Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[bomfin] 21/3/2022 13:30

That`s a higher production figure than the one you gave previously gaffer73 ? Considering buying in. I remember Saltfleetby way back when I had an investment in Roc oil. It`s a big reservoir and I`d be surprised if they can`t squeeze some more out of it. Especially with higher gas prices making the workovers etc worthwhile. Pressure build up could surprise on the upside if anything but that`s not worth much if they are over hedged. Have to weigh this up. Thanks for the help.

[gaffer73] 21/3/2022 13:13

No, the June figure is based on projected production without the sidetrack. 5.7mmscf x 10283 x £4 x 30 days. Plus some condensate sales. Obviously revenue is wholly dependant on flow rates and gas prices.

[jtidsbadly] 21/3/2022 13:06

Thanks, 1347.

[sincero1] 21/3/2022 13:03

resident grey old disingenuous crayon eaters are now noise and acoustic experts just so they can be negative .... what bellends ....

[bomfin] 21/3/2022 12:56

So, Thanks for the help here. Are those projections based on a successful sidetrack before going on production? Do they have funds to do that? How long to drill? Again, Any info appreciated.

[1347] 21/3/2022 12:50

HITS Yes I noticed that statement and commented on it at the time, it's yet another example of their disingenuity, well unless the contract actually states that they are going to differentiate between gas from one well as opposed to another, somehow I doubt that.

JT It's the responsibility of the operator to monitor the site, there are schedules in the permits about what they have to do. I'm not sure if the EA or LPA do spot checks or just react to any complaints made.

[jtidsbadly] 21/3/2022 12:49

JA51: it’s the enforcement aspect that interests me. What happened at that other site? Did they have to cease operations? It seems to me that an investment in extra acoustic barriers ought to resolve a noise issue and it’s unlikely that the EA decision will be different from the recommendation re noise that they made to LCC.

[ja51oiler] 21/3/2022 12:40

JT

Not if they can keep it below 37DB at night!

However, we are yet to see the EA "DRAFT" decision yet so who knows! They had the same limit in place previously for a much smaller scale operation and had complaints!

[headinthesand] 21/3/2022 12:39

This statement from ANGS is teetering on the brink of being misleading:-

"...assuming we succeed in obtaining target production from the side track, itself 100% unhedged).

That can only be true if the production volumes from existing wells is sufficient to meet the hedged volumes. And for that to be the case, from Oct 22 onwards the existing wells will have to produce 30% more than they averaged over their last 12 months of unimpeded operation.

Okay, I know ANGS is hoping for a pressure build-up, but one that increases production levels by 30%+? That is one hell of an assumption - and the statement that all sidetrack production would be unhedged is at the very best entirely unknowable at this stage. It is certainly not categorically true, despite ANGS wanting it to seem this way.

[bomfin] 21/3/2022 12:25

So 3put. I don`t see how that can make £7.2 million gross revenues. It looks like about 850 boe/day gross. Even at today`s forward price that might get to £3 million gross revenues. £1.5 million net to Angus in June. Not bad at all if we look at market cap but it`s not what he said though is it?

[jtidsbadly] 21/3/2022 12:22

JA51: thanks and apologies, my mistake. Reading the AECOM report, you wouldn't think that noise would present a problem, would you?

[bomfin] 21/3/2022 12:20

Thanks gaffer73

[bomfin] 21/3/2022 12:18

Thanks 3put. I`ll do the calculations. Thanks for sharing your research.

[ja51oiler] 21/3/2022 12:00

JT
No. Fans/coolers are not listed on the Aecom noise report.

Joule-Thomson skid Point source (dimensionless) 86.8 97.8 n/a
Aggreko 500 kW Diesel gen
package 5.2 1.9 2.6 73.0 93.3 76.6
Aggreko 500 kW Diesel gen
package 5.2 1.9 2.6 73.0 93.3 76.6
CAT 3512E Gas gen package 3.1 2.3 2.6 85.0 104.5 89.1
CAT 3512E Gas gen package 3.1 2.3 2.6 85.0 104.5 89.1
Caterpillar G3516 Compression
package 34 1.7 1.7 85.0 103.4 89.8
Caterpillar G3516 Compression
package 34 1.7 1.7 85.0 103.4 89.8
Caterpillar G3516 Compression
package 34 1.7 1.7 85.0 103.4 89.8
Ground Flare Point source (dimensionless) 70.0 81.0 n/a

[jtidsbadly] 21/3/2022 11:37

The fans were one of the items listed as potentially noisy, if I remember right. I’ve no idea how often the EA checks its noise monitors or whether they would stop Poundland operations if the limits are exceeded. Presumably this would be part of the plant commissioning.

[ja51oiler] 21/3/2022 11:29

JT
I think it was noise modeling that the EA had asked for. The Aecom document gave a list of equipment and expected DB from what I recall.
only the plans seem to have changed again looking at the Twitter pictures? The compressor package now seems to be contained in its own skid if it interpreting it correctly. I cant recall the coolers being on that list either. That's an awful lot of cooling fans located on the roofs. and it's going to get awfully hot in the compressor rooms now also! how are they planning to cool them?

[3put] 21/3/2022 11:24

Last update Bomfin

George Lucan, CEO, commented:

"The focus is now away from skid delivery to installation with the aim of having the site ready for commissioning during April and producing during May. The present gas price forward curve shows very high average prices of over 400 pence per therm for 2022.

In fact, gross production, of which we have a 51% share, solely from the existing wells and which is wholly unhedged for the month of June, is expected to yield 1.5 million therms or gross revenue of £7.2 million at today's forward price for that month alone.

Gross production solely from the side-track, should it be successful, is again wholly unhedged for the remainder of the year and is expected to yield a further 1.5 million therms each month of which Angus share is 51%.

The forward curve remains very high and seems likely to remain high this year and the company is more than anyone else acutely conscious of the need to preserve our timeline in order to provide value to shareholders whether through revenue sales or corporate action."

[jtidsbadly] 21/3/2022 10:53

Re EA approval, it seems to depend principally on the noise issue. The EA gave advice to LCC on the issue, including a recommended wording re enforceable noise limits. The reason that the EA hasn’t given its own approval may possibly be the absence to date of satisfactory responses to their questions, as discussed in an update a few months ago. You’d think they could merely use the same wording as they recommended to LCC though, wouldn’t you, with the assurance that they’d monitor noise on a very regular basis once the plant is operating?

[gaffer73] 21/3/2022 10:52

3.34mmscf until October then 5.2mmscf reducing over 3 year's

[bomfin] 21/3/2022 10:36

Numbers please.
They say approximately half of conservative projections. Anyone got the figures? Thanks gaffer73 though.

[gaffer73] 21/3/2022 10:30

Approximately 70% dropping to 50% with a successful sidetrack.

[bomfin] 21/3/2022 10:26

How much of production is hedged please on a daily basis ?

[3put] 21/3/2022 09:54

We would need to know the early settlement fee. They will make more than 25m Hits

[headinthesand] 21/3/2022 09:02

Gaffer, quite correct. As has been pointed out, those hedges are worth an absolute fortune to those on the other side. Why would they agree to letting ANGS out of the hedge contracts for less than the c. £25 million that it looks like they'll make?