Anglo American Share Discussion Threads

[1knocker] 11/7/2024 10:32

Grosvenor seems prone to fires. The last one took the mine out of production for about a year. Operationally, AAL seems either weak or accident prone. Add that to its unfocussed collection of assets and it seems inevitable that it will be taken over /broken up sooner rather than later. The cost and ever growing timespan for developing a new mine make acquisition of producing but sub-optimally managed mines increasingly attractive to the stronger players.

[juliemara] 11/7/2024 10:06

The range, and therefore the value of the BHP offer consistency in terms of % premium.

[ashwani01] 11/7/2024 09:19

What's the link ?

[juliemara] 11/7/2024 07:09

The way the share price is bing manipulated makes me even more certain that they (AAL and BHP) have done a deal.

[cobourg1] 09/7/2024 17:54

This really helped my Anglo holding price today - not! We badly need some positive news.

In other news Anglo have appointed bankers to oversee the Met coal sale. If Anglo are serious about selling the coal mines I doubt they will be enthusiastic about spending a great deal of time and money on getting Grosvenor back into operation. Perhaps it will be thrown in as a "fixer upper" to sweeten a deal.

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"Sharecast News) - Berenberg has repeated its 'sell' rating on Anglo American, saying that the recently announced fire at its Grosvenor metallurgical coal mine in Australia comes at a bad time for the miner, which continues to "struggle operationally".

Anglo said on 1 July that it was forced to suspend production at Grosvenor after a coal gas ignition incident, with operations expected to take "several months" to get back up and running.

Grosvenor is expected to contribute 3.5m tonnes of steelmaking coal to Anglo's 15-17m total in 2024 - though the company said it will update the market with guidance "once more information is available".

In a research report (on Tuesday 9th July), Berenberg highlighted press reports on 8 July citing that the fire appeared to be still burning.

The broker said it see two clear impacts to Anglo's business. "First, there will likely be a cut in coal production guidance, despite a strong H1 at Grosvenor that saw the mine outperform our estimate of 1.7mt, with disclosed H1 production of 2.3mt - we expect full details of the guidance impact to be disclosed in due course," Berenberg said.

"Second, the fire has the potential to frustrate and delay the planned sale of the metallurgical coal business, which is a core part of Anglo's simplification strategy."

The broker pointed to another gas ignition at Grosvenor in May 2020, which caused the mine to be halted for roughly a year, impacting production for 12 to 18 months. As such, it predicts that Grosvenor will be offline "for much of 2025, similar to the 2020 situation", which will reduce next year's metallurgical coal production estimates to 13.8mt compared with the 17-19mt guidance.

"The company continues to struggle operationally, which we think is a key risk to consensus estimates. Management has had difficulty delivering on guidance, which we think it due to the previous management setting overly-optimistic and unachievable targets. We believe that the onus is on management to turn the story around and, without signs of progress, we expect market pressure."

Berenberg has maintained a 2,000 target price for the stock, which was trading broadly flat at 2,415.5p by 1008 BST."

[juliemara] 03/7/2024 13:16

Good to see the Australian media are as bad as Britains!

[cobourg1] 01/7/2024 13:36

From what I can gather:

1. 25% of the Met coal output has been lost for a time. Not only no income but a lot of unwanted expense.

2. It is likely to be 6 months to a year before production can be resumed.
Timing depends on damage to the mine and equipment.

3. This was supposed to be the easiest and quickest asset to sell - that's
now gone by the board, at least for a time.

4. Anglo have already announced a 30% reduction in copper output next year
due to maintenance and refurbishment.

5. Work on Woodsmith has slowed making an income stream further off.

Trying to be optimistic a weakened Anglo is more of a target, but I can see the share price drifting down in the meantime - £22.00?

[theapiarist] 28/6/2024 08:14

Interesting article, Skinny.

Hydrogen Fuel Cells make a lot of sense compared to EVs. Range, charging time, weight - no problem.

The most feasible carbon free option for HGVs etc.

And of course they use Platinum as a catalyst, which Anglo has in spades.

