Amstrad Share Discussion Threads

[jtcod] 13/6/2007 14:15

Well I have to own up that I cannot find the comment I remember. (RE-delays on the HD-PVR.)

AFX had "It [the timetable] has slipped ... There's just been some minor development delays,"

You will have to ignore my comment yesterday. I am still sure I have read that it was to do with waiting for a pending software upgrade to arrive. I even think it mentioned 'coming from Israel' if that makes any sense.

I am so careful not to post anything misleading I can only apologise to readers of this thread.

Darrin
The only Analyst research note I have in my posession was never for public release as it was completed essentially as an internal exercise by a trainee analyst employed by a Merchant bank in the City. Sorry but I would never betray a confidence. I hope you understand.

[guru11] 13/6/2007 14:11

I am not surprised, if she cant research a company that she is going for an interview with. She appears all hot air and no substance.

Back to AMT - Hopefully the results in September will shed a little more information on how well AMT is heading as against the competition.

[weatherman] 13/6/2007 11:41

The girl from the apprentice no longer earns 90K either - see the daily mail from yesterday.

[guru11] 13/6/2007 10:58

Some good posts from JTC and Darrin here, I have been looking at AMT as well.
Its main potential is coming up with devices that the public and tv require ahead of the competition, the share price represents good value. Technology is obviously staying ahead of the competitors. We are all asking the question has the share price gone too low now?

On the Apprentice last night I certainly would not have employed the girl on £90k who left, as she had hardly done any research on Alan Sugar nor Amstrad. They asked what do you know about Alan Sugar and Amstrad, she replied very little.
The problem is a hindsight into interview techniques though.

[darrin1471] 13/6/2007 09:35

JTC: Could you post any Analysts notes you have on AMT. Cheers

[jtcod] 13/6/2007 00:49

Darrin
I will have to go back over everything I read on the company before buying but I know I read somewhere: "the last delay was waiting for a new piece of software to arrive" I believe it was either a straight quote from the company to market or an Analyst note. Will come back to you Darrin on that.

"It still sounds pretty basic stuff"
Most of my long term friends have worked in IT for most their working lives, from Digital to IBM to Compaq to Capita to Hewlett Packard to BT to Dow Jones. This box of tricks just doesn't sound particularly clever to me. That's all. I know it's breaking new ground but it's not that intelligent imo.

"I don't really like techy stuff"
Most the economics of such businesses are inferior to other sectors. It's my investment preference to avoid hardware tech as a norm, however AMT have excellent cash resources and are on a low PE ratio when the cash is stripped out. They also have an impressive 5 year balance sheet progression. The Ben Graham investor in me couldn't resist.;-)

[darrin1471] 12/6/2007 21:23

"I think the last delay was waiting for a new piece of software to arrive, which I put down to an enhanced feature set of sorts."

What is your source?

"It still sounds pretty basic stuff" What technical/business background do you have to make such a statement. It is less than two weeks since you said "I don't really like techy stuff"
What companies other than Pace and Thomson have delivered to market an MPEG-4 HD-DVR for satellite? I can think of only one other.

[jtcod] 12/6/2007 17:45

It still sounds pretty basic stuff to me. I think the last delay was waiting for a new piece of software to arrive, which I put down to an enhanced feature set of sorts. (possibly in league with new Sky requirements)

Anyway, hopefully we will get an RNS soon saying the product is now released.

[darrin1471] 12/6/2007 17:24

PVRs are almost 10 years old and it is only in the last two years that they are becoming mainstream with dozens of unheard of manufacturers. You only have to look at bulletin boards to see how temprimental PVRs can be and how often they break.
HD uses more bandwidth than SD and needs to be broadcast simaltancly using up more valuble bandwidth. MPEG-4 is the new standard and compresses more into the bandwidth. This is less of an issue with cable. AMT don't do cable so lets not go there.
As with any advance in technology, new silicon and software needs to be designed. This technology is a collaboration of many competing companies. Pace and AMT may use different componants to achieve the same goal. First to market, reliablaty and cost all determine how much business you win.
It costs a lot of money to develop a new stb so Sky will be adding other features not yet active to make the stb future proof. For example Sky Anytime that saves part of the hard drive for "push" video on demand, broadband connectivity and wireless or powerline networking.
Sorry but I do not know what makes this complicated to acheive. The evidence and comunications from opperators an suppliers is that it just is.
You may remember the shortages reported by Sky of MPEG-4 HD-PVRs for last years World Cup. DirecTV also had to resedule thier MPEG-4 HD-PVRs last year.
I also mentioned previouly the advent of a single peice of silicon for stbs that will result in a cost fall of 25% per unit this summer. Pace said at their agm last year that this would be included in new manufactured stb designs from January 2007. I do not know if AMT even have access to this technology as they never go into such details.

