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[haggismchaggis] 06/9/2017 07:09

Well Pete, there you have direct from AEX, the development plan includes CNG and power and early development, that early development has to be CNG or power because we know the pipeline cannot utilise any new gas sources for a while.

[stinkypeet] 05/9/2017 12:57

Haggis- at the AGM the BOD plainly stated that building a CNG plant from inception to completion would take 12 months minimum and Electricity generation 18 months....

I am not saying NY is a priority but I am suggesting that after NT3 drill (if it happens) it the next thing on the agenda....

Ultimately there is little point arguing about it we just differ. Only time will tell.

[greyingsurfer] 05/9/2017 12:07

There seems to be no mapping in the Jurassic in the new presentation. I don't, at present, assume they don't think there's anything there - just that, as we know analysis is ongoing.

In terms of applying for the development licence etc the Cretaceous resource is what matters now. Maybe that will be all there is - maybe not.

Peter

[ngms27] 05/9/2017 12:02

Peter,

They haven't shown anything mapped in the Jurassic under NT-3 as far as I can tell?

[last throw] 05/9/2017 10:51

Peter

Point well made!

LT

[greyingsurfer] 05/9/2017 10:39

Oil at NT-3 isn't going to happen. Look at the new Basin Model. They now see NT-3 as part of the same Fan not a separate Fan and it's updip of NT-1/2.

I'd agree that it isn't likely, and I've never thought otherwise, but it doesn't rule out something of interest in the Jurassic as far as I can see.

Peter

[ngms27] 05/9/2017 09:25

Oil at NT-3 isn't going to happen. Look at the new Basin Model. They now see NT-3 as part of the same Fan not a separate Fan and it's updip of NT-1/2.

So lets put that one well and truly to bed.

[haggismchaggis] 05/9/2017 09:21

Pete, AEX keep stating they are making plans for Ntorya production ASAP, including options such as CNG (by the truckloads, not BBQ bottles) and/or locally produced power for which they could quickly and easily install GE gas engines.Nyuni is not a priority, Kiliwani is being worked on and we have been advised that AEX believe the flow rate can be fixed and isn't an issue with the well.

[greyingsurfer] 05/9/2017 09:11

I agree with you, Edgar, that a drill this year on Nyuni is very unlikely, and I'd also be fairly sure they will move ahead with N3 - once they've fully analysed the data, and possibly sourced another drill. Further appraisal of the Ntorya Cretaceous to establish just how big the resource is, plus hopefully prove up something underneath, seems like a priority move to me, as it will have a big impact on ways forward to monetisation.

However, they've also been clear that further work at KN, which could include adjacent shallow areas of Nyuni, to increase reserves and production there - feeding into Songo Songo, is high on the list of intended work, and that does make a lot of sense. It should be relatively cheap, and could be potentially fed directly into existing spare capacity. It's not clear, yet, of course what reworking of KN 1 may be planned, but that would obviously come into the picture too.

Peter

[stinkypeet] 05/9/2017 08:42

I understand the logic but AEX is vulnerable with only one income stream coming from KN1 with the declining pressures. NT1 & NT2 revenue streams could be a long way off yet and I do not see the BOD sitting in their hands waiting 12 plus months for another drill post NT3.

And you are right Edgar you won't have read anywhere about a Nyuni drill in 2018 but there was a strong "steer" from JB in conversation at the AGM. ...

A lot has happened since then but I fully expect some action on NY - JB even went so far as to suggest that they would be farming out the drilling to someone with knowledge and experience of near shore drilling using barges (of which there is tremendous over supply at present).

[last throw] 05/9/2017 08:40

haggis/edgar

I fully agree with your sentiments and as regards N3, whilst I believe that it has been factored in, it has to be on a less scientific methodology than N1 & N2 and my serious belief is that we will be pleasantly surprised when the same technical criteria are applied to N3 - just a thought!

By the by, we have a delineated 80 sq k field here with a, presumably known depth and consistent pressure which indicates its contiguity - is there anyone out there can extrapolate from those openly known figures to concur with Aminex's figures or perhaps indicate that they might be on the low side???

I guess the basic question is: what is the standard metric for how much gas is contained in a cubic foot of gas-bearing rock at a certain pressure?

