Andrada Mining Share Discussion Threads

[wali19] 26/2/2021 09:00

Some correction was expected in Tin after such a bull run. Healthy for the market. The odds are still in favor. The bull rull will resume again next month imo.

[outlawinvestor] 26/2/2021 08:09

Looks like tin prices are finally taking a breather with a 4% drop in Shanghai under heavy volume.

hxxp://www.shfe.com.cn/en/products/Tin/
hxxp://www.shfe.com.cn/statements/tick/sn2104.jpg

[koolio] 24/2/2021 17:23

I bought more today, I’d said that I wouldn’t buy more but I was researching some of the historical RNS and can’t believe that I could still get a few below 5p so...
We should have a decent RNS next week fingers crossed.The first quarterly update on the production performance will be made to the market at the beginning of March 2021. The strong performance at Uis has coincided with the tin price hitting new recent highs, breaking through the ceiling of US$23,000 per tonne for the first time since 2014.

[younasm] 24/2/2021 16:41

I've doubled up at 4.85, hopefully a general recovery in these kind of stocks for the next 12-months.On the other hand, it might stop rising having sucked in new buyers :-)

[koolio] 24/2/2021 15:03

Besides the existing 16historic pits there are 180 pegmatite outcrops within 5km.
Every time I watch that presentation I realise how much tin that they are sat on just in Uis.

[74tom] 24/2/2021 12:52

Nope, at least not any that are producing right now. Cornish Metals IPO’d last week & they have a tin mine but it needs £130m spent to dewater it / get it production ready and the JORC had total tin resources of 35k tons, so a third of our current resource. They have a second potential resource which is 3 years away from a PEA. Their market cap is 60% of ours - again shows the value on offer here!

[lasata] 24/2/2021 10:41

74Tom...interesting...thank you.

Are there any other LSE tin stocks?

[74tom] 23/2/2021 23:42

I did notice the negative cash cost but didn't realise that was the reason...

Also just reviewing their presentation from a couple of weeks ago & spotted the following line which really made me sit up;

"Total tonnes of ore reported in the JORC compliant MRE for V1V2 pegmatite body alone is greater than that reported for the historic reserve estimate over 16 historic pegmatite bodies"

The presentation link may have already been posted but if not it's here for newbies;

The process flow diagram on P20 is a classic example of how transparent these guys are, brilliant stuff.

[bobbieblock] 23/2/2021 20:04

74tom - that’s at negative cash cost if they get the planned tantalum and lithium production too

[koolio] 23/2/2021 17:22

Nice post 74tom. I totally agree with your views, only a week to wait for the update on production and progress. I only started buying here in the 2nd half of last year and slowly building a decent holding. As you said looks to be right in the sweet spot. They have delivered on all of their promises early and give huge confidence that will achieve 100M revenue within 4 years and could go much further.

[74tom] 23/2/2021 15:38

Spurred on by the rising tin price, I've crunched the numbers on ATM today. I've been aware of their scale up for some time, but never actually doing the groundwork to see how they were actually getting on. Very very impressed by their communication to the market. It is very transparent, informative & allows you to piece together a heck of a lot about their operation.

I'd say the key RNS to read is that of 16/06/20, as it contains detailed information around the four phase expansion plan. As per that RNS, the current capacity is as below;

"Stage I of the Phase 1 pilot plant envisages Run-Of-Mine ("ROM") ore crushed and beneficiated in a processing plant designed for a capacity of 566,400 tonnes per annum, to produce 787 tonnes of tin concentrate and 40 tonnes of tantalum concentrate."

Of particular interest are the figures provided for NPV for the phased expansion which include assumptions on tin price and calculate the first stage IRR. 2021 tin price was estimated as averaging 21k, with between 21-24k for the next 3 years. This gave an IRR or 60%. But increase tin prices 20% and the IRR rockets to 79%. At the current spot rate of 29k we are 38% above their 2021 assumptions...

In terms of revenue potential, half year to 31st Aug 2020 produced £1.1m. Now that full phase 1 ramp up has occurred along with increasing prices, in H2 2020 I expect revenues to come in between £4-4.2m. However, at current price & pilot nameplate production of 45t per month, we are looking at £1m a month revenue. Cash cost is noted as being $13900/T, so gross margin should be excellent.

Clearly the timing of increased production + price explosion in tin is potentially transformational for their future plans, as free cash flow will be significant at current levels and allow them to fast forward improvements. This will in turn create a virtuous cycle of increasing production = more revenue = more investment. They are right in the sweet spot.