[jtcod] 12/6/2007 14:34

darrin
Forgive my ignorance but what is so complicated about this technology. I find it hard to accept that this is cutting edge stuff but I'm willing to learn if you know more.

[jtcod] 12/6/2007 14:26

Pagla
JTCod - 2 Jun'07 - 07:49 - 82 of 114 edit


.......................
AMT
Last 4 years shareholders assets improvement +132.7 %
Reported Earnings (including exceptional items) for last 5 years £53.3m
Concensus earnings for 2008 £19m

Market Cap net of £28m Cash = £85m


PIC
Last 4 years shareholders assets depletion (-59 %)
Reported Earnings (including exceptional items) for last 5 years (£94m loss)
Concensus earnings for 2008 £15m

Market Cap net including add back of £6m debt = £218m

Even if we ignore the exceptional items, PIC still hasn't made 1 penny profit for their shareholders over the last 5 years.


JTCod - 2 Jun'07 - 10:49 - 83 of 114 edit


Just been looking at ALBA (ABA) also and their Concensus earnings for 2008 is just £11m and yet the Market Cap including add back of £80m debt = £170m, exactly twice that of Amstrad.

Seems to me that either PIC and ABA are way too high or AMT is way too low.

[darrin1471] 12/6/2007 14:14

Three month trend is lower highs and lower lows.
Only three weeks left until the year end and still no sign of the HD-DVR for Sky. This is a complicated stb for companies with bigger R&D budget than AMT so delays are understandable.

Depending upon the size of the stake you wish to buy I would suggest buying on dips over a 3 to 6 month period. DYOR

[pagla 90] 12/6/2007 13:40

Would like to buy AMT on yield 5%, the share price has been between 135p-140p i would say for the last 3-4months. A lot of consolidation but which way is it going to go, any answers anyone plus on fundamentals what do you guys make of the company? Thanks.

[studhaves] 12/6/2007 12:12

I'm watching for a further drop as well. I think it's well undervalued on performance, just the future thats a bit cloudy.

[brando69] 11/6/2007 17:34

amt now at at a 14 month low. i'm tempted, but don't rule out a fall to 120, so will probably watch for a while from the sidelines.

[darrin1471] 11/6/2007 17:33

Hence Ofcom are looking into it. This is a further delay and the outcome could change stb specifications to AMT and others. If I am correct then AMT have been working on this for stb for 20 months.
Without the Ofcom intervention, I would have expected Sky to launch soon after the release of the football fixtures this week. Setanta and BT have Premiership football coverage next season.

[jtcod] 11/6/2007 17:20

darrin
I bet the competition to sky can't be happy at this development.

[darrin1471] 11/6/2007 17:10

Own as in not an open standard like Freeview but supplied with a Sky logo on it, made by AMT, Pace and/or Thomson probably. Sky may go for a land grab and subsidise it to beat the competition like BT, Tiscali, Orange and Virgin.
Virgin is also launching a Freeview/broadband package using BT cables for areas outside their own cable network.

[toucan] 11/6/2007 16:36

When you say their own stb Darrin do you mean not souced from AMT? I notice a bunch of small sells bringing the price down.

[darrin1471] 11/6/2007 13:26

Toucan: Sky is proposing to launch their own Freeview stb. It will use a different technical standard called MPEG-4. Existing boxes typically use a standard called MPEG-2. MPEG-4 allows more to be broadcast within the same bandwidth. Sky news, Sky sports news, Sky three and a new pay-TV channel would be broadcasted in MPEG-4 using the same space taken up by the existing three channels in MPEG-2.
Existing Freeview stbs would no longer be able to view the Sky channels.
I would speculate that a Sky+ Freeview stb will also have a broadband connection that would give video on demand.

[toucan] 11/6/2007 08:22

Much appreciate your posts Darrin, I do hold but don't understand the technicalities
Thanks, Ken

[darrin1471] 10/6/2007 22:06

Front page in the Financial Mail has the story that Ofcom is expected to give the green light for Sky to launch its MPEG4 Freeview service.



I believe this is the PVR that AMT were referring to in their RNS 19/09/2005

[pierre oreilly] 07/6/2007 10:50

Now you've mentioned it weatherman, it looks so obvious. Up to this point, I thought Simon would get the job, prhaps he should employ them both (with Kristina winning the competition). I think she'd be perfect for that role. How do I place a bet on her winning, and what are the odds?

[weatherman] 07/6/2007 10:37

Will Alan Sugar pick medical sales woman Kristina to develop and run his face care division ?