Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ja51oiler] 30/8/2021 12:59

Just wait for the 3P post from....woof woof!

That's usually the signal for the start of a "Pump and Dump" from what I see!!

[jtidsbadly] 30/8/2021 12:53

1347: “onerous”; is generous re the loan terms. “Ruinous”; is likely to prove closer to the mark, I think. If Michael is to get his 2.4p, we’ll all have to reverse our stance very soon and pump this, before it’s too late. The writing has been on the wall here for nearly a year. It’s just that there’s quite a lot of mugs invested in this who can’t read it.

What’s Frazer Lang going to do? He must have the wind up. It’s about time we had a ramp, one is overdue. I'm sure the mug contributors to the other site will back one more, what?

[ja51oiler] 30/8/2021 12:46

JT.

I actually left the pipeline cost out of the circa £14million calculation, so yes there may be another £700k plus any more for the significant delays to add to it.

Regarding the Knowe CLN. I understand why some call them death spiral finance now!

"The warrants are exercisable at the lower of 1.3 pence or a 30% premium to the Conversion Price."

I am reading it that Angus must pay back the £1.4 million by Feb next year )meaning That would be accompanied by the warrants being issued), Or Knowe can convert at 0.9 in April. I cant see how they can afford this given the company supplied figures and calculations above? As you say they are prevented from taking any further loans.
The only option I can see is a placing before Feb next. If they are forced to do a placing at say 0.5p (A reasonable assumption from Fridays closing price and historic data) to pay the loan, can the warrants then be converted at 0.65p? that's an awful lot of new shares that could come onto the market. Then you have the last lot from the £1 million placings earlier in the year.
(all be it at a much higher price).

Re Saltfeetby. I will take the companies own guidance on timescales on production. Not from the Recent RNS but from the investor presentation from Feb this year. The dates are a year out now but the timelines are spookily similar. They suggest a May date for first gas. Then you have a 16week sidetrack program to add.

[1347] 30/8/2021 12:20

JT - Ah yes, 3 cards, Lidsey, Brockham, Balcombe shuffle and place face down and try and pick a winner. Good luck...

[1347] 30/8/2021 12:15

JA I don't know what they'll do, maybe prepare the life boats rather than go down with the ship? As I've said before more twists and turns than Snake Pass, and less enjoyable to navigate. I had hoped a year or so ago that with Balcombe EWT and Poundland heading towards first gas and with better quality ramping from the ocebot etc. that the share price would recover sufficiciently for me head towards the door. However the time and costs being so far out at Poundland (which were material in my view yet not disclosed to market for quite some time)and the subsequent and onerous loan have stymied that for a while, maybe for good. Looking at the estimated costs for Poundland and almost £200 k per month G&A costs, as per last interims they won't have much free cash available that's for sure.

[jtidsbadly] 30/8/2021 12:06

JA51: I’m not sure about the pipeline cost. They’d already spent £1.1mm. on it, so the remaining forecast cost was presumably another £0.7mm. It then took almost four months, which is three months longer than forecast, so presumably that £0.7mm. was blown out.

I think you’re underestimating g&a expenses. The Poundland site cost Wingas £1.8mm per year to staff etc. Anguish thinks they can do it for £1mm., but that's an extra unbudgeted cost. They must be hiring people soon for this, they’ll need training.

My understanding of the Knowe loan is that it’s a straightforward convertible: so it can be converted at Knowe’s option, or they can require repayment. Is this understanding incorrect?

Then there’s the cost of legal action re Gneiss, about which it’s gone quiet, what?

Re Knowe, my back of envelope calculation suggests that if they can convert at 0.6p, Knowe will be close to the 30% limit. This assumes there’s no more placings before April, which is unlikely to be the case. The only recourse left to Anguish is the share market, loans are precluded by the loan agreement.

Other than these aspects, I agree completely with your analysis.

1347: yes, I agree about Lidsey and Brockham, which are back in the frame to avoid balance sheet provisions and as a smokescreen to confuse the mug punters. In any case, the loan terms preclude use of the proceeds for the Weald “assets” so how can they do anything at any of them? Geothermal energy is so far into the future vs. Anguish’s ability to keep its corporate head above water as to be merely another smokescreen.

Then there's the latest delay to the date for the start of production - and the hedges. The part-time Interim MD is not known for adopting a conservative stance when it comes to timetables, what? It will be very surprising if gas starts to flow (in the pipeline) in February.

Any placing, it seems to me, will merely provide enough cash to keep the old decanter topped up, what? It all resembles the classic Three Card Trick.

