Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[bigsi2] 15/6/2016 11:46

Is that profit of £9m or revenue ?? Two very different things

[stinkypeet] 15/6/2016 11:13

No, edgar not if it costs $11m to drill a well and AEX plans on drilling N2 N3 and re-enter N1. The assumption that the loan required is only $20m assumes repayment of Argo loan and drilling nly one well. There is no suggestion that this will be the eventual commitment - AEX has always said it intends to drill two wells and re-enter N1.

Furthermore there will only be a profit of $9m in the first two years...

[warbaby43] 15/6/2016 11:01

edgar222, you wouldn't, perchance, be expecting them to drill four explo wells by December and hang on to 51% of KN-1, would you?

[edgar222] 15/6/2016 10:56

Stinky

KN1 will pay off the loan in 3 years at a profit of 9m pa.

[ngms27] 15/6/2016 10:53

AEX's income from KN-1 starts to fall off a cliff after 18 to 24 months using there own production profile.

Then what about running costs never mind required Capex, never mind paying Argo the $11m plus. There is no way they will get anyone to give them a loan on decent terms. That leaves several options:
Loan on outrageous terms including giving equity away
Very large placing / rights issue but at what price? 0.5p?
Farmout the acreage - Easily the best option
They do an Afren

The Afren option is the most likely unless they get clarity over the licenses very soon.

[seball] 15/6/2016 10:31

Solo flying. Expect AEX to move. News leak?

[seball] 15/6/2016 10:31

Solo flying. Expect AEX to move. News leak?

[stinkypeet] 15/6/2016 10:28

So edgar when you get a mortgage it is usually over a 25 year term - KN1 income will last 5 years at an ever decreasing rate. After all costs would there be enough left over to repay a $20m loan plus interest? Marginal I think. So I do not believe that KN1 income streams will, in themselves, support a $20m loan....

[warbaby43] 15/6/2016 10:17

What a pity, from the Tanzanian government's point of view, that the oil company with the most promising Mtwara onshore gas acreage, is too skint to be able to drill to prove up that gas.

Now, what might they be able to do about that?

[joestalin] 15/6/2016 09:29

If Turkey can join the EU, Tanzania could be next. Or how about St. Kitts and Nevis?

Happy Independence day for the 23rd June.

[edgar222] 15/6/2016 09:16

FUNDING

I don't know how much clearer the funding options could be. They have not announced one yet because it is not finalised and settled. It is not finalised and settled because they do not know the KN1 flow rate (and therefore slaes rate). YET.

Put it like this. The Shore note talks of income of $15m plus pa to Aminex from KN1 alone. Going forward they estimate a company profit of $9m pa to Aminex based on KN1 alone. They also estimate that Aminex needs $20m for debt, and Ruvuma drilling.

If you were going for a mortgage based on $15m pa income would you expect to get a loan of $20m ? Yes, of course.

Ditto with $9m pa.

Simples. That's only the debt option. Sale outright, RBL including Gemini deal, forward sale of gas are all other options.

Because we know this we have the advantage over the market, who seem to be requiring finalised announcement. That advantage makes this a screaming buy. The market will catch up.

[warbaby43] 15/6/2016 07:44

It is, though, in the nascent EAU, currently termed the EAC just as the EU was preceded by the EEC.

[gerryjames] 15/6/2016 07:35

Tanzania isn't in the EU. Yet. Unlike bloody Portugal. I'm ruined apart from Aminex stock.

[lfdkmp] 15/6/2016 07:25

I had a dreadful night last night.

I lay awake most of the night worrying that Tanzania might vote to exit the EU.

Someone please tell me my fears are groundless.

Thank you

[haggismchaggis] 14/6/2016 23:24

The Ntorya discovery has the potential to be over 1 tcf of gas which would have a NPV of close to a billion dollars so hopefully our hard work and patience will be rewardedhttp://www.busiweek.com/index1.php?Ctp=2&pI=5254&pLv=3&srI=53&spI=20&cI=11

[kellyharper] 14/6/2016 21:05

Timothy Kitundu spoke to Neil Ritson, Solo Oil Plc Chairman and Director and Jay Bhattacherjee, Aminex Plc (Ndovu Resources)
14th June 2016

[joestalin] 14/6/2016 11:29

Time we had an English referendum.

[skinwalker] 14/6/2016 10:47

Bless the Irish !

[gerryjames] 14/6/2016 09:28

Is this ex NED Derek Tughan having a chat with the Taxman and shouting state sponsored theft.

"A County Down businessman, who converted two property companies into charities to avoid paying tax, is being asked to pay back millions of pounds.

Solicitor Derek Tughan has also been removed as a trustee of the two charities which means losing control of a housing empire valued at about £15m.

Mr Tughan, 74, has insisted he does not owe anything.

A charities expert said the two bodies are "absolutely, definitely charities" from which no individual may benefit.
'Property empire'

Mr Tughan told the BBC he was "gutted" at the actions of the charity watchdog, the Charity Commission.

"They have grabbed control of Tughan family property and I regard it as state sponsored theft. I am not a charity," he said."

[warbaby43] 14/6/2016 08:30

First mention, I believe, of Shell in relation to Tanzania since the BG takeover. As I have posted previously, should Shell declare Tanzanian acreage to be among their non core disposals that would be a big negative, correspondingly should they make any announcement or move towards development, even long term, that would be helpful in conditioning sentiment.

[skinwalker] 14/6/2016 08:26

All seems very confusing. Are we confident that the Aminex BOD actually knows where Tanzania is?

[blackgold00] 13/6/2016 18:09

warbaby, I am only stating what Aminex have publicly stated, obviously Ntorya has had a lot more work done on it, it is a discovery and the up and coming wells are appraisal wells, where as the Namisange prospect is exploration and yet to be classed as a discovery. but it is a TCF prospect with a high-grade lead that's drill ready, so must have a value placed on it.



"Acquired in 2014 a high density 2D seismic programme over Ntorya Up-dip, Likonde and Namisange to high-grade leads to drill ready prospects"