Abrdn Property Income Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 15/2/2023 16:29

Technically looks to be headed lower. Will watch for the 61.8% FIB retracement level down at 58p. Though fundamentally attractive again as at 64.4% the discount has opened up to 39.3% and the yield now at 6.21%.


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[flyer61] 15/2/2023 16:18

Share price wobbling today...any thoughts?

[nickrl] 02/2/2023 10:06

Putting aside the refinancing fiasco bill and NAV being bashed down 20.1% they are plodding along reasonably well in getting the cash although would be nice to see the vacancy rate.

Dropped them when still SLI although as now back above my 6% threshold will keep a watch.

[nickrl] 16/1/2023 17:10

without wish to deviate even more off thread the UK has had an extraordinary good run with wind been above 10GW almost continuously, there have been a couple of lulls, which has massively backed off the need to run gas turbines further reducing demand for gas helping its price both in day ahead and futures. Not quite a 12mth low today but NBP UK GAS is a few pence/therm off hitting a 16mth low.

All positive and will help the downward trajectory of inflation but a lot is built in already thats going to take a while to unwind so still expect 0.25-0.5% rise next month.

[hindsight] 16/1/2023 17:02

SpectoAcc, pass but think all the little savings add up. Be it as you say coal or here we cut heating 1C and our units used are 20% down.

Resi house prices the shock today, thought that tanker had turned

[spectoacc] 16/1/2023 16:51

@hindsight - guess a fair bit has been the return to coal? Particularly in China (pre-shutdown, not sure about now). Look at Germany planning to dig more up.

There's definitely a Goldilocks element going on. Ruffer this morning nailed the climate change transition - things aren't going to be cheap, easy, or cost-free. Think you have to believe we can keep burning coal without consequence (or find a magical source of clean energy) for the belief we won't all get eaten by bears.

[hindsight] 16/1/2023 16:47

Gas also hughly effects Nitrogen fertilizer prices, which have now fallen and so are softs which need it

Personally quite amazed by gas falls, begs question how low would it have been if Russia still been fully pumping

-15% now today

[spectoacc] 16/1/2023 16:19

Yes can't deny it's been one hell of a rally - FTSE near all-time highs. Not what I expected at all, but then that's the joy of the market - rarely a dull moment.

On gas - paper said the big falls would benefit inflation "..By 0.4% in 2023", not sure how they came up with that figure but could indeed be all the forward-bought, fixed price deals.

Meanwhile, petrol is at least cheaper, a more everyday cost for many.

Goldilocks economy - can't last IMO ;)

[nickrl] 16/1/2023 16:07

Pretty remarkable turnaround for a company thats just squandered 6m of shareholders fund although i guess they at least came clean and admitted it had been poorly timed.

Certainly 2023 seems to be disregarding all that gloom from back end of 2022 and as @hindsight observes there has been quite a tumble on forward gas prices right across the next 12mths but many suppliers will be locked ion at much higher prices currently so govt won't see an immediate benefit. Whats important is suppliers are supported to lock in volumes now whilst prices are reduced. Yes they could go lower but can easily flip the other way as well as the reality is the loss of Russian gas requires a big pull of LNG from other parts of the globe and with China heavily reducing demand last year due to ongoing Covid restrictions the market was readily supplied. Might not be the same this year but as ever the weather is the real determinate here.

[skyship] 16/1/2023 12:09

RCT - yes, clearly sold too soon, but bought well and a nice turn, so happy with that. Also added to my EPIC - so pretty well pari-passu.

[hindsight] 16/1/2023 10:38

For me gas prices alaways were the key denominator, expected them to revert at some point later this year but never saw the complete collapse coming
Further -10% today

[rcturner2] 16/1/2023 10:19

I think you might have sold too soon here Skyship.

The UK economy seems to be holding up better than many people expected and a lot of the falls in the share prices in various sectors are overdone.

[skyship] 03/1/2023 08:20

Decided to take the very nice 15%+ turn at a smidgeon under 62p. Reinvested into more EPIC. Also added to my 2023 Tip - GGP - an Ozzie gold play with great fundamentals and a great chart.

