Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[bunbooster2] 13/2/2017 19:47

Some numbers for M&P Tanzania gas output released -

Looks like jumped down in Q3 due to KN-1 coming online and then rose in Q4 due to, I assume and hope, growing demand.

[tidy 2] 13/2/2017 19:34

Block trades movement

[greyingsurfer] 13/2/2017 17:52

Buy, sell or unknown trades?

I hesitate to say this, WB, but someone bought and someone sold! Who initiated it? Impossible to say, particularly with late trades and large trades, as it's hard to know what the quote was at the time, and even if you did they'll almost certainly have been negotiated dealer to dealer.

Peter

[john2017] 13/2/2017 17:46

Thanks mate

[888icb] 13/2/2017 17:44

The trades are late reported from the 9th Feb 5 million 2 Million and 1.59 million. There is also 1.07 million from 10th Feb. They will have been buys in all probability but are in any event in the price now as they were not part of todays trading.

[john2017] 13/2/2017 17:35

These huge trades done at 3.9 and 4.4 will it affect the share price Tomorrow opening and drag us down to the 4's?

[warbaby43] 13/2/2017 17:34

Buy, sell or unknown trades?

[haggismchaggis] 13/2/2017 17:29

9.5m in late reported trade including one for 5m. We had similar late reported big trades last Thursday and Friday, coupled with more late big trades appearing the following morning prior to the opening bell.

[haggismchaggis] 13/2/2017 17:15

Volume almost as high today as the day of the last RNS. Now to creep back up to 5.5p or 6p as we approach the N1 results methinks.

[greyingsurfer] 13/2/2017 15:08

Ngms,Hopefully we'll get a clearer picture after the final testing results are analysed. You may prove right, though I remain unconvinced at present that either of those are inconsistent with the N-1 well result. Particularly since the larger interval at N-1 (the 16m one that has caused so much confusion) wasn't tested.Peter

[haideralifool] 13/2/2017 15:07

Thanks Peter.

[ngms27] 13/2/2017 14:47

Peter, I still do question whether they have hit the main channel sands down dip rather than NT-1 channels up dip given the Oil Shows and Unexpected Pressure.

[greyingsurfer] 13/2/2017 14:35

Hi HA,

JT re your post 60012, that's what I thought, so a bit puzzled by Peter's observation that N2 has improved the risks of N3.

I wouldn't say that the cos of N-3 has increased by much. However, had N-2 failed (unlikely but possible) then it would have suggested weaknesses in the model, and I'd have expected a lowering of expectations for N-3. In that sense, since that hasn't happened I would say that N-2 has had a positive impact on N-3 expectations. Also evidence that there is gas charge updip of N-1 at the least adds a bit of further support to there being a reasonably active petroleum system nearby. My personal view is that's probably as far as it goes (though the full well results could change that). Overall I'd say my view remains the same as JT/ngms's recent post - though I think his current position on that is not quite what it was early last week.

Peter

[edgein] 13/2/2017 14:03

If that diagram is correct then NT-2 becomes NT-3 and is still in the lower channels well away from the main upper channel of the sloping fan system. How complete a fault line is depends on how complete the seismic set is, so relying totally on one diagram may indeed be a leap of faith. I'm sure there are many fault lines between here and all those discoveries offshore, yet it certainly hasn't stopped the gas fairway extending to Ntorya and most likely beyond as long as there is viable source rock below and a trapping mechanism above. No proof as yet that NT-3 isn't just a continuation of these channels a little updip, and 5.6km is just a little updip when you consider the size of this prospect.

Regards,
Ed.

[haideralifool] 13/2/2017 13:44

JT re your post 60012, that's what I thought, so a bit puzzled by Peter's observation that N2 has improved the risks of N3.

If there is some validity to that, perhaps it explains the recent run-up in the price?

[haggismchaggis] 13/2/2017 13:42

ngms, and there's no oil at N2, it's presumed to have migrated up-dip to N3, prior to the fault separating the sands. I would be betting on oil at N3, not gas.

[haggismchaggis] 13/2/2017 13:39

slepy, I guess we'll have to wait and see, but each successful well derisks the subsequent wells in the same block, surely?Also, the oil is believed to have migrated up-dip of N2, so the COS for oil at N3 is now increased, whereas before it was only negligible.

[ngms27] 13/2/2017 13:37

NT-2 doesn't affect the COS of NT-3 given NT-2 was appraising the same sand channels encountered at NT-1. NT-3 is testing different sand channels and is the other side of a fault.

That means NT-3 seal is unproven as is potential charge and reservoir properties for instance.

[tidy 2] 13/2/2017 13:34

N2 has gone from 60% to 100% cos. N3 will have increased.

[haggismchaggis] 13/2/2017 13:34

Edgein, and then there's the oil that's migrated up-dip of Likonde and up-dip from Ntorya.

[slepy] 13/2/2017 13:30

N3 shows on one of the presentations as 30% chance of success.
Not sure how it is changed now with N2 done.

[edgein] 13/2/2017 13:30

"Second well, Ntorya-1, made a gas discovery of potential commercial interest. Light oil and condensates are also present." (Q4 16 presentation Solo)

Just thought that some of the conspiracy theorists may also like to see the above regarding the liquids at NT-1. It'll be interesting to see just how much higher NT-2 is pressure wise to the significant 5,400psi at NT-1. These two wells have only scratched the surface of this huge sloping fan system. I personally cannot wait until this jvp drills NT-3 as migration could come from multiple directions, not only from the channels and the fan but also from Likonde updip and from the west. Gonna be one of the most exciting wells on AIM for years.

Regards,
Ed.

[greyingsurfer] 13/2/2017 13:29

greyingsurfer, I'm not sure how you think N3 is a high risk, as I'm sure AEX and most knowledgeable shareholders would say that the success of N2 significantly reduces the risk that was applied to N3, prior to the N2 drilling. In fact, N3 is now the target for oil too.N-2 was a low risk appraisal of N-1, and has been very successful. But I see no evidence so far that it has much impact on the likely success of N-3 which is some distance away, and the most interesting possible target of which was not intersected by N-2.There may be oil at N-3, that was always a possibilty, but the oil shows at N-2 don't change that greatly.N-2 has certainly improve the risks of N-3, but it remains a significantly higher risk than N-2.

[slepy] 13/2/2017 13:21

tidy surely the result is now pretty much priced in current share price
Unless it is a lot better than what people assume already.