Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[ngms27] 08/2/2017 08:39

There have been previous comments around potentially not drilling NT-3 based on NT-2 results. I've always found this puzzling since everything we have been told and shown suggests that NT-2 is drilling the gas bearing sands updip that were encountered at NT-1. Thus it should have been all but a formality.

I would question now whether that was just one interpretation or whether the situation is more complex given the unexpected higher pressure and oil shows. I still think this is a very odd result given NT-1

Thus personally I won't be surprised if NT-3 isn't drilled until 2018 after 3D seismic has been collected in the area.

[tmmalik] 08/2/2017 08:38

Small sells nd big buys,seems someone buying in bigger quantity.

[edgar222] 08/2/2017 08:36

Peter

You misunderstand me. I didn't explain very well.

I mean in the future when someone says that X Oil PLC is the next big thing. People will describe it as the new Aminex, as shorthand for look what is possible.

Like we have done here with Cove and others at the moment are doing with Sound.

Sorry ignore me. Giddy daydreams.

[greyingsurfer] 08/2/2017 08:30

It's not a "new" Aminex, it's the same Aminex. This is what they've been working towards for the last few years. Against a background of depressed O&G sector and very tight funding environment.They seem to have certainly got at least part way there now. If N-3 comes in well they will be making serious progress in the right direction.Peter

[edgar222] 08/2/2017 08:23

Peter

I too hope for a speedy N3. Only sounding a word of caution, based on one line in a Ritson interview.

My point is only that I hope for a speedy N3 if N2 has not changed the model / plan.

Do you know what I really hope for? That time when you can explain to others that a new Company you have just found is the "new Aminex" !

Happy days.

[haggismchaggis] 07/2/2017 18:39

I guess we'll see when the results of N2 are announced. With a bit of luck we've hit that high pressure Likonde gas.

[ngms27] 07/2/2017 17:41

Forget Likonde, it looks like part of Ntorya now.

[haggismchaggis] 07/2/2017 17:10

But L2 is still L2, it's never been N3 as N3 already existed when L2 existed. L2 doesn't get a mention currently, it's all about N2 and N3, but L2 is still there on the backburner.

[greyingsurfer] 07/2/2017 17:09

Edgar, yes extensions may well be forthcoming, but they are always best avoided if possible. There are nearly always conditions attached.At present I can see no reason why AEX would want to delay, beyond the 3 weeks or so they already have for testing, analysis and updating the models. There's nothing we know of so far that suggests a significant deviation from expectation. They've already done the civils for N-3, so no suggestion either that they expected to have to reconsider the position.I'd expect N-3 to spud as soon as practicable, once they move the rig after freeing it at the end of the month.Peter

[greyingsurfer] 07/2/2017 16:59

Seismic interpretation and well positions have moved on in the last 18 months, Haggis.

[haggismchaggis] 07/2/2017 16:46

L2 is not N3."Several well locations have been identified from the new seismic mapping, including the Ntorya-2 and Ntorya-3 appraisal wells as well as Likonde-2 and Namisange-1 exploration wells."http://www.investegate.co.uk/solo-oil-plc--solo-/rns/tanzania-update/201508260700300804X/

[edgar222] 07/2/2017 15:32

Warbaby

You may be right on the terms of the licences as they stand.

But history shows that the Tz authorities are supportive. That is not just flannel that is borne out of their licence extensions in the past.

And we must be even more in their good books than before !

So a risk I grant you.

But not a large one and in the scheme of Aminex things a very small one compared to the risk of going bankrupt not so long ago !!

[tidy 2] 07/2/2017 15:19

Shakey Shakey

[ngms27] 07/2/2017 13:46

The 250m sands that were water wet at Likonde are planned to be tested by NT-3 materially up dip. These are the secondary 400BCF target.

As to the deep sands that caused the P&A I'm not 100% certain these are the same sands comprising the 1 TCF main target as the geological age seems different BUT NT-1 geological age was changed years after the drill when the seismic model was updated.

[greyingsurfer] 07/2/2017 13:42

N-3 can probably be seen as effectively L-2, in terms of what's targeted. Nothing reported so far suggests N-2 other than expected, in general terms, so no reason to assume changes to the drilling program. Had N-2 not come in as it did then there would have been a case for a pause and perhaps more seismic, but it did. Peter

[blackgold00] 07/2/2017 13:41

I wonder, if the NT-2 results are as they hope for, then whether they will re-inter NT-1 for a side track or something first before moving on to NT-3, so as to test and be ready and bring forward any potential early development scheme?



"Additionally, the Company has now completed all necessary civil works for the subsequent Ntorya-3 wellsite. Ntorya-3, which will be located approximately 5 kilometers from the Ntorya-1 discovery well, is expected to be drilled following Ntorya-2 but the programme may vary depending on the results at Ntorya-2"

[edgar222] 07/2/2017 13:36

Ritson hinted at new seismic and a pause between N2 and N3 once. And once only. Jay has not said that. But the Company can take this carefully. I know we all want speed and riches today (me included) but there is no massive financial or other pressure that is on and I would have thought that reviewing the geology has to be a good idea?

I am also not aware of Likonde 2 existing in any plan. They were very confident of Ntorya3, though.

The only person talking about Likonde recently has been David Lenigas who was very critical of Tullow and even hinted at class actions. The latter is piffle and the former is history. We need our Board to look to the future not attempt to change the past.

So, at last, Aminex are in control of what happens as the debt is disappearing. That includes newsflow and plans. And I believe that Jay has for some time been under-promising. And he has just started to over-deliver.

All good.

[haggismchaggis] 07/2/2017 13:31

The question I have, is if N2 is deemed to be in the L1 or N3 sands, will the plans for N3 change?If N2 has hit N3's target and is producing excellent flow rates, perhaps they would do L2 instead of N3?

[edgar222] 07/2/2017 13:27

A number of different news announcements might drop:

Income from KN1
Plans for ramp up of production at KN1
Moving to commercial GSA terms (as opposed to commissioning terms as now)
Debt levels and pay-down
Booking of KN1 reserves

N3 plans
Flow tests N2
Size estimate N2
Geology news N2 / N3 and generally

Commercialisation plans for Ntorya. Is it pipeline, industry, some form of LNG or something else?

Licence news. 25 year development licence application / grant.

Nyuni seismic plans

Take your pick. Some of the above are inter-related and some are more important than others.

[ngms27] 07/2/2017 13:18

The rig won't be free until March. Testings going to take to the end of the month.

[tmmalik] 07/2/2017 13:09

My initial thoughts were 5p after flow test but now seems 4.5p by mid March.It might possible we get some RNS next week about spudding plans of N-3 as same rig will b free

[haggismchaggis] 07/2/2017 12:37

Big jump from 11:30, anyone seen any news? Jay interview?

[greatfull dead] 07/2/2017 08:15

Edgar,

One never stops learning. I know that from positive and negative experiences.

ATB,
GD

Off Topic. Nice RNS from SOLO,UKOG & EOG