Archipelago Resources Share Discussion Threads

[yorgi] 01/7/2011 12:45

The lower than first estimate is disappointing Boadicea but up to now Colin and his team have done well. There may well be further good news regarding further exploration in the area which will further extend the mine life. I'm very upbeat and have confidence in Colin Loosemeore.

The MM's have done well today marking it down first thing encouraging some sales and have continued to frighten nervous PI's into selling. Will consider adding when funds available if it stays down or continues to fall.

[boadicea] 01/7/2011 11:35

Basically the story here at a quick scan looks a good one.
This is significantly offset by the last breath issue of results which hardly makes the co appear 'on-the-ball'. This worries me more than a slight delay in production pick-up.... or does it just illustrate that the co is run by miners rather than accountants!

They only have to more or less achieve something near (like ~80%) of potential output at no more than 20% above estimated cost to make this look good value, I think - as long as pog remains around or above $1500/oz.

Melody - Your figures look ok to me but after allowing some leeway on costs I estimated nearer 8p, rising to 20p on full output which should eliminate (or at least reduce) cost/oz over-run.

With a reasonable (and extendable?) mine life, that is not demanding.
Should I also assume that the b/f losses give a long run before any tax is due?

Working on forward projections is only sensible if management have a reliable record of performance. As a new-comer here, I am somewhat short on the history.
What is the consensus view on this thread?

[yorgi] 01/7/2011 08:32

There is not exactly a queue of people wanting to sell but the MM's have taken the opportunity to mark it down to try and drum up some sellers.

[melody9999] 01/7/2011 00:15

I'm just trying to get a scale of likely profitability. Looking at their base cost financial model it shows average annual EBITDA as $114M. So in 2011 with 50% of average production, if we assume EBITDA is $50M. With 493M shares in issue, this is EPS of 10p, or forward PE of 6 based on share price of 60p.

Are my figures wrong or is this looking too cheap?

[cockerell] 01/7/2011 00:03

snickerdog - agreed

[snickerdog] 30/6/2011 23:45

Well, perhaps they might beat the targets anyway.

Lots of drilling underway and some good results, JORC upgrade in time.

I was interested in the social and community programmes - very good that these are high priority too as well as shareholder value.

[cockerell] 30/6/2011 22:27

I don't think the market was expecting anything. No one follows it!

[1chunk] 30/6/2011 22:04

Well, not what the market expected so I expect this to be hammered tomorrow. Could make some money on a short, we'll see how it goes.

Regards

[cockerell] 30/6/2011 20:00

They had to be published by today and they certainly left it late! Looks like a bit of a rush job too. 30k oz is a big miss, I always thought 110k in the first year was optimistic. Would have been nice to hear how the production ramp up was going but I suppose it's just a case of wait and see. However it is good to see a bit more info on 'Nam, looks like there could be some news there this year.

[yorgi] 30/6/2011 16:50

Yes I noticed that Silverfern but I wouldn't think that is a big deal a bit down I know but I suppose the normal teething troubles with a new plant.....but if the POG continues it's trend it will be more than made up for.

What is good is the expected extended life of the mine.

[silverfern] 30/6/2011 16:43

wuld you believe it- I emailed Colin about them today and he publishes them. I note 80k now the target for 2011

[lfc4ever] 27/6/2011 08:43

A big buyer in play this morning I see.

[holism] 21/6/2011 08:41

Yes and they will have to close soon.

[snickerdog] 20/6/2011 21:34

Hedge funds shorting gold miners at the moment.

[yorgi] 20/6/2011 15:06

I would agree but AR. is not the only miner suffering decline for no good reason. Well I hope this is the case. As long as Colins team are digging the gold and selling in the quantity anticipated the share price will reflect it in time. Then of course further good news of more gold being found will all have an impact.

[yorgi] 20/6/2011 15:05

I would agree but AR. is not the only miner suffering decline for no good reason. Well I hope this is the case. As long as Colins team are digging the gold and selling in the quantity anticipated the share price will reflect it in time. Then of course further good news of more gold being found will all have an impact.

[lfc4ever] 20/6/2011 14:53

general market, yes, but pog still holding up- that should be more relevant to us than ftse or dow.

[yorgi] 20/6/2011 11:37

Is it Ifc4ever, bearing in mind the market in general at the moment ???

[lfc4ever] 20/6/2011 11:24

bit odd this.

[yorgi] 16/6/2011 19:37

Exactly Snickerdog :-)

[snickerdog] 16/6/2011 19:30

Year end december results should not matter too much at all as our first gold was poured after this. It's any operational updates provided after this which should matter. To hit 100k oz by year end and to get some great drill results out, that's what we need to look forward to.

[boadicea] 15/6/2011 21:13

Poster Ajviews on AGLD thread turned up this report from Standard Chartered which may interest some here.



It mentions Archipelago (also, inter alia, Medusa and Allied Gold which I happen to hold).
It foresees gold at around $5000/oz and (from a brief scan) appears to suggest maximum returns likely to be from junior miners, either by expansion or more particularly by the majors being forced to supplement their resources by expensive acquisitions.

[boadicea] 15/6/2011 16:37

davegk - Sounds improbable!
Last year's agm was indeed on 29th June following preliminary results on 24th May.
For the date (29/6) suggested we would have needed the preliminaries two weeks ago! (I think it is a common error on Sharescope to leave last year's date in there until this year's is known.)

The company looks promising but I don't like delays - they usually signal a problem and only very occasionally a propitious event. Time for crossed fingers, I think.

[snickerdog] 11/6/2011 21:25

Remember that first gold pour was 1st April 2011. Year end Dec 2010



However, a great opportunity to provide good update on what they have been up too since. Target is 100k by year end and I think Coil Loosemore will do it. That's 100k in 3 quarters, pretty good!

$30m on exploration this year and CL is possibly going to push the finance guys for a dividend.

Drilling continues in a number of hotspots....

[davegk] 10/6/2011 11:20

Boadicea Sharescope news has "Full year 2011 AGM" Wed June 29.