[ja51oiler] 30/8/2021 11:35

Mmmm this looks like a catch 22 situation here! If they choose to repay at 1p they are going to need a placing or another CLN and have to issue those warrants. As you say who is going to want any part of that? If they don't, at present Knowe is seriously out of pocket.....but they hold all the cards....What would you do in their situation?

"Angus Energy plc (AIM: ANGS) is pleased to announce that it has today issued a 4% per annum £1,400,000 Convertible Loan Note (the "New Loan Note") to Knowe Properties Limited, a significant shareholder in the Company. The New Loan Note is unsecured and is convertible at maturity after two years at the lower of (a) £0.01; or (b) if there is an issue of Shares or options in respect of Shares (excluding options granted to directors, managers or employees) by way of a single or directly related offer to the public with an aggregate subscription amount of £250,000 or more made without the prior written approval of the Noteholder then the price attaching to the lowest of those issues (the "Conversion Price").

Alternatively, and at the Company's option, the Loan Note is repayable in part or whole at any time up to two months before maturity with an accompanying grant of warrants equal to the face value of the amount repaid. The warrants are exercisable at the lower of 1.3 pence or a 30% premium to the Conversion Price. Additionally, the Company has undertaken not to issue options to directors or staff at an exercise price below £0.01 during the term of the New Loan Note.

[ja51oiler] 30/8/2021 11:22

1347...Yes, an interesting couple of weeks/months coming up.
If they are forced to take a heavily discounted placing where does that leave Knowe? wouldn't they be over the 30% ownership threshold in theory and be forced to launch a takeover bid? Or would they have to sell the shares over 30% straight away?...not sure how that would work?...... I'll have another read of the RNS.

[1347] 30/8/2021 11:01

I think they'll struggle to get a placing away, it'll need a large discount, it's clear it will have to be for the other 'assets', Lidsey and Brockham are dead ducks as far as I'm concerned and they can't progess Balcombe until after a successful planning appeal. Who wants to contribute towards that scenario?

I expect they are hoping that the EA approve the water injection at Brockham, which even if they do will almost certainly be conditional and require significant upgrade to the site to meet the latest groundwater requirements. However at least they'll have something for ocebot and others to ramp around. However if the EA refuse and the licence expires and the OGA slap an abandonment notice on Brockham, well then it gets interesting doesn't it?

[ja51oiler] 30/8/2021 10:04

From the 23rd September RNS

------------------------------


The proceeds of the Proposed Debt Funding will be used as to:

o £1.8 million toward pipeline installation and connection to the National Transmission System of which £1.1 million has been spent to date;

o £5.7 million toward processing facilities;

o £1.6 million toward site preparation, planning and contingencies;

o £2.4 million toward a reserve for drilling the planned 2021 sidetrack of an existing well on the Field; and

o £1.5 million toward an abandonment reserve for the Field.

So what do we know for sure....The company have Zero income at present and by all the accounts available go through £2.5m a year cash burn.

We know in March next year they will have burnt at least £2.5m cash
We know the pipeline costs will be increased as they haven't even finished yet.
We know the plant and equipment is on or below budget confirmed recently...£5.7m
We know the sidetrack is circa £2.4m
We know the £1.6 million toward site preparation is likely short.
The half-yearly showed they owed £1.5m
Take off the £300k arrangement fee and that's.......give or take £14 million and that doesn't include the £1.5 toward the abandonment they list!!! Personally, I think there is likely to be £4/5 million added to the de/comm also.

Finally, they have the Knowe £1.4 plus interest loan to pay in April. At present that can be converted at 0.9. I cant see Mr. Manclark being happy about that!

They also recently passed resolutions available from Companies house website regarding placings "Inter Alia"

As JT points out they also have to pay the first installment of the £12 million loan in June/July

Not sure when, but there is massive dilution coming here one way or another. just a question of at what price.

[jtidsbadly] 29/8/2021 23:36

UJ9: that’s a good question. If Anguish use part of the £12mm. for g&a expenses, it’s hard to see how they’ll be able to finance the completion of the project. The money’s got to come from somewhere. But they’ve also got £1.456mm to find in April to repay Knowe and £4.44mm+ to pay the interest and first instalment of the loan repayment in early June. They’ll need to be producing gas as early as possible in the new year to meet these payments, never mind g&a expenses. I’m not surprised if people are predicting another placing. It’s hard to make the sums add up without one, or two. They’ll want the share price up a bit first, won’t they, if they can manage it?

[ultimatejustice9] 29/8/2021 18:00

Quite a bit of talk regarding a fund raise on telegram. I don't think they would need it given they have got 12m. Can the 12m be used for everyday costs ?

