Aquila Energy Efficiency Share Discussion Threads

[cc2014] 09/1/2024 09:14

I have been puzzling over these larger trades over the last few months. A considerable number of trades around the 250k size have gone through, yet we've seen no RNS on who is buying or selling.

It seems to look like one buyer who appears to have some form of arrangement with the MM where the buyer says I'll take up to 250k at 56.5p but I'm not paying any more. Once the 250k is filled the buyer seems to go away for a few days or a week or whatever before asking the MM to collect up to another 250k for them.

I do not know who is buying they must by now have 2-3 million shares, possibly many more.

The sells keep coming though and there are only so many options as to where they are coming from. My guess would be a few from either Rathbones or Schroders with a scattering from some of the other smaller institutional holders facing redemptions

[hugepants] 08/1/2024 23:26

some larger trades going through recently

[hindsight] 19/12/2023 08:59

Hugepants, thanks for posting offer was skewed, prompted me to add a few yesterday

[psychochopper] 18/12/2023 19:38

It has not bounced because BOTH there has been no recent news of any sort AND there is a merciless seller who just needs to quit a position.

Paying no recent (more?) dividends is a further headwind.

[hugepants] 18/12/2023 11:22

Fixed income trusts in general have bounced a bit recently but not this one.
There is currently a very tight spread - 55.25p to 55.3p.

Latest NAV is 93.5p which was at end of June. June to Sept probably saw a further decrease in NAV but that could have been the bottom since alternative trusts have rebounded somewhat. Trying to get a handle on the current NAV, Anyone have any idea as to what current earnings are given its ungeared? 4p per annum about right? I'm hoping NAV not less than 90p currently.

Loads of possible upside here but still no news on realisations.

[psychochopper] 22/11/2023 12:44

It might tell us a lot given the relatively benign current conditions. Famous last words.

[hugepants] 22/11/2023 12:20

16 Aug 23
...Accordingly, the process to market test the portfolio sale is commencing today and is being conducted by Stifel Nicolaus Europe Limited ("Stifel") on behalf of the Company.

Due an update on this surely?

[gaiusgracchus] 25/10/2023 15:12

Someone with heft sees value clearly

[cc2014] 25/10/2023 11:06

Another decent sized trade for AEET at least and still loads of liquidity.

It seems to me the buyer is happy to soak up everything they can get at 55p

[hugepants] 13/10/2023 16:09

There's more liquidity all of a sudden anyway. Maybe they've done a deal.

[cousinit] 13/10/2023 11:47

Still here (but bought back in recently having sold out around 75p when other discounts had drifted wider).

Could this be Investec selling for clients transferring/cashing out? So many other trusts appear friendless. I guess it will need concrete cash returns to drive interest. Potential/likely cash returns don't seem to be enough at this point!

[cc2014] 12/10/2023 15:49

OK, so here's a guess.

On the basis that existing RNS's show that most of the shares are tightly held and there has been no large holder in the market selling apart from Investec, I'm guessing Investec have supplied the shares that have been traded.

If we add up the shares over the last 3 days and halve the volume because I have this feeling they are kind of matched in some way it's a million shares that have gone through.

So, Investec supply a million but who has bought them? Could be anyone. Question is whether a million is enough or they will keep going?

Not that it matters because Investec have in excess of 20m shares left and were probably the fund that influenced the wind-up.

[cc2014] 12/10/2023 12:33

For those left here there has been a run of large trades the last 3 three days many being reported late after the bell.

Most of them kind of all look matched in some way moving from one party to another.

I tried to work out who the seller might be but I got nowhere.


It's anyone's guess whether the seller has finished or whether they have millions and millions left but at least we have reached a support level.

[cc2014] 27/9/2023 08:26

Regrettably I suppose I shouldn't expect anything any different when we are talking Italian government administration of the scheme

"40 of these 84 projects have secured their final tax credit accreditation" and we continue to get 10% p.a. while we wait.

I doesn't especially concern me but it seems AEET can't get much of a break with regard to anything

[frazboy] 27/9/2023 08:16

Is the excerpt below a red flag? The extra interest is the saviour but bear in mind that they're trying to sell the job lot of what appear to be small, complex and disparate projects...'However, the ESCOs are experiencing delays in receiving certification that the projects qualify for tax credits and the buyers of the tax credits are taking time to make the payments due. As a result of this, the projects now have a longer maturity than originally forecast. This results in additional interest, currently at the rate of 10% per annum, being earned by the Company on the capital committed and deployed. As a result of the delays, the ESCOs are expecting the majority of the capital deployed to be redeemed by the end of the second quarter of 2024 with final payments expected in September 2024. This compares with their earlier expectation of the majority of capital deployed being redeemed by the end of January 2024'

[cc2014] 27/9/2023 08:11

Dividend binned as directors have undertaken to only pay dividends out of "revenue" and they've spent so much on fees with regard to the wind-up it looks like there wasn't enough left.

