Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[warbaby43] 21/5/2015 17:50

In his recent interview when JB used the word "imminent" and the blonde bird then pressed him, he immediately became evasive and waffled. Indeed, in that interview he was a lot less fluent and a lot more halting in his speech than when it was a set-up with his fawning mate Malcy.

My guess is that the use of the word "imminent" was ill-advised and one he now regrets ever uttering.

It sure don't do owt for his credibility unless the GSA really is going to arrive any time now.

[greyingsurfer] 21/5/2015 14:05

Well no one did previously so why would they now?

A Ntorya farm in is certainly no shoo-in, but things have moved on since the last try for a farm out - there's been more seismic, more analysis, clearer drill ready targets and a CPR. We'll have to wait and see if that's enough. Get the KN1 gas flowing and there would be possibilities to do Ntorya 2 without a farm in, but it's not the route I'd be happiest with.

Peter

[thecynical1] 21/5/2015 13:03

isn't it funny the way the large trades get delayed......so they can go in the "unknown" column........somebody is playing a blinder.......

[dontsweatit] 21/5/2015 12:05

warbaby I wish I come from Tanzania and had more knowledge but no I born in Maharanshtra district, which you know more as Mumbai India
I have taken profits on most accounts and longs so am now in for nothing. I think it is very most importants to remember most firms go bust or bankrupt not because of profits or losses but because they run outs of cash. AEX is running out of cash.it is silly to talks of drills and thnings like that until finance is known

[blackgold00] 21/5/2015 11:56

that realy cracked me up thanks thecynical :)

[thecynical1] 21/5/2015 11:54

skinwalker.....maybe he "read the market" and figured out that some of us can actually read...... : )

or maybe he is just unhappy about the 7 ( as of now ) likes that a certain post got! : )

[thecynical1] 21/5/2015 11:53

blackgold........are you aware of the irony?. CPR?

First aid Cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR)!!! LOL! Hilarious! : )

[blackgold00] 21/5/2015 11:31

CPR might help, verifying the new seismic results, (prospects)

[ngms27] 21/5/2015 11:28

Well no one did previously so why would they now?

[blackgold00] 21/5/2015 11:00

that Ntorya-2 Appraisal Well looks rather compelling (Total Pmean GIIP: 1.5 TCF)(250 m gross reservoir interval) and all with a route to market. Surely someone will want a piece of that action

[skinwalker] 21/5/2015 10:55

I wonder where Hamishmcplonker has got to?

[greyingsurfer] 21/5/2015 10:24

So imminent was not really the case but more hopefully soon but unsure when but possibly June/ July. Why cant the BoD actually come out with this rather than fudge the issue and watch the share price rise on false dawns.

Clearly because the timing is out of their hands.

The only real known is that Tanzania wants gas urgently, the infrastructure looks like being ready in the next couple of months and that at that point the GSA either has to be sorted or the gas doesn't flow. I can't see any government in Tanzania wanting to put themselves in that position. Clearly there are benefits for AEX in getting is sorted before that, but they are not the ones in control here - it's when the pressure on the Tanzanian authorities builds that I'd expect to see movement. And I can't see that being far away - possibly even imminent :-)

Peter

[jacks13] 21/5/2015 09:51

The fundamental point that the optimists are missing and the company avoid pointing out is that the gas is in the ground and it will be there when the TPDC need it. Aminex are largely an irrelevance, Solo or any combination of agencies could step into their shoes.

[larsson 2] 21/5/2015 09:32

A placing straight after good news is the norm of late on AIM irrespective of future income. Seen quite a few times recent RNS stating the one off opportunity to raise funds after good news has been published. I am getting nervous this may be the case here. Holding...just

[thecynical1] 21/5/2015 09:26

I also suspect there is little appetite among existing private shareholders but they are in an awful position imo for renegotiating the facility..........lesser of two evils may be a placing....but jmo.

[jacks13] 21/5/2015 09:18

cynical, in the fund raising in February last year they were able to get 800m shares away in the Placing and just the 67m out of a total of 205m in the Open Offer, all priced at 1p. There was another 78m shares issued to creditors in lieu of debt and a further 80m for the Canyon acquisition. There was little appetite among shareholders then and there is little now I suspect so it would again be down to a Placing. The last time the twins were able to load up and maintain or enhance their share of ownership, this time they may not, so that my act to deter them and who knows how enthusiastic the institutions would be? Between their very good friends the TPDC and Argo they are being crucified.

[thecynical1] 21/5/2015 08:59

jacks....loan extension at what price? They might actually be better off to get the pain out of the way and go for a placing instead of getting screwed AGAIN......the financiers definitely have them by the short and curlies so the extension could be at particularly unfavourable terms imo. What do people expect from an extension of the facility? Painful? Very painful? absolutely dreadful.....admittedly, it can hardly get much worse than the percentage they are paying at the moment.......

[larsson 2] 21/5/2015 08:58

So imminent was not really the case but more hopefully soon but unsure when but possibly June/ July. Why cant the BoD actually come out with this rather than fudge the issue and watch the share price rise on false dawns.
The present issue now is sell now and wait for share price to drip down awaiting refinance news and buy back in or hold on the unexpected delivery of the GSA???

[jacks13] 21/5/2015 08:45

I imagine that the negotiations on the delivery of a loan extension are more advanced than those on that of the GSA. Expect a loan extension to be here by late June. The GSA sometime in the Autumn...maybe.

[warbaby43] 21/5/2015 08:45

True, greyingsurfer, that is the alternative reading though it could just be a conservative estimate allowing for ramp up and some down time allowing for inevitable glitches in pipeline and processing plant. This is Tanzania after all and I will be amazed as well as highly delighted if Kiliwani runs at anywhere near an average of 20mmcfd from July to year end - always assuming that is that production does start in or near July.

Hold on tight, always an interesting and exciting ride with Aminex.

[gerryjames] 21/5/2015 08:43

Well whatever Tanzania makes of itself in the future is obviously open to discussion but for now, at this point in time you can't short the price (stock borrowing restrictions). The market reacting as it always does expecting the price to fall back towards 1.7 resistance as time nears the debt restructuring outcome, without a contract.

[greyingsurfer] 20/5/2015 22:06

Looking at the graph on p7 prompts the question, is the forecast of c8mmcf/d for 2015 the rate at which they expect to be producing in H2.

Those figures are stated as daily annual average - so the 8mmcfd is presumably the average for the year - reduced by about 60% from the expectation for 2016-2019 to account for production starting around mid year and ramping up. If they achieve that they will need to start production close to the half year and ramp up fairly smartly. Hopefully their predictions are well based!

Peter

[warbaby43] 20/5/2015 21:01

Looking at the graph on p7 prompts the question, is the forecast of c8mmcf/d for 2015 the rate at which they expect to be producing in H2. If so, we must hope that Argo are going to be willing to extend for rather more than just six months given the comparatively minimal amount of cash 8 mmcf/d is going to produce.

The other implication is that there must be an additional source of financing on the stocks given their timing for Ntorya-2, although, I am taking their back end of H2 with a very large pinch of salt.

Speaking of cash, though, does beg the question of just what they are currently using to settle their bills as they must be very close to running on fresh air by now.

[vike1] 20/5/2015 20:25

I think a farmout out is the way to go. Just wish they were a bit more open about discussing this. Then again, it's probably strategic. They want to get the key asset messages out there + GSA signed to build excitement before talking about mundane things such as financing.

With no announcements imminent, expect the share price to creep back south a bit. Next up is Philip Thomson's presentation to the Africa Conference next weeI. Shame we don't have GSA for that to attract inst. interest.