That divi was for the entire year. They are paying out infrequently now, as they stated they would, so this dividend was not inconsistent with income - hence the NAV, ceteris paribus, is more or less unaffected. |
Langland - don't forget we had the 6 odd pence 'divi' last year.
These small trusts in wind down do tend to find ways for the NAV to slip despite that not being the original pitch!
The superbonus monies (as others have said) should be substantial versus the share price. At least the penalty interest on them is attractive if further delays are experienced. |
Not a lot I can add to recent comments but....
Let's say NAV is reduced to 90p or say £73mn. Once superbonus is received cash should be about 50% of the NAV. As HP points out the portfolio gets income around 8%+ and probably about half the hedging collateral can be release since no longer required. Therefore, a purchase at 51/2 now may realise 70/75% upside for half your holding over the next few months via a tender offer mechanism. All IMO. |
The Rathbones effect is unhelpful to short termers. For long termers, it could hardly be more helpful. The discount post distribution of anything like the amount possible through current cash holdings plus Superbonus will be huge. Not that the remaining assets will be easy sales, but it does look a tremendous risk/reward. |
Thanks hughpants, I was hoping they were getting close to 40p in cash, even though the share price says otherwise |
On re-reading last results to end June they state they had £14.9M cash in August.
Take off the following;
£5M (dividends) + £2.5M (hedging euros) + £0.8M (commitments) + £1.05M (creditors)
which gives net cash of £5.5M or 6.7p. Can also add 6 month earnings on to that.
Then £28.8M of Superbonus investments anticipated to be redeemed by early 2025.
"...The Investment Adviser believes that the Superbonus investments are likely to be substantially redeemed by the 2024 year end with full redemption in early 2025 although timing remains uncertain."
That's another 35p per share if all redeemed. So AEET could have around 40p per share in cash now.
And have they managed to sell any of the other assets? They've stopped the quarterly updates so who knows.
I think NAV will be written down to about 90p just because the sector is in the doldrums but AEET is cash generative and ungeared so I don't think any NAV reduction should be too drastic. |
I don't think he's saying the remainder would be worth 50% of the book value but given the current market the share price may well be at a 40%-50% discount.
FWIW I expect they will write down the NAV at next results but this should be mitigated somewhat by income generation. |
@langland: I never really follow comments like that. care to elaborate...?
Value range is complex and is presumably determined in large part by the tail of capital returns...?
I've heard talk of this gbp30mn coming in soon. lets assume its 'certain' and it comes out as capital return quickly - that justifies about 75% of the current price (or 36-37p)
that then leaves about 60p+ of NAV (published NAV is 95p) which you are saying is worth say another 30p, so a 50% discount being applied to that.
Is that what you are suggesting? |
With about 30mn of superbonus funds due to be received in the early part of this year, I would have thought fair value would be in the 60-65 range. |
This managed run off has a sporting analogy - when a soccer player is substituted with a few minutes remaining and their team is leading, their "managed run off" makes sure they leave the pitch as slowly as it's possible, maybe tying a bootlace (if boots for billion pound players have laces), waving to the crowds, etc
Apparently the discount is 47% |
Ex 6.139p this morning. Back to a ridiculously high spread again |
Picked up 4000 at 60.72p, on 35% discount to NAV. 6.139p (10.11%) dividend paid within a month. |
It seems that Aquila bought some very good investments, if only they hadn't taken so long to buy them and treated communicating with shareholders like it was the equivalent of cleaning the shower drain (something I only do when I have to).
As Jim Bowen used to say on Bullseye "Let's have a look at what you could have won!".
AEET was my worst investment decision because I kept buying into a falling share price but now it seems likely I will make an undeserved profit. Those who bought at the bottom will make a much bigger and deserved profit without taking much risk. |
Thought they may manage a small dividend, not over 6p and there's clearly a big capital return (around £28M) coming early next year.
Positive despite their usual best efforts to sound negative! |
I have not forgotten about this. But after that, there is a long void. |
In addition to the about 17mn cash in hand (from memory). |
Exactly...huge pants. |
Chucko I think you are forgetting the £30m in super bonus bonds due to be redeemed by end of the year. |
The issue I have with AEET is the extremely long term assets remaining (on average). Given the far greater immediacy of things like GABI, ASLI and API etc., I would rather have the bulk of my winddown chips with the latter.
Having said that, I did own a modest chunk of this prior to the first capital return (via tender), and that was uneventful and profitable. But the portfolio has been rather different in composition from that point. Lower rates might still make this interesting. |
It seems to me that this is completely off everyone's radar and yet has one of the biggest potential uplifts of the wind up plays. And yet when it was mentioned on the wind up thread we were shot down. Maybe everyone thinks it's a wind up! |
No sign of a quarterly update then. Its going to be pretty pointless releasing it at the same time as the interims. |
Chunky buy at 59.5p.
Due a quarterly update. |
Quite a few decent sized trades going through at the mid price just now. |
Spread here is ridiculous at over 8% 57-62p. However at 61p, discount is over 35% to latest 94.28p NAV.
Picked up 5000 at 60.85p this morning, with over 50% upside to nav. |
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