business making about $2m, ebitda pa.

I think the concerns are over the fund management business; falling AUM and poor fund performance. Any news that reversed those and the share could easily double.

[wexboy] 03/7/2012 16:15

Uhoh, I tell a lie! Avangardco (AVGR:LN) doesn't actually have the cheapest P/E in my portfolio... That honour should go to Argo Group (ARGO:LN) - if you check on an ex-Cash basis - a bloody NEGATIVE P/E of 7.7!

[stemis] 28/5/2012 11:31

Price dropped by 0.75p even though dividend is 1.3p. Adding back dividend gives a comparable share price of about 15p.

[wexboy] 23/5/2012 15:12

Hey folks,

Taking a closer look at Argo Group vs. other emerging markets/alternative asset managers in my latest writeup here:



Cheers,

Wexboy

[wexboy] 16/5/2012 14:16

So, Argo's now on an ex-cash (2.6)% (yes, negative!!) of AUM - see how that stacks up vs. other alternative asset managers, and in terms of absolute value:



Cheers,

Wexboy

[wexboy] 02/5/2012 00:23

Thanks, davydoo.

Yeah, I don't buy on a lower share price these days, IF there has been negative newsflow - learnt that lesson, averaging down not so good if you eventually reach zero..! But no hint of that kind of situation here.

Same for me, a nice top up brings me back up to a 5% stake - my 4th largest portfolio position.

Cheers,

Wexboy

[davydoo] 01/5/2012 23:59

Excellent piece wexboy, along with the recent price decline gives me another chance here

[wexboy] 01/5/2012 23:40

Fresh look at Argo Group (ARGO:LN), AUM, Flub Med, Div Yield, Margin of Safety, Ex-Cash Ratios, % of AUM Val:



Cheers,

Wexboy

[stemis] 16/3/2012 13:15

Decent set of results.

+ve's

Increase in dividend to 2.0c. Now on a yield of 8.4%
Increase in NTAV/share to 26.0p
H2 EBITDA of $1.5m (= 1.4p/share)
Bullish outlook statement

-ve's

Fall in AUM to $325.4m
Deferral of payment of fees from AREOF
End of share buy back programme

My fair value for this is now 26.0p, which is 70% higher than current price.

Steady as she goes

[paperwerks] 10/2/2012 13:32

I haven't seen any recent financials, but is anyone else concerned about Argo keeping most of its cash in Cyprus banks?

Since the founders own a lot of stock I assume they would be concerned. The Cyprus banking system is strained to put it mildly, and if Greece fails then who knows what could become of our cash pile.

[wexboy] 05/1/2012 21:23

Ta very much - looks like I just have to paste the address directly from my browser, otherwise it doesn't work - cheers

[wexboy] 05/1/2012 21:22

OK, let's give it a go:

[liarspoker] 04/1/2012 07:36

I just use control C to copy and Control V to paste. No problemo. :O)

[wexboy] 31/12/2011 13:44

Hi Folks,

I've included ARGO in my Baker's Dozen for 2012 – see my latest blog post on:

wexboy.wordpress.com

Best of luck in the New Year!

Wexboy

[wexboy] 02/12/2011 20:33

Folks,

I recently launched a new value investing blog. My most recent posts are about, yeah you guessed it...ARGO.

If you have a chance, please check it out, and if you like the blog any recommendations/referrals/links etc. would be greatly appreciated! Here's the address:

wexboy.wordpress.com

Thanks & Cheers,

Wexboy

[stemis] 03/10/2011 12:34

Still buying back shares. Obviously struggling to get them. These were bought at 15.25p (up from 14.88p at the end of August).

[wexboy] 19/8/2011 14:25

ARGO interims out today - ARGO continues to remain safe ($25.972 mio cash/investments, no debt) and cheap (P/E 8.3 (LTM eps) & an 8.0% dividend yield) - updating my analysis (see post 32), i peg fair value now at:

$10.250 mio Cash + $15.722 mio Investments + $379.7 mio AUM * 3.75% = $ 40.211 mio / 1.6595 GBP/USD = GBP 24.231 mio / 69.753 mio shares =

GBP 34.7p per share potential 132% upside from current share price

support for the stock should come from further prospective share buybacks between GBP 12-14p, upside should come from new investors finding the stock/taking advantage of the low valuation, but a good percentage of the real upside may have to wait for growth in AUM, which will depend on a better market and hopefully (as i've commented on before) a better fund-raising push now from the company

[nigel schofield] 16/8/2011 07:21

This (july):

and follow-up (today):



Interesting for holders.

[qvg] 08/8/2011 11:33

and give us a good opportunity to buy more cheap shares for ourselves ....