Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[ngms27] 09/8/2016 11:17

As Peter pointed out the wellhead pressure won't be high enough to use a tanker economically, the Gas would need compressing and any NGL's extracted first.

You stupid stupid boy Pike

[bunbooster2] 09/8/2016 09:41

"There are existing Diesel, Heavy Fuel Oil and a planned coal fired power station."

Um, yes. I guess so.

"That's going to mean an awful lot of nozzles."

I feel you're mocking me but I haven't heard anyone point out any flaws in my suggestion of a fleet of local tankers (using cheap local workforce not trained drivers - to save money), filled with a simple nozzle inserted into the ground (simple, local technology, no over engineering), and then transported to areas of demand (sell for a profit).

This doesn't need to be complicated!

[edgar222] 09/8/2016 09:19

"That's going to mean an awful lot of nozzles."


And tankers. Not lorries.

[lfdkmp] 09/8/2016 09:03

"With LNG timelines that demand will have to be met by onshore gas".

That's going to mean an awful lot of nozzles.

[888icb] 09/8/2016 09:03

My new shares have now been put into my Barclays account with my existing shares and so are available to deal. It will be interesting to see where the rest of the new shares have ended up. I am hoping we can start to move north in the coming days.

[ngms27] 09/8/2016 09:02

Not necessarily so. There are existing Diesel, Heavy Fuel Oil and a planned coal fired power station.

[bunbooster2] 09/8/2016 08:50

"Tanzania plans to spend 7 trillion shillings (£2.46 billion) over the next five years to connect about 1 million rural households to electricity"



With LNG timelines that demand will have to be met by onshore gas.

[edgar222] 08/8/2016 20:39

Cheers, Irish

[irishmouse] 08/8/2016 20:01

Part 2.

Funding and production start-up at Kiliwani signal sea-change for group
Net funding of £18.4m, which includes a cornerstone investment by an Oman investment conglomerate, in addition to the April start-up of gas are important for Aminex. The funding provides capacity to drill out additional gas reserves/resources in the group’s inventory, and gas production will provide valuable financial flexibility and illustrate that Aminex can create full cycle value.

Funding ensures drilling activity
The net £18.4m funding will enable Aminex to drill one appraisal well and one exploration well, both on the Rovuma licence. This goes some way to meeting drilling commitments but is also essential if the group is to add additional value through growing the existing reserve/resource base.

[irishmouse] 08/8/2016 19:59

Hope this helps.

Longer-term strategy to become an onshore Tanzanian and East African gas provider is sensible
We think becoming a gas producer onshore Tanzania (and possibly in other areas along East Africa) is a sensible and rational route for the group’s further development. The region is well understood by Aminex; gas is already an established resource; and infrastructure is slowly building. Final gas demand will continue to increase, reflecting economic growth and replacement of biomass as a source of fuel. Importantly, Aminex has plenty of targets in its portfolio that it can pursue. Crucially, we believe that this strategic position played an important role in the group’s new inward investment. We also think that one consequence of this strategy is that Aminex will, over time, move away from higher risk exploration plays to become more appraisal and development focussed.

Valuation analysis; moving rating to ‘Outperform217;
Our valuation (adjusting for the funding) breaks out at 2.4p per share. Of this, just under 1p is made up by Kiliwani and cash. The largest element of the valuation is the prospective resource in the Rovuma and Nyuni licences. It looks as if the market has thus far been prepared to just buy the near reserve of Kiliwani and offer little value for the prospective assets. However, the cornerstone funding and cash flow from Kiliwani now provide a mechanism to realise these resources. We are therefore moving our rating to ‘Outperform217; from ‘Neutral’;.

[edgar222] 08/8/2016 17:40

Bun

I don't know what we would do on this board without your technical expertise.

Tanker not normal lorry. With nozzle. Has someone told Jay?

[vike1] 08/8/2016 16:09

It's all academic at this point. Certainly the company won't apply for a license until the NT2, and possibly even NT3, appraisal drilling is complete. I don't expect a penny of revenue from Ruvuma for at least 18 months. That's not long off in the O&G space though.

[ngms27] 08/8/2016 16:00

It would be very strange to be granted a development license prior to evaluating the resource as TPDC would want to look at maximising recovery and cash flow from the asset. Thus I only think this is feasible if NT-2.

[vike1] 08/8/2016 15:50

Development license to be applied for. Now you're going to say obtaining that, even for its existing NT1 discovery, is not guaranteed. But seriously, why are you getting sucked into this discussion?

[vike1] 08/8/2016 15:42

Re condensate, I did, and they are.

[ngms27] 08/8/2016 15:18

They don't have a development license yet so absolutely zero chance never mind the technicals involved.

[bunbooster2] 08/8/2016 15:13

Obviously they would use a tanker not a normal lorry. It's simply a case of fixing up a nozzle (not too hard), filling her up and driving to the local cement factory (who will pay in cash - American dollars).

I wouldn't be surprised if this starts happening before the next appraisal well is even drilled (Not ideal, but the extra cash flow now will make up for the lower extraction rates).

[ngms27] 08/8/2016 14:59

Laughable really about trucking gas.

I'd also check to see if Aminex actually get any revenue from the Condensate given they are paid for the Gas at the well head.

[greyingsurfer] 08/8/2016 14:50

At that distance we can even truck it over until the longer term solution is in place

Not really, you would need processing and compression - almost certainly not a viable option.

[vike1] 08/8/2016 13:22

Requiring some construction to carry hoards of gas 31 kms away would be a great problem to have!

At that distance we can even truck it over until the longer term solution is in place. We'll see how wet any future discovery is. Remember, the condensate as part of the NT1 discovery can be sold as well.

[ngms27] 08/8/2016 12:06

I accept that there is a gas processing plant in place but how far is that from Ntorya? Remember wet gas corrodes pipelines so normally you would locate them close to the wellheads NOT 10's of KM's away.

[warbaby43] 08/8/2016 11:19

The direct implication of investment in an EPS of a size commensurate with supplying power to Mtwara industrial users means a payback time of years, hence "long term" for any spur pipline - see second from bottom para of p51 of Prospectus.

[edgar222] 08/8/2016 11:04

DAVY VIEW

Cash from the recent funding and the start-up of gas sales from Kiliwani signal a major shift in the financial status of Aminex and also provide a core for valuation and cash flow. This compares positively to recent years when Aminex has struggled to match expenditure requirements with its funding capacity. The group now has a much more stable platform to grow and generate equity value for shareholders. Consequently, we are changing our rating to ‘Outperform217;.

[edgar222] 08/8/2016 11:04

Sorry major typo. I meant 700k - 1m per month not 10m

Oops

[vike1] 08/8/2016 10:51

The processing plant is right next to the pipeline. Already built.