The ultimate phase 2 goal of 5000T tin production per annum is of course a few years off, but the fact that at current prices that would generate $145m of revenue must surely help to re-rate ATM up towards a minimum of a £100m cap pending further progress. It certainly feels like a nailed on buy at 5p.

As always, do your own research & no investment advice is intended!

[lasata] 23/2/2021 10:04

Outlaw....interesting article.

Tin rising again today.

What tonnage do ATM produce annually?
Have they previously hedged any of this tonnage?

[lasata] 22/2/2021 13:29

Tin flying.......

[bobbieblock] 22/2/2021 10:47

10p? Roll on 20p. Still be only 160m market cap for all that metal in the ground. Especially if Tin prices keep going like this.

[ukgeorge] 22/2/2021 10:14

roll on 10p :)

[outlawinvestor] 22/2/2021 08:06

Tin continued flying in Shanghai with a sterling start to the week closing above RMB 192,000 - c. 8% up!

Looks like London is trying to keep up - WisdomTree Tin ETF printing offers above $50!

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For anyone interested, Roskill are running a free webinar on Wed 24th titled The evolution of cathode chemistries covering "the global cathode materials industry from 6 perspectives: market, business, technology, economics, patents, and sustainability."

hxxps://roskill.com/event/the-evolution-of-cathode-chemistries/

[outlawinvestor] 19/2/2021 15:24

Pretty sure everyone here is now suffering from tin-price-surge fatigue!

So, apologies for piling on more pain but it appears tin futures contracts are running up over 4% as tracked by Bloomberg Tin Subindex. Familiar story on ShFE currently up over 2% following yesterday's 6%.

[outlawinvestor] 19/2/2021 07:58

ShFE April contract closed above CNY 181,000 - c. 6% up! Serious stuff!!

hxxp://www.shfe.com.cn/statements/tick/sn2104.jpg
hxxps://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3975934/Base-metals/MORNING-VIEW-Base-metals-prices-mostly-firmer-as-weaker-dollar-provides-support.html

At these levels previously uneconomical tin reserves become quite commercial so it's reasonable to expect more mine re-openings and miners exploiting lower grade reserves. But of course it will take some time for new supply to come online.

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Apparently the Texas cold snap halted chip production in the state, threatening to exacerbate the global semiconductor shortage.

[lasata] 18/2/2021 09:55

Outlaw:

Thank you for tin output figures for ATM

[outlawinvestor] 18/2/2021 07:43

Tin futures contracts at the ShFE jumped on reopening. The most active contract (Apr maturity) was up 5.89%. Interestingly the 3 most active contracts (Mar, Apr & May) are in contango.

hxxp://www.shfe.com.cn/statements/tick/sn2104.jpg
hxxp://www.shfe.com.cn/en/products/Tin/

[outlawinvestor] 17/2/2021 17:21

Current nameplate capacity is 60 tonnes of tin concentrate per month targeting 60% contained tin. In November '20 they produced 63.9 tonnes concentrate with 41.6t contained tin (i.e. 65%).



According to Monday's RNS "the strong tin concentrate production levels have been maintained since November 2020."



The upcoming financial year (commencing March) will be their first year of production at full capacity and they are planning to expand capacity by 50%.

[lasata] 17/2/2021 15:58

Tin prices strong again today.

What is the tin annual tin production by ATM?

[lasata] 17/2/2021 15:07

Outlaw...interesting article ...thank you

"The ITA has said it expects global tin output to normalise this year, both in China and in the rest of the world. But it warned that supply would struggle if demand staged the same sort of sharp recovery seen ten years ago after the Global Financial Crisis

All the evidence points to just such a demand rebound and a supply chain that is now working hard to find units in the right place at the right time.

And time is of the essence for anyone short of LME tin because the worst sort of market squeeze is the one when no-one seems to have anything to spare."

[outlawinvestor] 17/2/2021 13:42

LME increases tin market monitoring as rampant spread tightness continues

"The LME has been undertaking enhanced market monitoring for several weeks, and has further options available to ensure continued market orderliness if these are required," an exchange spokeswoman told Fastmarkets in a statement on Tuesday.

"The LME notes current tightness in the tin market. At present, there is no indication that LME pricing has diverged from the underlying physical market," she said.

hxxps://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3975519/Tin/LME-increases-tin-market-monitoring-as-rampant-spread-tightness-continues.html

Should be interesting to see how Shanghai responds when markets reopen tomorrow following the long Lunar New Year holiday.