Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[haggismchaggis] 19/5/2015 09:51

And no doubt you'll be wrong again, otherwise it would have (legally) been advised in the RNS today, bearing in mind AEX know far more about development on the gas plant than you ever could, and they still state first gas in July. Have you seen the project plan for the plant? Obviously not. AEX will have seen it.

[larsson 2] 19/5/2015 09:49

Hmmm..... lots of folk taking profits now it seems. Damn given my plan away (as if I had millions upon millions to offload). Interesting to see what develops over the week what with the adjective 'imminent' causing such excitement.

[ngms27] 19/5/2015 09:34

larsson 2 I like your thinking ;)

However I think earliest production will be Q4 2015 / 2016 as Management have been upbeat for 18 months now.

A few months ago we did comment on here around the African Press saying the concrete hadn't even been laid for the Gas Processing plant, if that is true I would seriously doubt production is imminent.

[haggismchaggis] 19/5/2015 09:33

I am staying put for a while yet. If it reaches 5p this year on Kiliwani production it's still cheap based on the assets. 7.5p on Ntorya 1 production. More than 10p is quite likely on Ntorya 2. A longer hold for offshore Nyuni maybe 15p or even more than 20p. Then there is Namisange and Sudi offering even more upside. Selling out at 5p is crazy.Past performance is no guarantee of future performance, thank God, it will be the complete opposite.

[larsson 2] 19/5/2015 09:18

Was just about to type that volume was rather modest after a more encouraging rns today. Even after holding these shares for so many years and with so many disappointments even I thought this morning's missive was rather upbeat and it seems so does the Market now. Indeed lots more hurdles to get over but essentially I just want this to spike up to 5p (unrealistic perhaps methinks) and I am off never to return.
Even just over 3p and I may just run for it...c'mon AEX !!!

[haggismchaggis] 19/5/2015 09:15

Mission critical and will be completed before July ready for first gas from Kiliwani, don't you read anything??

[blackgold00] 19/5/2015 09:15

ngms27, obviously, but have you got any reasonable reason why the Tanzanian authority's TPDC, will not finish the last bits as soon as possible, of this deemed a most highly valuable and politically important project for Tanzania.

[ngms27] 19/5/2015 08:59

Not a major obstacle!!!!

They cannot produce a thing until it's built, tested and commissioned so it's mission critical.

[haggismchaggis] 19/5/2015 08:50

If there was major news it would have been at least hinted at in today's RNS. I can see GSA as the nearest news, with farmouts for Ruvuma and Nyuni as possible surprises.

[liquid millionaire] 19/5/2015 08:47

Also mentioned AEX recently post a City lunch....that it has been whispered that MAJOR news is on the way from AEX

The AEX share price most certainly appears to be hinting this....

[blackgold00] 19/5/2015 08:43

ngms27, "Why has no one mentioned the little snippet that the Gas Processing Plant on Songo Songo Island isn't yet complete?"

its not a major obstacle is it.

[blackgold00] 19/5/2015 08:41

thecynical, ARGO has done very well out of us with their high rates no doubt they would not want to loose Aminex's custom, another lender might not be so greedy and see an opportunity as Aminex's level of risk is reducing as the near term production/revenue gets nearer. they are all out there to do business and make money

[haggismchaggis] 19/5/2015 08:32

20 to 30 mmcfd from Kiliwani, I always thought it should be more than the original 20 as it topped out on a choke at 40. Now we're looking at up to 50% more revenue. 25% extra revenue would negate the sale of 20% of Kiliwani to SOLO, more than that and were ahead. Very clever!

[ngms27] 19/5/2015 08:13

Why has no one mentioned the little snippet that the Gas Processing Plant on Songo Songo Island isn't yet complete?

[thecynical1] 19/5/2015 08:11

warbaby.......don't mention the you know what!

[thecynical1] 19/5/2015 08:10

bg.....what do you mean? "playing one option against the other"? what options do they have? extend at what is probably going to be an ugly rate........or raise more cash themselves? There isn't imo going to be any income by July regardless of whether the pipeline goes on stream "mid year" or not - even if the pipeline is in stream and there are no oroduction / pipeline issues, the first income is only likely to start flowing at a later date.......so.......mad conditions on extension of financing agreement or fundraising?

[warbaby43] 19/5/2015 08:07

No mention of the June deadline for the Ntorya appraisal well but JB's recent discussions with TPDC appear to have been, by implication, highly successful with the explo drills obligation apparently converted to potential production wells and Ntorya-2 on go for end 2015.

"The four main drillable targets: Ntorya Updip, Likonde, Namisange, and Sudi have been attributed 3 TCF Pmean GIIP and these prospects and leads will act as the catalyst for a drilling programme to meet the remaining licence obligations."

Can't help noting, though, that the lads can't quite bring themselves to even mention Moldova.

[blackgold00] 19/5/2015 08:00

thecynical1, we don't know. but it looks like they have more than one option, and they are playing one option against another to get the best deal. I think Aminex is looking stronger

[oilretire] 19/5/2015 07:58

Good to see offshore deep 2 well commitment moved out to 2019.

[thecynical1] 19/5/2015 07:51

interesting RNS but what do,people think of.....

With or without the exercise of this option, however, Aminex has a reasonable expectation of being able to repay or re-finance the remainder of the loan or extend the repayment period, particularly with the benefit of the expected revenues from Kiliwani North.

This as far as I can make out is due in July? Extension on the cards? at what price? anybody any ideas?

[warbaby43] 19/5/2015 07:45

And two items from Wentworth's Q1 statement:

"•Continued working with the Tanzanian Government to finalise payment guarantee documentation in support of the Gas Sales Agreement for gas deliveries to the government owned pipeline.

•The new transnational gas pipeline and processing facilities are nearly complete with delivery of first gas anticipated to occur early in Q3 2015.

And encouraging Tembo news after all which should help sentiment towards Ntorya etc:

"•Continued evaluation of the Tebmo-1 well data and working with the Rovuma Onshore Concession partners to determine a possible appraisal plan and change of operatorship in advance of the third exploration period expiring on August 28, 2015."

[blackgold00] 19/5/2015 07:42

i think we will be hearing a lot more about Ntorya-2 appraisal well in tomorrow's presentation.

"The Company is planning to drill the Ntorya-2 appraisal well in late 2015 subject to available finance or acceptable farm-out offer. Ntorya-2 will target the Cenomanian and the secondary Tertiary reservoir intervals and will test 1.5 TCF of Pmean GIIP."

[blackgold00] 19/5/2015 07:24

"Ntorya 1 was attributed 70 BCF (gross) as Contingent Resources (Best Estimate) and the Company is evaluating options to put the well into development as a pilot producer."

[vike1] 19/5/2015 07:21

Good IMS, but nothing on whether we've started receiving Northcote payments (due from Jan1) or what our financing strategy is (e.g. finding a Farm-out partner)

[oilretire] 19/5/2015 07:20

Main pipeline ready to go.........gas will be delivered into a 36" regional pipeline system, the construction and pressure testing of which is now complete