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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argo Group Limited | ARGO | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 4.00 | 08:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| GENERAL FINANCIAL |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 13/2/2021 12:23 by stemis Here's my summary of the investment case for anyone interested.The basic numbers – As at 30 June 2020 Argo, which is an alternate hedge fund manager/investor had net assets per share of 39.9p compared to a share price of 23p. Hidden within this is a receivable from AREOF of $12.2m, which is fully provided, and the recovery of which would add 22.7p to NAV value, taking it to 62.6p, or 2.7 x the current share price. Just under a year ago Argo undertook a tender offer to redeem around 17% of it's shares at a price of 26p. Like with many companies, Argo's share price was hit by the crash early in 2020, dropping from 24.5p to 15p. It has only recently started to recovery. The company is run by the Rialas brothers who own 63.6% of the shares. Why is the share price so low? - As the company itself says “the current level of AUM remains below that required to ensure sustainable profits on a recurring management fee basis in the absence of performance fees.”. Let's also face it, as I'll show, some of the assets are fairly opaque. What are the risks – before covering the investment case I'll cover this first. Clearly the Rialas brothers, with a 63.6% holding, could probably de-list this anytime they wanted. It's small, unloved and the cost of being a plc is probably significant relative to total overheads. Related party transactions are not uncommon. 56% of their assets are tied up in a loan to Argo Real Estate Limited Partnership (ARE), an entity that is 100% owned by one of the Rialas brothers and whose key asset is a retail park in Odessa, Ukraine - Another 36% is invested in The Argo Fund (TAF), which essentially invests in emerging market debt and which Argo itself manages. Their holding comprises 7% of TAF. What is the investment case? – first, on balance, I don't believe the Rialas brothers will screw over minority shareholders. They've had plenty of time to do this (it's been listed since 2008) and frankly, badly treating the investment community when you rely on it to invest in the funds you manage wouldn't be a good look. But no promises... The loan to ARE is basically so that the Odessa development can access funding from the EBRD and complete the project. That would facilitate recovery of outstanding fees from AREOF mentioned above, which is worth 22.7p a share to Argo. Argo have always seemed quite optimistic about recovering these fees although provided for them in the accounts. Finally, success in increasing the AUM by Argo should trigger a more realistic valuation by the market of Argo's assets. This is what they say in their accounts - "The Board remains optimistic about the Group's prospects based on the transactions in the pipeline and the Group's initiatives to increase AUM....Boosting AUM will be Argo's top priority in the next six months. The Group's marketing efforts will continue to focus on TAF which has a 19-year track record as well as identifying acquisitions that are earnings enhancing... Over the longer term, the Board believes there is significant opportunity for growth in assets and profits...Finally in July 2020 we have launched the Argo US Feeder Fund in an effort to attract US onshore investors as the Group's main target is to increase assets under management.'' This is obviously deep value sort of stuff and not most investors cup of tea. It also relies on your view of the Rialas brothers, both whether they know what they are doing and whether they can be trusted. Of that I can give no guarantees... |
Posted at 13/10/2017 09:21 by stemis Well the next set of accounts will be interesting. Here's what they said at the interimsContinuous investor interest in the Argo Fund is expected to materialize into more sizeable subscriptions in the second half of the year. |
Posted at 01/8/2017 08:47 by hugepants These look like very good results. Market cap is only £7.5M, compares with $24M of net liquid assets.Key highlights for the six months period ended 30 June 2017 This report sets out the results of Argo Group Limited (the "Company") and its subsidiaries (collectively "the Group" or "Argo") covering the six months ended 30 June 2017. - Revenues US$6.3 million (six months to 30 June 2016: US$4.0 million) - Operating profit US$3.3 million (six months to 30 June 2016: profit US$3.8 million) - Profit before tax US$5.1 million (six months to 30 June 2016: profit US$4.9 million) - Net assets US$24.8 million (31 December 2016: US$20.1 million) Commenting on the results and outlook, Kyriakos Rialas, Chief Executive Officer of Argo said: "The results of AGL's first six months are a reflection of strong subscriptions and performance in the emerging markets. Investors continue to seek yield in a consistently low global interest rate regime despite recent tapering noise from ECB and interest rate increases by the FED. AGL's results include a significant element of performance fees from the workout of one of the distressed assets. Continuous investor interest in the Argo Fund is expected to materialize into more sizeable subscriptions in the second half of the year. " |