I expect there will be a final dividend but surely more will be spent on fees in the second half?

I'm really struggling with the decision to wind this up. Nothing I can do about that but it does seem that the institutions pressed the self-destruct button

[hugepants] 27/9/2023 07:56

Interims:

The directors aren't helping much. No dividend announced despite cash earnings of 0.71p They don't say why just they've decided not to! Also no mention I can see of a 4th quarter distribution so it looks like its going to be a while before shareholders see anything back unless there's a sale of all the assets (process ongoing).

[frazboy] 21/9/2023 08:32

Dividend announcement overdue here although this could be because of the adoption of the new payment policy? Not sure

[frazboy] 14/9/2023 13:55

Thanks HP, that’s useful info.

[hugepants] 14/9/2023 12:51

Fraz, They hid away some important info in the Notice of AGM Statement which was only available on their website;


...The Board has determined that the Company should be re-organised and put into Managed Run-Off whereby assets will be realised at the best value which the Directors consider can be achieved within a reasonable timeframe. Given the Company’s current cash levels, size of the Unfunded Commitments set out above, and the expected natural run-off of the Company’s investments, the Board expects to be in a position to start to return capital to Shareholders in the fourth quarter of 2023. However, under the Managed Run-Off, the Company will continue, with its advisers, to consider other strategic solutions in respect of the Company’s assets which have the potential to offer greater shareholder value sooner than under a run-off of the investments. The Board will also consider any proposals which address the Company’s size and liquidity which would need to be assessed against the potential value which can be achieved for Shareholders via a Managed Run-Off.

There should be news of some sort in the next 2 weeks even if its only the interim results and a dividend announcement.

[frazboy] 14/9/2023 12:34

Having delved through most of the above posts, and the most recent company announcements I have to say I find this an odd one. Floated just over a couple of years ago and then has a continuation vote not long after, which doesn't get voted through due to lack of liquidity and size...

Spangle, If I'm reading the reports correctly the cash on the balance sheet was largely committed and thus that isn't the correct way of breaking it down. Could be wrong tho. Having said that, when the Italian super bonus projects redeem in early 2024 the cash on the balance sheet will be real. HP, did you see something about a capital return this year in the announcements? Couldn't find anything. Should hopefully get a dividend of some sort from cash flows from committed and funded projects as per the new dividend policy but I've no idea how much.

Return and distribution of capital from the superbonus projects supports the investment case (and the widening discount to NAV at that point on the remaining projects) but I'm not sure how fast they'll find a buyer for the other projects. There are rather a lot of them, don't know enough about the realm to know whether selling the job lot is realistic. Still didn't stop me buying a few in hope though!

[hindsight] 17/8/2023 14:51

As the offer is 50k and the bid 5k, it suggests someone still sitting on them. Will add if seller gets keener again

[cynicalsteve] 17/8/2023 13:38

Hi CC2014, I'm one of the retail investors you are talking about, I reduced my holding by selling into (relative!) strength in March. Today I made my first purchase since February, a mere 1457 for my ISA. AEET looks cheap but many other alternative income funds are now looking cheap so I'm spreading my money around (NESF for example). Disappointed there hasn't been any dividend news yet.

[cc2014] 17/8/2023 11:54

My interpretation of the last couple of RNS's is that finally the tide has turned. Over the couple of weeks FTSE has fallen around 5% yet AEET has managed to turn up.

We no longer have a seller dumping large quantites below the bid. Indeed that seller went away over a month ago now. It's difficult to presume anything but my guess is the the share price is now in free flow and is much more likely to go up than ever it was before.

Time will tell but there does seem to be a trickle of (retail) buyers fighting a much smaller trickle of distressed or fed up (retail) sellers.


The market test will be interesting. As far as I can see the Board/fund manager has set it up to give it more than half an chance by increasing the weighted avearge discount rate to 8.2% in the June half year accounts. That's higher than the rest of the sector which would give any bidder a bit of room to make an offer close enough to NAV to be tempting to enough shareholders.