[cobourg1] 24/6/2024 19:23

Trouble at t'pit!

Google NewsNow, Anglo American, it has some news items.

[1knocker] 21/6/2024 11:17

The cost of taking discovery of ore to a productive mine is growing all the time, along with the length of the process. Factor in the uncertainty too, and it is not difficult to see the attractiveness of purchasing a producing mine - or purchasing its owner!

[cobourg1] 19/6/2024 16:23

1. Elliott Investing have a $1 billion stake in Anglo.

2. Elliot specialises in gingering up sleepy managements.

3. Wanblad is under pressure to do something quickly.

4. The easiest and quickest thing to get rid of is the Australian
metallurgical coal. Attractive with no political strings attached, unlike
the diamonds, platinum and fertiliser.

5. The American coal mining giant Peabody has expressed interest
previously.

6. The Australian coal is also of interest to BHP who mine in the same area.

7. Elliot have a stake in both Peabody and BHP.

8. Elliot don't mess about and they didn't buy 5% of Anglo with a view to
losing money. You wouldn't want Elliott as a shareholder.

9. The share price has been rising.


Just saying!

But what the hell do I know, except that Anglo looks like a good bet however it turns out.

[cobourg1] 17/6/2024 20:43

I tried to post a video from the IG Index site but I couldn't get it to work, presumably because it is protected in some way.

The gist was that because it takes about 16 years to develop a copper mine into production the million tons per year of copper from Anglo are still very attractive to BHP (and others), so BHP could be back in five months time, especially as the rationalising measures which Anglo are taking will make a takeover simpler and more attractive. The interviewee also thought that five to ten percent on the last offer price wouldn't be off putting for BHP, what they want is the ore. We also should remember that if there is another bid BHP are allowed to get back in immediately.

The multi-analyst consensus target is for about £29 pounds per share, so presumably they are expecting the takeover to resume or Anglo to be successful in boosting the share price, which I personally am doubtful about, but then I'm a pessimistic old sod.

But you all know this already, don't you? Perhaps somebody doesn't.

[zam1] 17/6/2024 10:15

Minors are slowly but surely gradually heading all way down back to where they were before the bidding hype.

[cobourg1] 14/6/2024 15:00

Probably why Anglo went up today, (from Bloomberg.)


South African stocks rallied and the rand gained, defying the global selloff in risk assets, as investors cheered an agreement between rival political parties to back the reelection of Cyril Ramaphosa as president.

The deal sets the stage for a broad government alliance led by the African National Congress and the business-friendly Democratic Alliance, following an election in which the ANC lost its outright majority for the first time since 1994.

“Such a coalition would be market-friendly and rand-positive,”; said Yeon Jin Kim, an emerging-market analyst at Credit Agricole, in a note to clients. “In the medium term, we believe there could be more upside for the rand, provided key reforms are announced and implemented.”

The FTSE JSE Africa All Share Index climbed as much as 1.6%, the most in seven weeks, before paring the advance. A gauge of banking stocks rallied the most in almost four years to a record high.

The rand gained 0.5% to 18.3513 per dollar as of 1:02 p.m. in Johannesburg, the only emerging-market currency to rise on the day among 24 monitored by Bloomberg. The rand is up 3% this week compared with a 0.4% decline for the MSCI EM Currency Index.

The ANC, which has held power since apartheid ended in 1994, invited all the country’s main parties to join a so-called government of national unity. Former President Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe Party, or MKP, and the Economic Freedom Fighters, — both of which favor land expropriation and the nationalization of mines and banks — declined to participate.

[cobourg1] 13/6/2024 17:50

Interesting!

[cobourg1] 13/6/2024 16:03

Day after day the uncrossing trade and the trades in auction are buys at more than the 4:30 PM closing price.

I take this as a likely sign of stake building in a company that is in play or confidence that the price will rise. I doubt that they are just late reported trades, it's happening too frequently for that.

I remain long.

[juliemara] 12/6/2024 14:27

Nice to have confirmation that things are possibly progressing behind the scenes.