Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[dan_the_epic] 12/10/2016 15:22

I accept that as being a perfectly fair response, although there are some clear points in there that I would reject, but have commented on before. Touche on a decent reply.


Sadly I never see this generating positive free cash flow, and eventually see this being run into the ground, whether in 1 year, or 4 years.

I do NOT have an open short at the moment ; I have noted this before when abandoning the 0.7p target a while back after the placing. Therefore it would almost make sense for me to want this to go as high as possible, so no point saying I'm talking this down. The higher away it goes from my 'fair value', the better a short it is.

In the meantime I will continue to add a dose of cynicism where I see fit, even if it may be alone (unless skinwalker retains his healthy cynicism).

[ngms27] 12/10/2016 14:27

Dan,

Please highlight where I've changed my mind as I have no idea.

I've always made it clear I'm going to be here for the NT-2 drill

[tmmalik] 12/10/2016 14:26

Spuding starts on Friday

[vike1] 12/10/2016 13:43

The cheese stands alone

[dan_the_epic] 12/10/2016 13:02

Well it's quite obvious two of your 'FACTS' are not facts as they contain major elements of guesswork or unconfirmed speculation.

Quite shocking how you change your tone when heading for the drill campaign. The inner me wonders whether you loaded up recently, and so were deliberately talking it down earlier on before you could add.

[ngms27] 12/10/2016 12:57

Fingers firmly crossed :)

[blackgold00] 12/10/2016 12:35

that analogy is fine with me ngms.

[ngms27] 12/10/2016 12:16

I disagree.

Source rocks are shale, you wouldn't get a large gas kick from such tight rocks.

More likely Likonde-1 hit a sealed reservoir that's likely large ;)

[blackgold00] 12/10/2016 12:14

yes Bun, i think we hit the source rock at Likonde



"Likonde-1 is located in the Lindi Block in the Ruvuma Basin of Southern
Tanzania. The well was drilled to a total depth of 3,647 metres and results of
drilling, wireline logs and side-wall coring have shown that the well has
intersected two sandstone intervals of over 250 metres (820 feet) combined
thickness with evidence of residual oil and gas. Drilling had to be terminated
in the deepest objectives due to high gas influx."

[canigou2] 12/10/2016 12:05

Spudding is no doubt imminent.

[cervelo] 12/10/2016 11:45

i guess we must be very close to spudding, 1st Aug RNS said well pad prep would take about 10 weeks.

[bunbooster2] 12/10/2016 11:43

Sorry I find that document too boring and complicated. Too much jargon. Can you summarise in an easy to understand fashion please.

[bunbooster2] 12/10/2016 10:23

The jurassic is the big prize. Some people here, including professionals with well paid jobs, are missing the obvious. It's the turkey voting before christmas.

[ngms27] 12/10/2016 10:18

FACT 1: Tried to farmout the prospect for a hell of a long time. Got nothing decent.
FACT 2: Bowleven were very interested, the price they were willing to pay was excellent for Aminex, so much so that BLVN shareholders revolted. BLVN walked away due to timings, I believe related to Ferostal and montitisation of the Gas.
FACT 3: No one was interested in farming out the small percentage SOLO had on the table it had to be related to a bigger deal with AEX, so SOLO had to dilute.

Management has a COS for NT-2 of 60% plus we get to test the untested / unlogged sands at Likonde-1 that gave a MASSIVE kick. Even if we reduce the COS to 40% in my opinion the risk / reward is compelling.

Have a look at SOU and what difference a successful appraisal can make.

So ngms27 hasn't turned but was always going to be here for a shot at NT-2/3 on a risk / reward basis.

[dan_the_epic] 12/10/2016 10:01

Whatever stinky, is there any relevance to it?

Ngms. What is going on? Are you now some resident geologist who has had access to all the geological files, or are you just conducting some pretty weak guesswork based on a few pictures and comments from RNS and presentations....

