Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[haggismchaggis] 04/9/2017 20:08

The SOLO RNS says 10x GIIP, I don't see how N3 can be included in GIIP as it's not been drilled yet, so they can't say if there is any GIIP there.Aminex has upgraded the unrisked resource estimates from 466 billion cubic feet ("bcf") Pmean GIIP to approximately 1,344 bcf Pmean GIIP. This three-fold increase from the estimate provided immediately after the Ntorya-2 well and issued in late April 2017 is based on ongoing technical work which includes; data from the successful Ntorya-2 appraisal well, and subsequent re-evaluation of existing seismic, including reprocessing of select seismic lines and detailed review of all well data associated with the onshore Ruvuma basin. The results of the additional work and the Ntorya-2 well have led to nearly an overall ten-fold increase in the estimated in place resources in the Ntorya gas-condensate field as compared to the estimates made following the original discovery well Ntorya-1.

[edgar222] 04/9/2017 17:33

Well put Warbaby and probably correct

I think there is ambiguity but I am quibbling. Feeling very good about the future here generally.

[edgar222] 04/9/2017 16:27

Ok Peter, back at desk and was going to check but I think the Ritson interview has put this to bed for me.

He makes clear that N3 is in the same reservoir towards the end of the interview.

Still think the earlier info was ambiguous but probably cleared up now

[...]

[edgar222] 04/9/2017 15:15

Ok I will look again later.Genuinely trying to interpret here as opposed to mislead (myself or others!) !

[greyingsurfer] 04/9/2017 15:08

That's not what he is talking about. What that shows is that that part of the fan is thicker, (hence yellow) at the N3 site. That will have been one of the factors in increasing the estimated resource.Peter

[edgar222] 04/9/2017 15:05

PeterAm away from my desk for a while and cant look at p3.Do you see what I mean about p4? N3 is outside red area.

[blackgold00] 04/9/2017 14:57

in the interview, did he say, in a success case you could probably put 5 to 16 wells into that reservoir? 2:50 in. now that would be some development

[greyingsurfer] 04/9/2017 14:56

Anyway, I believe N3 is NOT included in this 1.34TCF and is a separate target.Sorry to say Edgar, that is not true.The Ntorya appraisal area is defined by the appraisal licence. It's clearly shown on the figures in today's presentation. He also talks about the "red area" in the interview. That is clearly the red fan shown on p3 of the presentation, which includes the N3 well site. The appraisal area is the rectangular sided zone that surrounds the fan.That doesn't mean that N3 couldn't increase these estimates, but the figure today is clearly the best guess at a post N3 figure - for the Cretaceous. However, as BG has said, it doesn't cover any Jurassic potential that may be targeted at N3. 1.3 TCF onshore resource, with likely good recovery rates, is a good result. There will almost certainly be further upgrades, but they will most likely come from the other licence blocks - if AEX hangs onto them - or from the Jurassic.Peter

[edgar222] 04/9/2017 14:30

And so I get back to my earlier point, if the geology allows a trebling of the resources does it allow a trebling of the N3 target?

To about 2.5-3TCF ?

Please note I am asking questions not trying to ramp. But I do think this is incredibly exciting.

[talkman2] 04/9/2017 14:29

That's my reading as well . All looks potentially very exciting .

[edgar222] 04/9/2017 14:23

No Warbaby. I draw the opposite inference.

Cutting and pasting from LSE my post to Crusty Pete:

Further to my debate with Crusty earlier, I have looked again at the presentation and listened to the interview several times.

Aaron says that if you look at the presentation the Ntorya appraisal area (that is the area the new resource numbers relates to) is the red area on the map.

If you look at p4 of today's presentation it is clear that the proposed N3 is not in that area. So I conclude it is a separate prospect or at least not included in these new numbers.

However if you look at p5 it is less clear.

Anyway, I believe N3 is NOT included in this 1.34TCF and is a separate target.

[warbaby43] 04/9/2017 14:02

Must be summat in the Aminex DNA regarding the date 4th September and uprating of resources and related presentations - this from RNS dated 4th September 2014:

"The new interpretation, over the Ntorya discovery, shows that Likonde and Ntorya are connected at the Cretaceous level and based on the recent 2014 seismic programme, management estimates of the resources have increased from 1.2 Tcf to 1.9 Tcf (Pmean GIIP)."

