Andrada Mining Share Discussion Threads

[lasata] 08/3/2021 08:12

"Our plan remains to become a large-scale, multi-stream, mining and processing facility, and we look forward to sharing these developments with the market."

[3ootuk] 08/3/2021 07:55

At least running at a steady state allows them to see the real bottlenecks, and monitor the parts of the process that exhibit major wear and tear, to enable maintenance schedules to be coordinated. Lead time of parts is critical here.

It also gives the customers confidence in production, rather than steaming ahead and having unexpected downtime.

A revised 12 month roadmap of improvements expected would be good.

[a2584728] 08/3/2021 07:49

Very upbeat. Shall try and add this morning

[bobbieblock] 08/3/2021 07:47

And the modular expansion. They’ve proven the 80TPH, need to get it up to 120 or even 160 TPH too. Get real cash flow

[3ootuk] 08/3/2021 07:10

Nice little update there.
We need news on tantalum next.

[koolio] 07/3/2021 19:11

Thanks for highlighting that, It’s a nice article and I agree with most of it, I don’t believe that DRC tin is without issue....far from it.
Where did he get that figure of ATM market capitalisation?
Maybe one day we will achieve that price, nice to dream though.
Good luck all.

[bobbieblock] 07/3/2021 18:45

Tin featured in Moneyweek, ATM one of the tips. Wonder if we’ll get a bounce off it?

[bobbieblock] 04/3/2021 15:25

Spot tin holding at 25k. Hope the next update shows the expansion to 120 tonnes per month and tantalum concentrate.

[bobbieblock] 02/3/2021 19:23

Yup, nice and boring to 15p would do nicely....

[ukgeorge] 02/3/2021 16:21

I'm hoping for a couple of more boring months like the last when the share price doubles in value.....

[fullbreakfast] 02/3/2021 15:57

Get bored, buy more ATM, remain bored.

[bobbieblock] 26/2/2021 12:10

Now up above 29.5 despite the bond tantrum. A good sign
hxxps://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/tin-price

[outlawinvestor] 26/2/2021 09:59

I guess time will tell but IMO 4% is not really much of a correction. And time will tell just how much tin's "bull run" is due to true market fundamentals and how much is commodities market beta. I think there is a good chance it is the former as the underlying themes (mass electrification, semiconductor shortage and demand growth from consumer electronics, 5G rollout, massive IoT, etc) will persist for a long while yet.

Perhaps from Mar/Apr industry analysts will feel brave/confident enough to either reaffirm or modify their 2021 average price forecasts. ATM's forecast of $20,000 is looking quite dated!

[wali19] 26/2/2021 09:00

Some correction was expected in Tin after such a bull run. Healthy for the market. The odds are still in favor. The bull rull will resume again next month imo.

[outlawinvestor] 26/2/2021 08:09

Looks like tin prices are finally taking a breather with a 4% drop in Shanghai under heavy volume.

hxxp://www.shfe.com.cn/en/products/Tin/
hxxp://www.shfe.com.cn/statements/tick/sn2104.jpg

[koolio] 24/2/2021 17:23

I bought more today, I’d said that I wouldn’t buy more but I was researching some of the historical RNS and can’t believe that I could still get a few below 5p so...
We should have a decent RNS next week fingers crossed.The first quarterly update on the production performance will be made to the market at the beginning of March 2021. The strong performance at Uis has coincided with the tin price hitting new recent highs, breaking through the ceiling of US$23,000 per tonne for the first time since 2014.

[younasm] 24/2/2021 16:41

I've doubled up at 4.85, hopefully a general recovery in these kind of stocks for the next 12-months.On the other hand, it might stop rising having sucked in new buyers :-)

[koolio] 24/2/2021 15:03

Besides the existing 16historic pits there are 180 pegmatite outcrops within 5km.
Every time I watch that presentation I realise how much tin that they are sat on just in Uis.

[74tom] 24/2/2021 12:52

Nope, at least not any that are producing right now. Cornish Metals IPO’d last week & they have a tin mine but it needs £130m spent to dewater it / get it production ready and the JORC had total tin resources of 35k tons, so a third of our current resource. They have a second potential resource which is 3 years away from a PEA. Their market cap is 60% of ours - again shows the value on offer here!

[lasata] 24/2/2021 10:41

74Tom...interesting...thank you.

Are there any other LSE tin stocks?

[74tom] 23/2/2021 23:42

I did notice the negative cash cost but didn't realise that was the reason...

Also just reviewing their presentation from a couple of weeks ago & spotted the following line which really made me sit up;

"Total tonnes of ore reported in the JORC compliant MRE for V1V2 pegmatite body alone is greater than that reported for the historic reserve estimate over 16 historic pegmatite bodies"

The presentation link may have already been posted but if not it's here for newbies;

The process flow diagram on P20 is a classic example of how transparent these guys are, brilliant stuff.

[bobbieblock] 23/2/2021 20:04

74tom - that’s at negative cash cost if they get the planned tantalum and lithium production too

[koolio] 23/2/2021 17:22

Nice post 74tom. I totally agree with your views, only a week to wait for the update on production and progress. I only started buying here in the 2nd half of last year and slowly building a decent holding. As you said looks to be right in the sweet spot. They have delivered on all of their promises early and give huge confidence that will achieve 100M revenue within 4 years and could go much further.

[74tom] 23/2/2021 15:38

Spurred on by the rising tin price, I've crunched the numbers on ATM today. I've been aware of their scale up for some time, but never actually doing the groundwork to see how they were actually getting on. Very very impressed by their communication to the market. It is very transparent, informative & allows you to piece together a heck of a lot about their operation.

I'd say the key RNS to read is that of 16/06/20, as it contains detailed information around the four phase expansion plan. As per that RNS, the current capacity is as below;

"Stage I of the Phase 1 pilot plant envisages Run-Of-Mine ("ROM") ore crushed and beneficiated in a processing plant designed for a capacity of 566,400 tonnes per annum, to produce 787 tonnes of tin concentrate and 40 tonnes of tantalum concentrate."

Of particular interest are the figures provided for NPV for the phased expansion which include assumptions on tin price and calculate the first stage IRR. 2021 tin price was estimated as averaging 21k, with between 21-24k for the next 3 years. This gave an IRR or 60%. But increase tin prices 20% and the IRR rockets to 79%. At the current spot rate of 29k we are 38% above their 2021 assumptions...

In terms of revenue potential, half year to 31st Aug 2020 produced £1.1m. Now that full phase 1 ramp up has occurred along with increasing prices, in H2 2020 I expect revenues to come in between £4-4.2m. However, at current price & pilot nameplate production of 45t per month, we are looking at £1m a month revenue. Cash cost is noted as being $13900/T, so gross margin should be excellent.

Clearly the timing of increased production + price explosion in tin is potentially transformational for their future plans, as free cash flow will be significant at current levels and allow them to fast forward improvements. This will in turn create a virtuous cycle of increasing production = more revenue = more investment. They are right in the sweet spot.

The ultimate phase 2 goal of 5000T tin production per annum is of course a few years off, but the fact that at current prices that would generate $145m of revenue must surely help to re-rate ATM up towards a minimum of a £100m cap pending further progress. It certainly feels like a nailed on buy at 5p.

As always, do your own research & no investment advice is intended!

[lasata] 23/2/2021 10:04

Outlaw....interesting article.

Tin rising again today.

What tonnage do ATM produce annually?
Have they previously hedged any of this tonnage?