FACT 1: Tried to farmout the prospect for a hell of a long time. Got nothing decent.
FACT 2: Bowleven were partly interested, but the price they were willing to pay was pretty low, and then walked away for some reason.
FACT 3: Solo repeatedly said 25% of Ruvuma was too much for them, seemed to be unable to get a farmout done, so had to dilute even more.

No-one seems to see the phenomenal potential of Ntorya that all you resident experts see, yet you have no basis. This is like Kea petroleum in many ways.

Bring back KevJones and Skinwalker, Ngms has turned.

[blackgold00] 12/10/2016 09:17

ngms, "You have all got it wrong."

"The published targets in the Ntorya-1 well were all water wet. Aminex and Solo decided to deepen the well to an unpublished objective 250m below and the operator withdrew."

have we ngms, well there's nothing about published targets being all water wet from the N-1 DRILLING UPDATE. just the fact that the "targeted sandstone intervals were not encountered at the prognosed depths between 1,800 and 1,900 metres.", hence the need fore a check shot. Though i like your enthusiasm for the potential of the secondary targets of NT-2 and NT-3.



"The well was spudded on the 22 December 2011 and is now at a depth of 2500 metres. The targeted sandstone intervals were not encountered at the prognosed depths between 1,800 and 1,900 metres. Further drilling found sandstone intervals along with traces of gas below 2,300 metres. Wireline logs and check shot data will now be recorded to determine whether or not to drill further."

"The Ntorya-1 well is designed to test the high quality Basal Tertiary and Upper Cretaceous sands previously encountered in the Likonde-1 well, 14 kilometres to the north."

[ngms27] 12/10/2016 08:47

You have all got it wrong.

The published targets in the Ntorya-1 well were all water wet. Aminex and Solo decided to deepen the well to an unpublished objective 250m below and the operator withdrew.

As luck would have it the NT-1 discovery was made 90m above the objective they were targeting.

I have always thought that Likonde-1 was likely a discovery but the kick they got with the well design meant it couldn't be tested or logged. The other target in NT-2 and NT-3 IS the sands they got the kick from at Likonde-1. If this does indeed come in the current resource estimates will likely be far too conservative.

[pj 1] 12/10/2016 08:31

No. I am not Quire right; Ask the wife.

[stinkypeet] 12/10/2016 08:28

Yes PJ you are actually quire right; so to be more specific, Investec have targeted Tanzania and Tanzanian focused companies as a major growth area for them for Banking, M&A and fundraising activity.....

[pj 1] 12/10/2016 08:17

Mind you, on the other hand, it could be argued that Investec has a specific focus on Tanzania, and also a specific focus on all the other geographic regions on the planet where investment may be required in the future.

Its a very long list though.........

[stinkypeet] 12/10/2016 08:06

Carry on Dan in your smug ignorance. I wouldn't be as arrogant as to suggest anyone is right, or wrong. I would simply state my case and leave it to others to make their own mind up.

I repeat; I would rather trust an insider at Investec who is dealing directly with the region and in Oil and Gas specifically than someone with an obvious agenda who is so dismissive of anything that might remotely positive concerning AEX.

So - for the third time - Dan you carry on laughing and I will carry on talking to those that know a damn sight more than you.

:-)

[dan_the_epic] 11/10/2016 22:08

Ironically you have got the wrong end of the stick again.

It should really be DAN_the_EPIC. DAN was the EPIC code for Daniel Stewart, which was the first stock I went short on.

Anywho, please keep posting this sort of tripe about Investec being keen on Tanzania. It gives me a good laugh :-)! Care to glean any reasons WHY they are so 'particular[ly]' interested in Tanzania?

Bet you're going to tell PJ he's wrong too? :-)

[stinkypeet] 11/10/2016 19:45

Sit back in your glorious ignorance Dan the "epic" (that just about sums it up) and snipe from the sidelines; see it I give a toss. The difference is that you are making assumptions about who I may or may not have spoken to - I, on the other hand, know who I have been speaking to... should I trust them, or you?!

I would rather take knowledge over guesswork anyday.

Keep smiling "epic".

LOL :-)