This was then followed by a further update a week later on 11th September 2014 with this being the RNS section referred to so frequently on here ever since:

"Aminex today announces that interpretation of the newly acquired seismic data has extended the potential of the Ntorya appraisal area, and management has further increased its resource estimate to 2.3 TCF (Pmean GIIP) by combining the Ntorya discovery with the adjacent Likonde prospect in its Ruvuma PSC in south-eastern Tanzania.

The new interpretation has shown that an additional target exists for an appraisal well that would intersect the Ntorya gas and condensate sands encountered in Ntorya-1 and an extension of the Lower Tertiary sands that were found to have oil and gas shows in the earlier Likonde-1 well to the north. This additional target has further increased the recently announced resource potential from 1.9 to 2.3 Tcf (Pmean GIIP).

The Likonde-1 well penetrated 97 metres of net sand with an average porosity of 17% within a 316 metre gross Lower Tertiary sand sequence with hydrocarbon shows and a deeper Jurassic zone, containing 250 metres of stacked sandstones with extensive oil and gas shows. The deeper sandstones were not logged at the time, as the well was prematurely terminated in the deepest objective at 3,647 metres due to the influx of high pressure gas."

Meanwhile, with regard to today's news and presentation, the uprating to 1.3tcf is for the entire Ntorya gas field, so the is the inference to be drawn that it is not now being anticipated that the N-3 drill is likely to materially add to that figure?

[edgar222] 04/9/2017 13:07

"Seriously undervalued"

Malcy

Aminex
News today from AEX tells us that at Ntorya there has been a further ‘material resource upgrade’ as the unrisked resource estimates have increased from 466 BCF Pmean GIIP to 1.3 TCF of Pmean GIIP and this is for the Ntorya area only. The company is still preparing the gas commercialisation plan which with the Ntorya FDP will be submitted to the TPDC ‘in early September’. Aminex has a significant find here and like a number of other stocks in the sector is seriously undervalued, I am however sure that Jay has plans to monetise his exploration success here and in the adjacent exploration acreage.

[haggismchaggis] 04/9/2017 11:39

Well well well :-D

[edgar222] 04/9/2017 11:17

The pattern in Feb/March and then again recently was a 5-10% rise per day over weeks.

Very happy for that to repeat now.

Unbelievably good news today and confirmed by this interview.

Connected, fan based conventional reservoir much larger than thought that can take 5-16 wells for production.

Exceptional.

[c31161] 04/9/2017 11:17

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1K9G5iHNyEg

[nsk1] 04/9/2017 10:50

Hopefully break 5p today, good news today. It explains last weeks gradual rise.

[haggismchaggis] 04/9/2017 10:22

I'd say yes. Higher reservoir content causing the much higher pressure. The same pressure equation used on N3 would also triple the content.

[blackgold00] 04/9/2017 09:38

"The Company has upgraded its unrisked resource estimates from 466 BCF ('billion Standard Cubic Feet') Pmean GIIP to approximately 1.3 TCF Pmean GIIP."

a'm i understanding this right, this unrisked estimate is what has been proved up by NT-1/2 so far, so can we expect a further increase of the Cretaceous GIIP with NT-3 if successful?

In oil fields what does risked unrisked reserves mean?



Answer:
"Unrisked reserves are those which have already been developed by drilling and production and thus have a very reasonable certainty of being produced. Risked reserves are either probable or possible reserves depending upon the amount of uncertainty involved and basically represent poorly developed or undeveloped oil & gas fields."

[haggismchaggis] 04/9/2017 09:09

Cove territory, but importantly ONSHORE!

[edgar222] 04/9/2017 08:58

Warbaby

And if that is also trebled? One drill with a target of approx. 3TCF ? We are in Cove territory.

[haideralifool] 04/9/2017 08:42

The appointment of Baker Hughes seemed a little odd (time buying exercise?) when it was first announced, but given the options now available it makes eminent sense, prescient even.

[kryptonsnake] 04/9/2017 08:39

So could be a case of use the drill money and fast track N2 through to production instead?

[blackgold00] 04/9/2017 08:35

its looking more likely now that Ntorya is going to be big enough on its own to supply heavy industry the like's of fertilizer or cement.

"Aminex is currently working with io oil & gas consultancy (a joint venture between Baker Hughes, a GE Company, and McDermott) to prepare a gas commercialisation plan which, together with submission of the Ntorya Field development plan to the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation, is expected to be completed in early September."