Amec Share Discussion Threads

[wendsworth] 25/1/2007 10:57

Well we're up to 454/455 now.

What a GREAT share to be in!

[wendsworth] 21/1/2007 21:56

Aim_Trader:Interesting. Is this a column you follow? ...if so what's its success rate?

[wendsworth] 15/1/2007 18:12

broadwood : thanks
dex; there has been significant stake building of late .today's volume was >25 million.are Barclays and ABN acting in their own behalf or for others?
evo8: I'm not familiar with your optical PS terminology in a share trading context .can you enlighten please?

in the light of recent high trading volumes and the share price rise in the region of 7% since Friday a.m. I'm now upping my previous forecast ( BB 703 refers) to 500p by finals with or without further bid interest.

[evo8] 15/1/2007 17:10

I think we have a win-win. If there is an offer, the upside is significant; if the business is broken up, ditto. Look at the effect of SMINs disposal today.
PS Dex : I think this may be laevorotatory

[dextroisomerism] 15/1/2007 15:16

ABN-AMRO also significantly increased their holding - it is all pointing one way.

[dextroisomerism] 15/1/2007 13:40

I see we are not alone - Barclay's have increased their stake.

[broadwood] 15/1/2007 10:33

Issue 2 - wend. 11 - 17 Jan.

[wendsworth] 13/1/2007 14:59

broadwood :Which edition please? I assume it was this week ..as a 3.45% rise yesterday coupled with exceptionally high share volume has to point to something.
dextroisomerism : I absolutely agree with your assessment of the upsides potential together with the likelihood of some special dividends (?) as disposals materialise.
Just have a feeling that following the strategic announcement in December, which gave the company the opportunity to 'spin out' any bad news , prospective bidders aren't likely to stay on the sidelines for too long. We could see a further approach ,prior to the final results announcement in March, with an offer north of 500p - aimed at persuading the directors to open AMEC'S books.
I note that's what has happened this week in the case of Crest Nicholson.
Whatever ...this is a great time to be building up a stake in AMEC . Just had my interim dividend payment this month and in March there'll be a final dividend announcement which could well be more than last year's 7.5p.

[dextroisomerism] 12/1/2007 18:29

Much as I like making a quick buck like everyone else, I would resist a takeover. The disposals will release a lot of cash but the remaining focused business has exceptional potential in niche areas that could have great profit margins.
Potentially this is a company which could have capitaliation of £5-10 billion in 5 years i.e. at least triple of what it is now.
Remember, they have 1000 trained experts in nuclear energy technology (article in Sunday Business middle of 2006).

[broadwood] 12/1/2007 15:24

The 'driver' , I guess, is the comment in Shares Mag saying its a virtual certainty to be taken over this year.

[wendsworth] 12/1/2007 13:15

Well...its up >2% ...back into the 430s. 'Driver'?

[wendsworth] 03/1/2007 10:12

Fred D : I'd have been surprised if there wasn't one! AMEC take-over rumours had been 'doing the rounds' for months prior to the US equity consortium going public and had led to Downer 'declaring its interest'. It won't lead to anything except to keep AMEC in the 'bid spotlight'.

Share price is consolidating in the 420s and will probably creep back up to the 430s maybe 440s prior to finals in March which could well point-up some disposal action.

[fredd] 02/1/2007 09:33

In the Telegraph:

City checks on Amec trading

By Katherine Griffiths
The Financial Services Authority is understood to have opened an investigation into a string of trades in the days leading up to an announcement by Amec on Monday, November 13, confirming it had received an approach from private equity firms Texas Pacific and First Reserve. Texas Pacific offered about 450p a share, valuing Amec at £1.5bn.
Continues:

[wendsworth] 25/12/2006 13:58

dextroisomersim : We seem to be 'kindred spirits' on the subject of AMEC.

In addition to my previous comments plus your observations I've a view that the company may well be in a position to increase its final dividend . Doubtless the CEO has been liaising with major shareholders and will be aiming to keep them on board. If you read between the lines of the recent statement the sole aim is 'to enhance shareholder value'. Whether that is to fend off prospective bidders or to extract a higher take-out price ...holders will benefit.

As to short term weakness ...one should view this as a further opportunity to top -up. Doubtless any prospective predator will as well as major holders!