Posted at 28/9/2016 10:28 by paperwerks "Sorry wrong thread...."Hey, no worries. PMR looks cheap now. 1/2 book. Losses halted. New ceo seems to be turning the company around. But I hate brokers which is why PMR is a Deep value play... Some so called value investors must be feeling poorly now that they have sold out of argo at 10p. It was hard to hold. Laziness helped me to hold.... My faith in value investing is being restored by Argo after accumulating a few value traps lately. Did Joeron Bos from Church House sell his Argo at 10p? Shocking if true!.... |
Posted at 16/8/2016 19:20 by sharpish There are also two value investors on board with 2 million shares each - Church House and David Barry, roughly 8.25% of total. Barry bought in only a few months ago, Church House has been there a while. Neither likely to sell without a vastly improved bid vs current levels. |
Posted at 14/4/2015 11:22 by stemis The discount does look big (although not 75% - the accounts are in $) but what concerns me is the complete lack of visibility of the performance of individual funds. Argo has become a portfolio of investments in its own funds. At end of June 2014, out of $28m net assets, $26m is either investment, loans or outstanding fees relating to its funds. Since then we've had no news. There appears to be nothing accessible on line. These are tiny funds and ARGO charges them a lot to cover its costs. If performance is poor it's hard to see why investors would stick with them. |
Posted at 12/3/2013 02:32 by wexboy Argo Group Awaiting ResultsIf you're a private investor/adviser/fun Please comment, and/or email me at wexboymail@yahoo.com Cheers, Wexboy |
Posted at 19/8/2011 14:25 by wexboy ARGO interims out today - ARGO continues to remain safe ($25.972 mio cash/investments, no debt) and cheap (P/E 8.3 (LTM eps) & an 8.0% dividend yield) - updating my analysis (see post 32), i peg fair value now at:$10.250 mio Cash + $15.722 mio Investments + $379.7 mio AUM * 3.75% = $ 40.211 mio / 1.6595 GBP/USD = GBP 24.231 mio / 69.753 mio shares = GBP 34.7p per share potential 132% upside from current share price support for the stock should come from further prospective share buybacks between GBP 12-14p, upside should come from new investors finding the stock/taking advantage of the low valuation, but a good percentage of the real upside may have to wait for growth in AUM, which will depend on a better market and hopefully (as i've commented on before) a better fund-raising push now from the company |
Posted at 27/7/2011 06:24 by gingerplant Investment manager Argo Group (LSE: ARGO) isn't one for the faint of heart. Such companies can be hard to get to grips with and when you factor in Argo's Cypriot base and AIM-listing, sensible investors may wish stop reading now.On the other hand, at 13.9p, the company is valued at just £9.7m, yet has over £7m in cash, net working capital of over £16m, net tangible assets of £16.4m, made a pre-tax profit of £750,000 in the first half and has recently put some potentially troublesome legislation to bed. So the valuation seems to make little sense -- something which hasn't gone unnoticed as the company has been buying back its own shares for cancellation. Meanwhile, the CEO and Chief Investment Officer own a third of the company between them. |
Posted at 07/5/2011 19:09 by wexboy if the board sold the fund management business, and liquidated the company, yes i think 35p per share is achievable today - but that requires an event..! for the share price to rise to that level otherwise requires confirmation the lawsuit is totally dead and some real growth in AUM to kickstart a price rise - once that happens the virtuous circle kicks in, remember most private investors will only start buying after the share price rises 50-100%... the timing of this, i've given up on trying to figure that out! meanwhile, the level of cash & investments, the share buyback & dividend, the % share ownership by the board, and the secular growth from emerging markets all make me feel very comfortable with this shareholding |
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