Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[jtidsbadly] 15/6/2022 16:10

If the gas price carries on rising like this, they’re going to worry at Chiswick, what?

[noelpbz] 15/6/2022 16:02

HITS - Derivative liability from the Annual Report 14th March 22 - Note 24 page 69 is in fact 52.125M.

[tidy 2] 15/6/2022 15:57

U.K. gas up 27% to 250.00 p/thermhTTps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cxwdwz5d8gxt/natural-gas

[jtidsbadly] 15/6/2022 13:58

Thank you 3Put. We all need some of that, no matter how much research we do. Yes, this could come good but there’s too many imponderables for me and the management is shocking. Good luck to you too.
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[3put] 15/6/2022 13:54

Good luck , whatever your strategy

[3put] 15/6/2022 13:54

XSG raised at 1p when it was 5p , naughty. Didn't stop it doing 150% yesterday. My point is, just because it's been a bumpy road since ipo 2016 doesnt mean it will not go on a do well. We are now at a point of delivering revenue.

[3put] 15/6/2022 13:51

Mug punters are the kind of people who post join-the-dots outlines of rockets, use terms such as “boom” and refer to the activities of market makers as if they have a clue what they’re talking about.

JT: AIM is full of absolute nonsense, I actually think Angs have been decent thus far. It is what it is, but the attraction for me is to find the diamond. Angs could be it! We know George is a pain but mcap , potential & deliver all still to play for.

[3put] 15/6/2022 13:49

I fiddle about in the equity options market, where the returns can be very high, and the losses much quicker in materialising

JT: Nice, I also dabble.

[3put] 15/6/2022 13:48

Do you really not understand, 3Put? HITS is an investor.

JT: He sold out!

also tend to blame others for their losses, which they are unwilling to realise unless forced to. Watch this space.

JT: Sounds like our HITS to me!

[jtidsbadly] 15/6/2022 13:32

Do you really not understand, 3Put? HITS is an investor. I fiddle about in the equity options market, where the returns can be very high, and the losses much quicker in materialising. There are certain barriers to participation in options, which preclude mug punters on the whole. Mug punters are the kind of people who post join-the-dots outlines of rockets, use terms such as “boom” and refer to the activities of market makers as if they have a clue what they’re talking about. There are many other indicators. They also tend to blame others for their losses, which they are unwilling to realise unless forced to. Watch this space.

[3put] 15/6/2022 13:14

What market do you normally invest on? What makes a mug punter? Hits sold at 1p and its now 1.25p , does that make him a mug punter ?

[jtidsbadly] 15/6/2022 13:06

I’ve never seen a company evade answering questions the way this one does, though I’m relatively new to AIM. Institutional investors would keep asking the question until it was properly answered. Mug punters and shills haven't got the wit or the incentive, respectively, to do so.

[3put] 15/6/2022 13:00

The project might not have gone the way you hoped but you can't say they have dodged a question with a straight face. I've never seen a company answer so many investor questions.

[jtidsbadly] 15/6/2022 12:57

3Put: my post assumed no revenue from a sidetrack, for whatever reason. If the sidetrack is a dud or very late, Anguish will still, on its forecasts, be producing 5mmscfd. That’s less than the hedged volume from October but the hedge from October pays them 52.05p per therm, so the revenue from that will defray the cost of the marginal hedge contract production shortfall, unless gas goes to a very high price. It won’t be enough to meet their debt service etc. costs though, so you could expect more fund raisings just to keep the corporate head above water.

We still don’t know if they can drill a sidetrack while producing gas. They’ve side-stepped the question every time. They’ve also dodged that question on regulatory permissions. Is “first gas” gas for sale to Shell, flowing into the pipeline? Or is it the first whiff of gas, after which the HSE and NG people have to check it all? As usual, the term is not defined and the issue is obfuscated.

[3put] 15/6/2022 12:36

they will be earning enough to be able to make at least some money, won't they

JT: 'Some money', you mean over 130 million in 3 years. What does a lot of money look like ?

[3put] 15/6/2022 12:27

So we all agree - Assuming successful sidetrack production over 3years at best 3M therms /month = 36months x 3M = 108M therms. Total hedged volume is 52.125M therms from which Angus will receive circa 40p/therm - ie £21M. At £2/therm ( probably more) Angus will receive (108M - 52.125M) x £2 = £111.75M plus that £21M from hedging = grand total £132.75M.

