Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[geoff96] 29/2/2024 14:21

Pretty obvious after todays RNS with the pathetic rise that this is still a huge gamble share.

Without a work programme and a new license this won't be going anywhere.

[greyingsurfer] 29/2/2024 12:28

Pretty good, non committal synopsis. But probably doesn't take us much nearer removing uncertainty in future price moves.

[haideralifool] 29/2/2024 10:53

I uploaded the report on AEX's site onto chatgpt and asked it the following:

"This document contains an assesment of the hydrocarbons in a licence in Tanzania. A UK listed plc (Aminex) has 25% of this licence and its market capitalisation is less than £40m. I am not asking for investment advice, but would like your assessment of the relationship between that market cap and the contents of this report."

This was the answer (FWIW):

The document details the revised resource potential of the Mtwara Licence in Tanzania, operated by ARA Petroleum Tanzania with a 75% interest and Ndovu Resources Limited (a subsidiary of Aminex PLC) holding a 25% interest. Key findings include:

- A significant increase in the estimated gas initially in place (GIIP) to 3.45 TCF, with associated recoverable condensate volumes of approximately 20 MMbbls, nearly doubling the previous estimates.
- The discovery and appraisal efforts have led to a better understanding of the Ntorya Discovery's extent and potential, with exploration revealing a wide range of targets, some of which may allow for targeting multiple levels in a single well.
- The overall Pmean unrisked GIIP potential for the Mtwara Licence is estimated at around 16.4 TCF, with a risked Pmean GIIP potential of approximately 6.9 TCF, suggesting significant exploration upside and potential for substantial near-term onshore production.

Considering Aminex's market capitalisation of less than £40m, the scale of the resources within the Mtwara Licence represents a potentially significant asset relative to the company's valuation. However, the transition from resource potential to confirmed reserves and eventual production, including securing a Development Licence, will be key factors in realising the value of these resources. The substantial increase in estimated resources and the potential for near-term production offer positive prospects for Aminex, but the actual impact on the company's market value will depend on successful development and operational execution.

[haideralifool] 29/2/2024 10:40

Also what do people make of the fact that this does not seem to be the CPR? Since it makes no mention of "RPS Energy Consultants Ltd" (apart from their 2018 report).

[haideralifool] 29/2/2024 10:33

"In a success case, significant volumes of associated condensate are expected to be produced based on the results of Ntorya-1 and Ntorya-2 as shown in Table 1. With expected low processing costs and available existing markets, the condensate could provide a low-cost, high margin supplementary revenue stream for the project."

Page 17

[greyingsurfer] 29/2/2024 09:44

Just think where we and Tanzania might be now if Tullow hadn't thrown their toys out of the pram when they found gas not oil at Likonde 15 years ago! Though probably no viable domestic gas market at the time to be fair.

[greyingsurfer] 29/2/2024 09:40

ARA's presentation on the 3Dhttp://admin.aminex-plc.com/uploadfiles/APT%20-%20Revised%20Resource%20Potential%20-%20Mtwara%20Licence.pdf

[greyingsurfer] 29/2/2024 09:37

Looks possible! They certainly have a share of a very significant asset. A few snakes remain in the grass! The usual delays, for licences, rigs, pipeline etc. And at what stage do Aminex get taken out by Ara? Above here certainly, but I can't see AEX holding 25% in a few years time!

[farmscan] 29/2/2024 09:06

"I also think the potential size of the prize and the scale of the likely investment needed explains the Zubairs' willingness to continue with Aminex. Fundraisings will likely be needed (at multiples of the current sp) to get some of that 16tcf."

A very good point Haider and one which I hadn't thought of. It goes some way to answer my long term niggle as to why AEX were still there.

[rich2006] 29/2/2024 09:01

Ducks are lining up, last piece of the jigsaw is getting the Ntorya Development Licence extension from the Tanzanian authorities signed off.
No company will spend multi $mm development costs upfront without covering this off.

[steelwatch] 29/2/2024 08:54

Is AEX coming in from the cold at long last?

[haideralifool] 29/2/2024 08:42

Yes there is some responsibility to release results as soon as they are received, but there's no accounting for the person who has final sign-off being on annual leave when you need them etc.

I also think the potential size of the prize and the scale of the likely investment needed explains the Zubairs' willingness to continue with Aminex. Fundraisings will likely be needed (at multiples of the current sp) to get some of that 16tcf.

Finally there are national elections in Tanzania next year. So either the government creates a rod for its back by being linked with delays to gas production or it could have a trump card to play at the right time. Whoever wins in 2025 could likely stay in power for a while, given the significant boost to the economy.

[haideralifool] 29/2/2024 08:35

Yes there is some responsibility to release results as soon as they are received, but there's no accounting for the person who has final sign-off being on annual leave when you need them etc.

I also think the potential size of the prize and the scale of the likely investment needed explains the Zubairs' willingness to continue with Aminex. Fundraisings will likely be needed (at multiples of the current sp) to get some of that 16tcf.

[greyingsurfer] 29/2/2024 08:24

Cynic ?Perhaps some truth there. I doubt it surprises many though they are now talking of next year for pipeline completion. And I would assume that they would have released the results as soon as they were given to them. As is their responsibility. You could also perfectly well see the comments on the pipeline and other issues as a straightforward update. The truth may be a bit of both.

[rangenoresources] 29/2/2024 08:17

More delays. What a surprise.

[haideralifool] 29/2/2024 07:31

"Looks like the pipeline is currently planned to be completed by mid 2025, so a good chance of production starting around then."

Do you have the teeniest feeing that this was the news. News of a delay, released on its own and there was a very real risk of a false market since sellers would no doubt be hugely miffed that the company was sitting on transformational news that it did not release.

So it became incumbent to release the seismic results. Still, pleased overall.

[traderinthemaking] 29/2/2024 07:26

Agreed. That's is more than what I was expecting.About to take off so won't see how the market reacts but it will hopefully kick-start the re-rating.TITM

[greyingsurfer] 29/2/2024 07:24

That’s quite a headline:

· 3D seismic improves Ntorya gas field volumetrics and reveals enormous wider potential
· Operator's geomodelling significantly increases Ntorya GIIP to 3.45 Tcf
· 3D seismic reveals considerable upside for Mtwara Licence with total unrisked GIIP of 16.38 Tcf

Looks like the pipeline is currently planned to be completed by mid 2025, so a good chance of production starting around then.

[kwizza] 29/2/2024 07:11

Nice update

[mjapac32] 28/2/2024 16:00

Is that a sea of red I see at your beloved helium one ????

[closetotheedge1] 28/2/2024 15:03

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