LT

[haggismchaggis] 05/9/2017 08:25

I absolutely agree Edgar, Nyuni won't be touched until we have N1 and N2 producing revenue, probably N3 as well (unless it hits the oil I believe is there, in which case Nyuni won't matter).I agree that there will be Nyuni 3D seismic, but I don't see that happening until after N3 is drilled.We don't have a bottomless pit of money, the money and revenues we have must be directed to the targets that will return cash to us the quickest, so Ntorya production and fixing Kiliwani.

[edgar222] 05/9/2017 08:12

I think the company have been pretty clear that Nyuni is on the back-burner and the absolute priority is Ruvuma and production.

I am not sure I have read anywhere that there will be a H1 2018 Nyuni drill. Possibly seismic I agree.

FWIW the Company have these priorities right IMHO

[stinkypeet] 05/9/2017 07:57

Absolutely agree with you vike1 on Nyuni; only a question of when, not if. But will require 3D seismic first, which we are already tendering for. I expect 3D to be done in the 4th quarter and drill in H1 2018. This was certainly indicated at the AGM and even more pressing with KN1 gas pressures declining. Song Song needs more gas - it is barely covering minimum production levels at present and if KN1 dries up it won't even be able to operate without a new source of gas.

[warbaby43] 05/9/2017 07:36

Over to our resident Orca watcher:

[warbaby43] 05/9/2017 07:26

"significant confirmation of Ntorya being at c1.3tcf of onshore low extraction cost gas."

Bearing in mind one of the constantly buzzing bees in my bonnet, I should have added there the words "and within c35km of the coast"

As further resources get proved up in the Ruvuma PSA, I remain convinced that with multiple TCFs the negligible distance to the coast will become almost as significant as proximity to the pipeline. Indeed, along with being onshore, it is one of the principal factors that separate AEX's from so many other small companies O&G assets.

[haggismchaggis] 05/9/2017 07:17

Doubt it. AEX and SOLO want production wells and revenue, not wildcats. ;-)

[vike1] 05/9/2017 00:32

They may choose to drill a near-shore target within the Nyuni block. They have a 93% stake and can plug into the Songo Songo facility with relative ease. SOLO wouldn't be on the hook for any near-term commitment either. Just a thought.

[shabbadabbadoo2] 05/9/2017 00:24

Just remember the old saying: big fields just get bigger.

Interestingly in the Ritson interview, and somewhat in the Aaron interview, they both seemed vague about N3 drilling.

It looks to me like they are going to commercialise it all first, and then as demand rises drill more wells. I think N3 is a long way off.

[greyingsurfer] 04/9/2017 22:17

Haggis, Ritson always goes for the tabloid headline. Always best to listen to the organ grinder.It's a 10x increase from the post N1 estimates. "Only" 3x up from the last (post N2) estimates.How can they include the area where N3 will be drilled? Because they are estimates based on what they know so far. They have a model (based on marrying up seismic and drilling data) which gives them reservoir extent and thickness and work from that. Of course, it will have to be updated when N3 has been drilled, and it would be no surprise if they were shown to have been on the conservative side now. N3 is still important, both to confirm and extend the existing model and, hopefully, to prove up something in the Jurassic.Peter

[haggismchaggis] 04/9/2017 20:08

The SOLO RNS says 10x GIIP, I don't see how N3 can be included in GIIP as it's not been drilled yet, so they can't say if there is any GIIP there.Aminex has upgraded the unrisked resource estimates from 466 billion cubic feet ("bcf") Pmean GIIP to approximately 1,344 bcf Pmean GIIP. This three-fold increase from the estimate provided immediately after the Ntorya-2 well and issued in late April 2017 is based on ongoing technical work which includes; data from the successful Ntorya-2 appraisal well, and subsequent re-evaluation of existing seismic, including reprocessing of select seismic lines and detailed review of all well data associated with the onshore Ruvuma basin. The results of the additional work and the Ntorya-2 well have led to nearly an overall ten-fold increase in the estimated in place resources in the Ntorya gas-condensate field as compared to the estimates made following the original discovery well Ntorya-1.

[edgar222] 04/9/2017 17:33

Well put Warbaby and probably correct

I think there is ambiguity but I am quibbling. Feeling very good about the future here generally.

[edgar222] 04/9/2017 16:27

Ok Peter, back at desk and was going to check but I think the Ritson interview has put this to bed for me.

He makes clear that N3 is in the same reservoir towards the end of the interview.

Still think the earlier info was ambiguous but probably cleared up now

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[edgar222] 04/9/2017 15:15

Ok I will look again later.Genuinely trying to interpret here as opposed to mislead (myself or others!) !