[jtidsbadly] 15/6/2022 12:15

HITS: while, obviously, I agree with your conclusions, there’s a couple of areas I’d like to be clear on.

First, re the hedges, it’s 1.125mm therms from July to September inclusive, (rising to 1.75mm therms in October, when the contract price rises to 52.05p/therm).So they may have a few days’ leeway next month if it’s not producing on 1 July. Second, from 1 October, assuming the existing wells produce as predicted, Anguish will be getting 52.05p. per therm from the hedge contracts, on 1.75mm therms. Unless they fall very short of the planned production figures for the two wells, or unless the price of gas goes very much higher, they will be earning enough to be able to make at least some money, won't they?

[1347] 15/6/2022 12:02

No matter how much revenue they end up generating, ordinary shareholders won't see much out of it, those that get the discounted placings, equity kickbacks, interest and royalty payments and the counter parties to the hedges are the ones that will take much of the cream, oh plus the BoD and ther attractive salaries and options. Anyone that held shares when Lucan arrived has seen pretty much 90% of the value wiped out, I reckon the best they will do is get it back to say 80% loss.

[headinthesand] 15/6/2022 11:46

Noel's figures are kind of accurate.

Firstly, futures gas pricing isn't averaging at the £2.00 per therm mark throughout the three years at the moment.

Secondly, the total volume hedged is actually 52.375 million therms over the 3 years.

Thirdly, even if successful, there's no way that a sidetrack can kick in as of month 1 of 36. That's in 15 days' time and the estimate for first spud isn't until last week July. So, month 4, maybe.

However, it is fair to say that if literally everything that George hopes for comes to pass when he hopes it will come to pass, then ANGS will end up with in excess of £100 million of gross revenue out of Saltfleetby over the next three years.

NB that's gross revenue. Out of that, they'll need to pay £14 million (loan) plus £6.25 million (acquisition cost) plus £1.4 million (Knowe) plus 3 years of opex costs (£6 million? £9 million?), plus the 8% revenue override due to the lenders once the loan's been paid back (which would amount to somewhere around £5 million per annum) from some future point.

It's really not going to be anything like a £50m dividend, even in the most utopian case.

As to SP? Well there'll be over 2.5 billion shares in issue by the end of this month, so even very best case with everything (for once) going exactly to plan and (for once) as promised and hoped for, I can't see more than 4p max.

But this is all moot. First George needs to deliver 1.5 million monthly therms out of the two existing wells, then double that with a successful sidetrack by Oct 1st. Because without that successful sidetrack, Saltfleetby is set to be nett loss-making for ANGS over the next three years.

[3put] 15/6/2022 11:30

132m over 3 years could mean 50m dividend.

[3put] 15/6/2022 11:29

Agree

JT: Almost everyone, tell us more?

[3put] 15/6/2022 11:28

Assuming successful sidetrack production over 3years at best 3M therms /month = 36months x 3M = 108M therms. Total hedged volume is 52.125M therms from which Angus will receive circa 40p/therm - ie £21M. At £2/therm ( probably more) Angus will receive (108M - 52.125M) x £2 = £111.75M plus that £21M from hedging = grand total £132.75M.

[jtidsbadly] 15/6/2022 11:14

noelpbz: yes, everyone (almost!) on here accepts that, if all these things happen on schedule and production is as planned, the returns in this will be high. Though your figures are all turnover, not profit. And you need to factor in the money owed to Forum and the 8% of revenue royalty to the Lenders, on top of the debt service charges and repayment of the £12mm. And they can’t use their existing tax losses, under the proposed new regulations. Then there’s the g&a expenses, which will be vastly higher than in previous years. The earnings per share won’t justify much more than a 4-5p. share price, which is still half the level when the current Interim MD took the job (when the shares in issue were just over 400mm, against today’s 2.5bn.-odd). And the earnings start to tail off from 2026, after which they’ll start worrying about the massive abandonment liability they've recently acquired. And investors will be concerned about the uses to which these bozos intend to put Anguish’s new-found wealth. Not to mention the bigger Board salaries which they will naturally be able to justify.

All this assumes that these bozos are capable of doing something on time and anywhere near the budget. And that they’ll get the remaining permissions promptly.