[nickrl] 30/12/2022 10:34

@specto re #266 taking your ready reckoner of 3% margin over a 2yr fix savings account would only liberate the following currently at SPs at the time of posting and my view of risk-

RGL - 11.1% capital loss highly likely
NRR - 9.2% capital loss low-med probability
RLE - 8.6% selling down the estate by stealth but Bassi could make a move?
EPIC - 8.3% capital appreciation possible if it buys at the right price
AIRE - 8.2% stable but at risk from Meridan being dominant tenant
AEWU - 7.9% capital loss low-med probability
SREI - 7.9% capital loss low-med probability


All on hefty discounts except AEWU so it depends on whether the SP's have priced in too much gloom already and will react to NAV's not falling as much at Q4. This is about a quarter of the reit/propcos on my tracker so a lot don't make the cut but are well supported.

[spectoacc] 29/12/2022 14:36

Union Bank of India (fully FSCS covered) 4.51% (2 year), but down on recent rates - fixed with them at 5% last month, and a couple elsewhere at 4.9% to 2026. I think rates are going higher and staying high, but c.4.5% looks a top to me.

As an aside, something I've been banging on about for a while:



Getting OT for the API thread, but don't underestimate the fall in money going in to the market - and how much coming out, whether to FRB's or pay bills.

Big test will be the ISA season in April.

[hindsight] 29/12/2022 13:56

Not seen much at 4.5% of decent credit quality. Some of them have even cuts rates a bit lately, no surprise as first time buyers wont be queing up on the other side of the trade

[hugepants] 29/12/2022 13:10

4.5% in a fixed 2 year bond maybe. In reality you may get 3% instant access if you shop around.And that 3% now with inflation at 10% is considerably worse in real terms than the 1% earlier this year with inflation at 2.5%.

[spectoacc] 29/12/2022 11:48

Fair comments @nickrl, and ultimate counter to the gloomy argument is surely "It's in the price".

But do think an eg 6.4%, ungrowing divi is pushing it to be enough now the tide has turned. True of all the REITs - whatever yield they were on before needs to be considerably higher now.

4% when cash savings was 1% - great. 6% when cash savings 4.5% - comes down to whether that 6% is going to be growing IMO. Difficult to see that for many.

[nickrl] 29/12/2022 11:15

@specto well if divi goes nowhere its still worth 6.4% at todays share price but they will be eating into capital to sustain it for at least next 12mths. In the short term 6.07m of shareholder funds has been consumed remedying the disastrous loan refinancing with no guarantee this arrangement will be of long run benefit. That said as i see it with 10yr yield drifting out to 3.7% it seems pretty likely by April 23, when current loan arrangements expire, SONIA will be at 3.5-4%. So the interest rate cap on teh new loan will kick in at 5.46%. The RCF has no protection although no need to use it currently with cash on hand. As others have said in the round this feels like window dressing and a high cost to shareholders and will only really pay off if IR fall back substantially. Mind you given your forward view (mine isn't far behind) on the economy at least API will be able to benefit as soon as SONIA is less than 3.5% again.

Looking at NAV compared to peer group they were middle of the pack although their retail valuation looks too low compared to others so may see that down more at Q4.

On the positive side there declaration of several new leases being close to be secured is probably what helped here as it both lower the vacancy levels a fair amount and all the costs that go with that along with giving a boost to NRI so divi becomes closer to being covered again.

For me its got too high for now but im more disposed towards it.

[spectoacc] 29/12/2022 08:13

Asset inflation likely be asset deflation this coming year. And API's dividend going nowhere now for years.

Has had a nice Santa rally tho, and would only take one tipster to send it up the same again (or was this rise a tipster?).

Am bullish on this coming year - just not yet ;) Looking forward to getting invested in probably the 2nd half (only a guess). Recession won't be anywhere near over, but market may have started to reflect the situation by then.

Bear markets separate the wheat from the chaff.

[hindsight] 28/12/2022 18:29

panshanger1, in my book this was one that was due a bounce, the swap issue was overly discounted. But now looks roughly right vs others
Tend to think all trusts will see some weakness in the new year but im not quite as bearish as specctoacc :-)
Also investors have to come round to accepting less income spread over gilts for asset inflation long term

[panshanger1] 28/12/2022 14:18

Nice recovery here Have we seen the lows ?

[speedsgh] 20/12/2022 15:30

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