[dextroisomerism] 23/12/2006 19:25

I'm now in for the long haul. I think there will be some short term weakness but then the share price will go up through the year as various disposals are made and more good news comes in on the energy divisions. He made it quite clear that he will not rush the sales - implying they may take over a year.
I'm not going to take any profits - I can't think of any other company in which I could reinvest the money that has better long term prospects.

[wendsworth] 23/12/2006 15:05

dextroisomerism: Absolutely agree with your analysis. The lead up to finals in early March will be very interesting - firstly on possible disposals which could reap handsome rewards with anything 'PFI' orientated being flavour of the month - and secondly on the nuclear 'political' front where Bush will almost certainly have to yield to the 'green lobby' ref carbon emissions and could safe face by highlighting the economic threat from reliance on fuel supplies from Russia - by switching to nuclear - particularly if AMEC can clean up waste.

As to the withdrawal of the US private equity consortium ...note the careful wording of their statement ...key phrase (?) 'at this time'. If a private equity company are interested in ANY company you can GUARANTEE that it is market UNDERVALUED.

The 'city' welcomed the company's restructuring proposals and clearly respects the new CEO.Whether or not bid materialises I see AMEC trading at500p in 2007.

[lbo] 21/12/2006 16:06

US Amec bid is abandoned
Rebecca O'Connor



Shares in Amec, the beleaguered engineering group, dropped 2 per cent to 421p this morning, after two US private equity groups abandoned a bid offer.



First Reserve Corporation and Texas Pacific said today that they would not be pursuing the offer "at this time", after Amec refused to open its books.

Under pressure from shareholders, Amec previously rejected as too low an offer of £1.5 billion from the bidders.

It issued a profit warning last week after a year-long strategic review, in which it laid out plans to sell its construction businesses and return £100 million to shareholders.

The group has liabilities of more than £400 million.

In a joint statement, First Reserve and Texas Pacific said: "The consortium now confirms that, in light of the board's refusal to provide due diligence access, it will not be making an offer for Amec at this time."

The latest bid was the second Amec takeover deal to fall through this year.

[lbo] 21/12/2006 15:59

Consortium drops Amec bid as books stay closed

Julia Kollewe
Thursday December 21, 2006


Private equity bidders First Reserve Corporation and Texas Pacific Group have abandoned their £1.5bn bid plans for Amec, after the engineering firm refused to open up its books.
Amec shares fell almost 3% to 419p on the news. Last month it rejected their informal £1.5bn approach, which was worth 450p a share, saying it undervalued the company.

"The consortium now confirms that, in light of the board's refusal to provide due diligence access, it will not be making an offer for Amec at this time," the two private equity firms said in a joint statement.

[lbo] 19/12/2006 17:59

Looking weak on the chart

[dextroisomerism] 16/12/2006 12:56

As I've commented on previously, I bought in at 320 because of my interest in the nuclear and energy part of the company. Contracts with Shell for the oil sands of Alberta and contracts in Texas for engineering heavy oil extraction are very encouraging. However, it is the nuclear division - particularly nuclear power plant decommissioning that I think could be particularly huge and have a high profit margin. I think that the present capitalisation is a fair price for the energy and nuclear division alone - but they have the prospect of becoming much larger if managed well. I think the new CEO realises that focusing on this will reap handsome rewards.
The construction and PPP divisions effectively are thrown in for free. These will be disposed of. They have undoubtedly come through difficult times and have made many mistakes. However, construction firms such as this have been in great demand over the last year and I suspect private equity funding will pay a good price for this. Any funds obtained from this sale will be a bonus for shareholders but the remaining business by itself(nuclear and energy) are an exciting prospect. I bought a large stake at 320 but would be happy to buy in at the present price if I had more cash available.

[wendsworth] 13/12/2006 20:31

triguy : How the 'nine expressions of interest' pursue their 'interest' in the businesses put up for sale will dictate the way forward in the short term.

In the medium term ...say next three months or so ...I consider a bid to be inevitable if the restructuring goes according to plan.

[triguy] 13/12/2006 09:40

This will take a bit of digesting but the general consensus here is that this is a good thing for the slimmed down company. They are either rebuffing or preparing for a takeover (well I was always non-commital).

[wendsworth] 11/12/2006 14:51

LBO and previous posters: Currently UP > 11P ..pushing 430p .

Looks like the market considers the reported restructuring proposals will result in prospective bidders being content to hoover up shares sub 450p level.

WE could see some REAL corporate action in the first quarter of 2007 .