[ultimatejustice9] 27/8/2021 19:47

Ok, I take that back.

[jtidsbadly] 27/8/2021 19:37

UJ9: perhaps, but I’m not a de-ramper.

[ultimatejustice9] 27/8/2021 19:25

That's a bit mean! Looks like another one with a terrible record is about to go. Few tweets saying UJO is going under. Makes me very nervous to invest back in angs atm

[jtidsbadly] 27/8/2021 17:49

With respect, UJ9, it seems to me that one doesn’t have to be very clever to ask questions you hadn’t thought of. I’m pointing out this hedge issue because it seems important for shareholders here and it’s slipped, so far, under the radar. I think that weak management, particularly where they are economical with the actualité, should have their shortcomings pointed out. The Anguish Board seems to me to stand out as an egregious example of poor management, even in the context of AIM.

I haven’t lost any money in this as things stand. I’d “let go” now.

[jtidsbadly] 27/8/2021 17:18

If it’s options or futures, as I understand it, they need marking to market and you’d find out next March, when the annual accounts should be published. Otherwise, if it’s forwards of some kind, you probably won't know until the effects on profits have to be revealed, which would make it not before the end of July 2022.

I don’t ask shareholder questions but I’d ask about this if I did.

[ultimatejustice9] 27/8/2021 17:16

I have a couple of questions for you Jtidsbadly... You are a very cleaver de-ramper, you ask difficult questions that I had not thought of. You point our discrepancies that the average punter would not look out for. But why? I don't believe you are a LTH here ,I would be disappointed if it turned out you were at some point and just bitter. I believe you are betting against the share price potentially with a few others. Am I warm? I don't blame you as its been a total sh*t show here for years. Can you let me know your motives for posting & at what price do you let go?

[ultimatejustice9] 27/8/2021 17:07

Where would this cost be recorded ?

[jtidsbadly] 27/8/2021 16:36

Well, the most important variable is the volume of gas they manage to produce. The greater the production deficit vs. forecast, the larger the potential loss. I think it’s unlikely the hedges are options, they would have been very expensive and you pay for them upfront.

[1347] 27/8/2021 16:05

It's 1347 actually and yes but IF we don't know the type and the terms we don't know what has to be marked to market do we. I repeat until and unless we can remove the IF word in there the impact cannot be quantified other than that being forced to hedge at 43p is not good for shareholders if gas prices remain high.

[jtidsbadly] 27/8/2021 15:29

gkb: it doesn’t matter what they are. Options and futures have to be marked to market, so we’ll know earlier if they’re the chosen hedge medium, rather than forwards/swaps. Options would have cost them a lot upfront, I doubt they’re those. If they’re anything else, my remarks apply - they’ll lose their shirts if the gas price stays anywhere near where it is now and Anguish fail to produce 70% of their expected volumes. This is far more important than the current discussion elsewhere about abandonment provisions.

[1347] 27/8/2021 15:01

No both wrong, there is in fact a far more logical reason, which is to try and recover some misjudged 'investment' in Anguish Energy by trading spikes, I have mentioned this before.

Hardly my fault if the quality of management and the ramping here and elsewhere is of such poor quality that they can't get the share price to stagger over the last placing price for long enough to gain any momentum.

By the way, it's waste of time trying to predict what will happen based on future gas prices as we don't know the type and the terms of any futures/swaps/options, other than the scant information in the RNS, I've also mentioned this before.

[sincero1] 27/8/2021 14:47

or people are buying and holding because jtisadly and the other resident window lickers have been proven to be trying their best to discourage people with negative supposition and scaremongering all of which has transpired to be untrue...and the recent positive news on financing , planning, hires, equipment, mercuria , shell is all undeniable .. shall i post jtisadly's recent comments again.? . yeah ...its nice to point and laugh sometimes at the clowns :
5.7.21 "placing this week or next"
8.7.21"another placing or two in the next few months"
9.7.21 "" placing is in the queue and will come once the latest UKOG issue has been digested"
14.7.21 ""I'm expecting two placings this year"
21.5.21 "poor angus 0.20 soon" 12+ weeks ago.
" share price into the sixties shortly " 12+ weeks ago.
"oga approval doubt" .
" financing doubt" .
" running out of money " weekly prediction for last 6 months.
" 0.15 by end of year".
" placing soon " daily prediction for last 6 months.
"its a pump & dump" - it wasn't.
"gas to Shell at current prices from New Year until July in decent volumes. I' put the chances of that at about 1%"
and todays addition to his roll call of shame:
"you should be pleased - that 0.70p re-entry level of yours is just round the corner.